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Another exciting weekend of MMA action is upon us as UFC 302 goes down on Saturday, June 1. The action-packed card features several big-time bouts, including when Islam Makhachev puts the UFC Lightweight title on the line against former interim titleholder Dustin Poirier in the main event.
He's looking to add undisputed world champion to his resume this weekend @DustinPoirier is on the hunt for the lightweight title in the #UFC302 main event! pic.twitter.com/aArWhcyiIE
— UFC (@ufc) May 29, 2024
This is gearing up to be a colossal main event between two fighters who have a lot to demonstrate. Makhachev has been undefeated for almost ten years, while experienced fighter Poirier is aiming to prove he’s still in the game, currently holding the position as UFC’s No. 4 lightweight.
Saturday’s main event is also littered with UFC betting opportunities and Betting News is here to help you get the most out of them.
Continue reading for my preview of UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier, which includes the most recent odds, my predictions, and betting picks for this weekend.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Betting Odds
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, May 29 at 11:23 a.m. ET.
Makhachev vs Poirier Moneyline
- Islam Makhachev (-700)
- Dustin Poirier (+500)
WillMakhachev vs Poirier Go the Distance?
- Yes (+375)
- No (-550)
Makhachev vs Poirier Round Total
- Over 2.5 Rounds (+145)
- Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)
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Makhachev vs Poirier Tale of the Tape
Islam Makhachev (c) — Dustin Poirier
- Record: 25-1 — 30-8, 1 NC
- Height: 5’10” — 5’9”
- Reach: 70” — 72”
- Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
- Age: 32 — 35
- Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Southpaw
- Knockouts: 5 — 15
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Fight Preview
As UFC 302 nears, oddsmakers are firmly on one fighter’s side when it comes to the main event. BetOnline is heavily favoring Islam Makhachev at -700 odds over Dustin Poirier, which carries an implied win probability of 87.5%.
That being said, it’s not surprising to see Makhachev as the strong favorite, given that he’s remained undefeated since UFC 192. The 32-year-old Russian superstar has triumphed in his last 13 fights, securing eight of these wins through knockout/submission, while the remaining five were unanimous decision victories.
Makhachev achieved his most prominent victory by submitting Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title at UFC 280. He continued his success with consecutive defenses against Alexander Volkanovski, initially beating him through a unanimous decision at UFC 284 and then achieving a first-round knockout at UFC 294.
Poirier has had a generally successful run in recent years, securing a 5-2 record in his last seven matches. However, his last four fights have not been as successful, accounting for both his losses. In 2021, he was defeated by Oliveira in his bid for the UFC Lightweight title, succumbing to a submission. He also suffered a knock-out defeat to Justin Gaethje while competing for the BMF title in July of the previous year.
Poirier, however, does have some momentum working in his favor. The Lafayette, LA native achieved a second-round KO win against Benoit Saint-Denis in March, which earned him ‘fight of the night’ accolades. It remains to be seen if he can secure back-to-back victories for the first time in more than three years.
In statistical terms, Makhachev has an advantage in all areas. Although Poirier lands more significant strikes, Makhachev outperforms in accuracy (60% compared to Poirier’s 51%) and defenses (61% against Poirier’s 53%). Additionally, the champion takes three less significant hits per minute than his challenger.
Makhachev averages 3.17 takedowns every 15 minutes on the mat, with an accuracy rate of 60% and a defense rate of 90%. In comparison, Poirier averages 1.33 takedowns, with an accuracy rate of 36% and a defense rate of 63%.
It’s significant to note that Makhachev boasts a success rate of 93.3% as the favorite in the UFC, in contrast to Poirier, who has a 71.4% success rate as the underdog.
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Prop Bets & Betting Trends
The moneyline indicates the favored fighter in a given match, but not how the match will play out. However, BetOnline’s prop markets for UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier can provide some insight into this weekend’s main event.
The first thing to note is that BetOnline is predicting the fight will not last the full distance (-550). This is not too surprising considering that six of Makhachev’s last seven fights ended before reaching the full distance, and all of Poirier’s last six fights also ended prematurely.
To put it differently, Makhachev is the favored contender to win by submission, given the -125 odds. This is not surprising as he has already claimed 11 victories via submission, four of which occurred in his last seven matches. For comparison, Poirier has succumbed to submission thrice in his career.
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Poirier’s best chance of pulling off an upset probably lies in winning by a KO/TKO (+625). Despite his impressive 15 career KO/TKO wins, he has only achieved one in his last four matches. Additionally, Makhachev has never been knocked out before, further raising the stakes.
If the champion manages to secure the victory, it’s highly probable that he’ll submit Poirier in the first round (+325). Out of the 32-year-old’s 11 wins by submission, five were achieved in the initial round.
Generally, the odds for Makhachev to win the fight at any point are set at -310.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs Poirier Prediction & Best Bet
While upsets happen all the time, I’m firmly backing Makhachev to win. The UFC Lightweight Champion is on another level and isn’t showing any signs of slowing down as he mows through the competition. Meanwhile, Poirier is no longer in his prime and has been fighting inconsistently lately, so I just don’t see an upset happening.
I’m also taking Makhachev to win via submission (-125). He’s the superior grappler in this fight and has been finishing opponents left and right. Considering how Poirier has been submitted twice in the last five years, I won’t be shocked if the champ snaps or taps out the challenger.
Makhachev vs Poirier Prediction: Islam Makhachev wins
Makhachev vs Poirier Best Bet: Makhachev via Submission (-125)
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UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier Information & FAQ
When is UFC 302?
- The UFC 302 event is scheduled for Saturday, June 1, 2024.
Where is UFC 302?
- UFC 302 is broadcasted live from the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.
What time does UFC 302 start?
- UFC 302 Early Prelims Start Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
- UFC 302 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- UFC 302 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How to Watch UFC 302
- UFC 302 Early Prelims Channel: ESPN+
- UFC 302 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, ESPN2
- UFC 302 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV
How to Bet on UFC 302
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 302 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.
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