Two absolute studs face off tonight at T-Mobile Park as the Tigers take on the Mariners in Seattle. We are in for quite the treat as Tarik Skubal and George Kirby make the starts for their teams. Both pitchers have WHIPs at 1.00 or better and ERAs hovering right around 2.50 and 3.00, they’ve allowed minimal home runs and struck out plenty of batters this season. Can they do so again tonight? Or will the hitters have some fun?
Vegas clearly thinks this game turns into a pitching duel as they have set this total all the way down at 6.5. The Mariners bats are kind of atrocious, hitting .218 overall and just .204 at home this season. They bat just .215 against lefties, and since the break they are hitting .211. Every single metric is essentially down, and I don’t see them bouncing back against Skubal. Seattle is ahead of Houston by half a game in the AL West, and every win matters, but this will be a tough one tonight.
The Tigers already beat the Mariners last night, 4-2, and now they have their ace on the bump. Skubal has 12 wins already, and his splits don’t change much between being on the road and at home. What matters to me, is that he is coming off a terrible start. At home, Skubal allowed 5 runs on 7 hits to the Royals as he picked up his first loss since June 19th. To me, this is the perfect game for him to turn things around, especially considering he still managed to strike out 8 batters. Against a team like Seattle that swings a ton, I could see him sitting some batters down.
Let’s dive in to our best bets of this matchup!
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners: Pitching Duel at T-Mobile
George Kirby has more strikeouts than hits allowed this year
Game Information – Tigers vs Mariners
- Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
- Date: Wednesday, August 7th, 2024
- First Pitch: 9:40pm Eastern
- Broadcast: MLB Network
Tigers vs Mariners Starting Pitchers
- Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal (12-4, 2.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
- Seattle Mariners: George Kirby (8-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)
Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Tigers +1.5 (-193)
- Mariners -1.5 (+168)
Money Line
- Tigers +122
- Mariners -133
Total
- Over 6.5 (-110)
- Under 6.5 (-110)
Two Studs Face off in Seattle
Tarik Skubal has a 5.0 WAR this season for Detroit
I talked about how dominant Skubal can be, and coming off a bad outing, I think he turns it around. Especially considering the Mariners bats are not where they need to be. But let’s discuss Kirby and the Tigers bats for a second.
Kirby’s ERA drops significantly at home, down to 2.52, while his WHIP drops to 0.93. The guy is simply more comfortable pitching at home. He’s also coming off a few solid outings as well. In his last 3 starts, Kirby is 1-0 and has allowed just 3 runs on 17 hits in 18.1 innings. He has only lost at home twice this year, and like Skubal, I could see him shoving as well. The Tigers hit just .230 as a team, .227 on the road and .229 against RHP. Nothing drastic changes, but it’s not like they are lights out all the time.
This low total seems correct to me, as looking at the splits and recent performances, I would rather back the pitchers than these hitters. The Mariners actually strike out the most in the MLB, but just 7th overall against LHP. Personally, I think Skubal takes advantage, as he has had 8+ Ks in 2 straight starts, and has combined for 26 Ks in his L3 road outings. Despite their trade deadline moves, the Mariners are not a team I trust at the plate, and they are 3-7 at home since the All Star Break. I will not be backing the Tigers offense, but I will certainly back Skubal.
Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Best Bets
Tarik Skubal has 8+ Ks in his L2 starts
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction: Tigers Win
Best Bet: Skubal Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-129) BetOnline
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I will not ignore the fact that this pitcher is having a Cy Young caliber season, and Seattle loves to swing and miss. The Mariners strikeout the most in the MLB, and the most in the league at home as well. Skubal has cleared this line in just 9/22 starts this year, but he also has 4 other contests finishing with 7 Ks, and again, it’s the Mariners.
He’s cleared this number in as little as 6 innings pitched, striking out 12 against the Yankees on the road earlier this year. Again, Skubal is coming off a loss, but he still struck out 8. Even on his “off” days, Skubal can sit some batters down, and I don’t see him having a problem doing that tonight in Seattle. Give me Skubal to lead us to a green ticket!
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