While some rivalries have fallen victim to the waves of realignment that have taken place in collegiate athletics in recent years, the Oregon-Oregon State rivalry remains intact even after the Ducks departed for the Big Ten and left the Beavers behind in the remnants of the Pac-12. And on Saturday, Oregon State will look to defeat Oregon for a third straight time in Corvallis as the two teams tangle on the gridiron for the 118th time (3:30 pm ET, FOX).
The Ducks (2-0) started the season ranked third in the AP poll behind Georgia and Ohio State but have dropped six spots in the first couple of in-season polls following two tight wins over Idaho and Boise State.
After pulling out a ten-point win over the Vandals in their opener, the Ducks found themselves in a dangerous position against the Broncos, who took a 34-27 lead early with just over ten minutes remaining in Eugene. But the Ducks escaped again by scoring the game’s final ten points, the decisive three coming on Atticus Sappington’s field goal on the game’s final play.
Is a third straight close contest ahead in Corvallis? Oregon has won 13 of the last 16 games against Oregon State, but two of the Beavers’ three wins have come in the last two meetings at Reser Stadium.
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Oregon vs Oregon State Analysis
So, what has ailed the Ducks thus far? Wins are wins, ultimately, and 13 straight wins, even if they are all close, would see Oregon reach the College Football Playoff as one of the top four seeds.
But if you play with fire too much, you will eventually get burned, and where Oregon was able to survive despite not bringing their best at home against Idaho and Boise State, they may not be able to on the road.
The Ducks outgained the Vandals 487-217 but made things harder for themselves by not finishing several promising drives. They turned it over on downs three times, missed a field goal, and fumbled it away after getting close to the red zone.
Last week, things got hairy because Ashton Jeanty went off for 192 yards and three touchdowns and the Broncos flipped a seven-point deficit into a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter by turning fumble recoveries into touchdowns on consecutive drives.
Mistakes and missed opportunities can be a big part of early games—after all, look at Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois and the struggles that the likes of Alabama, Penn State, and Oklahoma had in wins last week—but a much cleaner performance will be needed for Oregon this week.
After facing one of the best running backs in college football, the Ducks will have their hands full again this week with a rushing attack that put up 362 yards against Idaho State and 237 yards against San Diego State.
They will also have to take on a defense that hasn’t been severely tested as of yet but allowed only 5.1 yards per play against Idaho State and 3.7 yards per play in last week’s shutout of San Diego State.
Oregon vs Oregon State Prediction & Expert Picks
The Ducks will also have to face a team that may have some added motivation given the nature of the game. This is the Beavers’ lone game against any of the ten teams who left the Pac-12 for other power conferences. It is against their biggest rival. It is at home, where they have beaten said biggest rival twice in a row and three times in the last four meetings.
Also, while Oregon State faces quite the uphill climb to make the College Football Playoff, they will be favored in most of their games this season. Depending on how things play out across the country this season, it’s entirely possible that running the table with a win over Oregon could give them a shot.
Will they pull the upset? The Ducks are absolutely the better team, but the Beavers have a real opportunity here.
There will be some scoring, but Oregon will not match last week’s output, and the Beavers should find the end zone at least a couple of times.
In Jam Griffin (38 carries, 249 yards, 3 TD), Anthony Hankerson (40 carries, 226 yards, 3 TD), and freshman Salahadin Allah (18 carries, 92 yards), Oregon State the ground game to control the clock. If QB Gevani McCoy can be efficient and play a clean game, the Beavers can minimize how much time and how many opportunities Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense have to work with.
Oregon should successfully navigate another challenge, but Oregon State will at minimum make them work for it like Idaho and Boise State did. Take the points, back the over, and sprinkle a little extra on the moneyline.
Oregon vs Oregon State Prediction: Oregon to win
Oregon vs Oregon State Picks: 1) Oregon State +16 2) Oregon/Oregon State over 50
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