The next Ultimate Fighting Championship PPV is just two days away as UFC 306 (also known as Noche UFC) prepares to take over the Sphere in Las Vegas on Sept. 14. It will be a thrilling night with an action-packed card that’s headlined by the bantamweight championship bout between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.
Will O’Malley retain beneath the Sin City spotlight? Or will Dvalishvili finally get his first taste of UFC gold?
Let’s discuss the upcoming main event and the betting opportunities it features by diving into my O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili predictions and picks.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Sean O’Malley (-131) | Merab Dvalishvili (+111)
- Round total: 4.5 — Over (-120) | Under (-110)
- Most likely method of victory: O’Malley via KO/TKO (+120)
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O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Tale of the Tape
Sean O’Malley (c) — Merab Dvalishvili
- Record: 18-1, 1 NC — 17-4
- Height: 5’11” — 5’6”
- Reach: 72” — 68”
- Weight: 135 lbs — 135 lbs
- Age: 29 — 33
- Fighting Stance: Switch — Orthodox
- Knockouts: 12 — 3
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UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Fight Preview
While some UFC fights feature lopsided odds, this isn’t the case for the UFC 306 championship bout. While O’Malley is set to enter as BetOnline’s -131 favorite over Dvalishvili, those odds only carry an implied win probability of 56.7%.
Nevertheless, it isn’t hard to see why sportsbooks are predicting a successful title defense. O’Malley has only lost once throughout his nine-year career and that defeat happened over four years ago. He’s since gone 6-0 with a no-contest in his last seven outings, which includes four knockout victories.
The biggest win of O’Malley’s career occurred when he scored a second-round TKO victory over Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292, winning the UFC Bantamweight title in the process. He’s since defended the belt against Marlon Vera at UFC 299, emerging with the unanimous decision win and ‘performance of the night honors’ following five hard-fought rounds.
On the other hand, it isn’t as if Dvalishvili is some scrub off the street.
The 33-year-old judo expert is heading into UFC 306 on a 10-fight win streak, having not lost since April 2018. All but one of those victories came via unanimous decision, including when Dvalishvili most recently defeated Henry Cejudo following a three-round fight back in February.
Dvalishvili’s judo background gives him the grappling advantage as he’s averaged 6.43 takedowns and 0.8 submissions per 15 minutes. We saw how Petr Yan took O’Malley down six times during their collision at UFC 280 and even though the latter escaped with the split-decision victory it wouldn’t be surprising if Dvalishvili follows a similar game plan.
Nevertheless, O’Malley is the better striker of the duo, so don’t be surprised if he tries to land some major shots early on to help throw Dvalishvili off his game.
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UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Prop Bet Odds & Betting Trends
A glance at the UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili prop markets revealed a lot of useful information.
For instance, O’Malley is favored to win via KO/TKO at +120 odds — something he’s accomplished a dozen times throughout his career. While six of his last eight wins came via knockout, it’s worth noting that Dvalishvili has never been knocked out.
Speaking of which, Dvalishvili’s most likely path to victory is to win by points (+190). The Georgian competitor is 13-3 when his fights go the distance whereas O’Malley is 5-0 in that regard.
Interestingly enough, it’s hard to predict how long this fight will last. While the Over on the 4.5-round total is currently being favored (-120), BetOnline is also favoring that the UFC 306 main event won’t go the distance (-120).
If the fight doesn’t last all five rounds, O’Malley is most likely to emerge victorious at -500 odds. However, if there is some sort of decision in the end, Dvalishvili sits as the +200 favorite to win via unanimous decision.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Predictions & Best Bet
While we should see an evenly contested fight at UFC 306, I predict that O’Malley will retain the gold. I see the champion looking to find the challenger’s chin early on, especially with rumors that Dvalishvili is dealing with a staph infection. O’Malley also has decent enough grappling skills to the point where I’m confident that he can handle his opponent’s wrestling attempts.
Let’s take O’Malley on the moneyline since there’s somewhat decent value to be had at -131 odds.
UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Prediction — Sean O’Malley wins
UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Bet — O’Malley ML (-131)
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UFC 306: O’Malley vs Dvalishvili Information & FAQ
When is UFC 306?
- Noche UFC will take place on Saturday, Sept. 14, 2024.
Where is UFC 306?
- Noche UFC airs live from the Sphere in Las Vegas, Nevada.
What time does UFC 306 start?
- UFC 306 Preliminary Card Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- UFC 306 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How to Watch UFC 306
- UFC 306 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, ESPNEWS
- UFC 306 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV
How to Bet on UFC 306
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