Wishing a joyful Saturday to everyone out there, even those considered less respectable by society. It’s Saturday, arguably the most splendid day of the week. It’s a day to embrace kindness towards all, immerse yourself in the company of those you love, and succeed together.
I’ll kick off our day with a couple of bets from the diamond, all focused on the Rays vs. Orioles game.
Happy Saturday. Let’s Rage.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Saturday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Yesterday the card went up +5.19 units, thanks to a Mr. David Fry, who in fact loves Fridays.
Let’s keep that energy going!
Moneyline: Baltimore Orioles (-166)
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The Stank:
MLB Saturday Must Bet Props: Home Runs, Total Bases & Sides | June 1, 2024
“If you desire to become a boss, you must be willing to bear the cost.” – BossMan Dlow
BossMan Dlow is correct. Today, we’ll act as bosses and support the Orioles with our bets as they compete against the Tampa Bay Rays in the second game of their three-match series.
The Orioles take on Rays starter Taj Bradley after the game-one victory last night. Over the past few years, Bradley has been giving up a boatload of hard contact. According to Batters-Box.com, Bradley had the highest average hitter matchup hard contact in both the default and current season ratings.
Although the two-year starter gives up a lot of hard contact, he does strike out a lot of hitters. If that is the only major concern, I can live with that because the Orioles have three elite hitters on the default ratings and five on the current season ratings. On top of that, they have zero poor-rated hitters on both ratings.
Baltimore has also been one of the best teams scoring in the first five innings at home, scoring on average 3.23 runs. I have also added Baltimore’s team total over 2.5 (+120) for transparency. The value alone is worth even the smallest of sprinkles.
Back Bradish and Baltimore
Conversely, Kyle Bradish is the Orioles’ chosen pitcher for today. His performance has been exceptional since the start of this season. In his five starts, he boasts a 1.75 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05. The 27-year-old currently holds the highest season rating for the day among pitchers. There are eight hitters with low ratings, out of which seven have a strikeout rate above the league average. Although his default ratings, which trace back three years, are still impressive, they don’t reflect his current outstanding performance.
The Rays haven’t been up to their usual standards we’ve seen in previous years; they’re one of the weakest teams in terms of scoring in the first five innings, with an average of 1.90 runs, making them the third worst. They’re only better than the Oakland Athletics and the Chicago White Sox. Despite their ability to make late comebacks in games, I believe the Orioles bullpen will be able to keep them in check.
I am more than willing to put my money on the Baltimore Orioles’ moneyline.
MLB Player Prop Bet: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+117)
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The Stank:
Let’s delve into the player props market.
Today, the number one hitter on Batters-box.com in both the current season and default ratings is Mr. Gunnar Henderson. The Orioles’ stud shortstop has been electrifying all year long at home, hitting .259, with an OPS of .939, while mashing 18 home runs (tied-2nd most). Today, we just need the 22-year-old to go over 1.5 total bases. With an elite rating, Henderson goes over this prop 56.72% of the time. He records at least a hit 71.64% of the time. He has also exceeded this number in 27 of his 55 games this year.
Today’s game is made more exciting due to the advantageous pairing of Henderson against Taj Bradley’s pitches. Henderson has shown extraordinary performance this season when facing curveballs and splitters, boasting averages over .400, an OPS reaching 1.250, and a wRC+ significantly over 300. These impressive stats suggest that we should have the upper hand today as young Gunnar Henderson and the rest of the Orioles team gear up to take on Bradley and the Rays.
Sprinkle of the Day: Gunnar Henderson Home Run (+490)
- In games where he has an elite rating, he hits a home run 26.87% of the time.
Where to find more advanced analytics
My preferred website for finding the top matchup ratings for my daily Major League Baseball bets is Batters-Box.com. While it’s not the ultimate source, it is an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagers. By using Batters-Box.com last season, I increased by 98 units. Still skeptical? You can verify this by checking my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics that assist me in determining whether a player is worth my consideration.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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