Olympic Men's Basketball Tournament Odds & Favorites for Paris 2024

Tomorrow, one of the most anticipated events of Paris 2024 will get underway, as the Olympic men’s basketball tournament will begin with three games taking place.

Historically, this event has been dominated by one team. Even as the game has become more global than ever, it has been difficult to dislodge the United States from the top step of the podium.

In 20 previous editions of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, the United States has claimed the gold medal 16 times. Since current NBA players were allowed to participate, which started in 1992, the U.S. has won gold seven of eight times, with Athens in 2004 the lone exception.

Will they make it eight in nine in Paris? There are several teams and players hoping to make this one of the most competitive Olympic men’s basketball tournaments since NBA players entered the fray.

However, the USA, armed with a roster full of current greats and future Hall of Famers, will head into Sunday’s showdown with three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and Serbia firmly favored for gold.

Here’s a look at some of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament odds available at BetOnline.

Olympic Men’s Basketball Tournament Odds

Olympic men’s basketball odds are courtesy of BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline review to learn more about them.

Odds to Win the 2024 Olympic Men’s Basketball Tournament

United States -500
Canada +850
France +1200
Serbia +1500
Germany +2000
Greece +2800
Australia +4000
Spain +8000
Brazil +25000
South Sudan +25000
Japan +100000
Puerto Rico +100000

Olympic Men’s Basketball Group Winner Odds

A

Canada -180
Greece +400
Australia +550
Spain +800

B

France -220
Germany +165
Brazil +2200
Japan +6000

C

United States -1400
Serbia +750
South Sudan +2500
Puerto Rico +6600

Who Are the Paris 2024 Olympic Men’s Basketball Favorites?

United States (-500)

For last year’s FIBA Basketball World Cup, many top American players opted not to participate. A squad led by Anthony Edwards reached the medal round but finished fourth, falling to Canada in the bronze medal game.

Apparently, losing to a team featuring Dillon Brooks and facing the possible threat of another such embarrassment was a bridge too far. Following the tournament, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, and other big names who were not a part of the World Cup team made themselves available for a run at golden glory.

The leadup to the Olympics hasn’t been smooth sailing. On July 10, Kawhi Leonard withdrew from the squad due to injury concerns. Kevin Durant missed all five of the USA’s warm-up games and is expected to miss Sunday’s opener against Serbia. Additionally, there were close calls for the U.S. against South Sudan (a one-point win) and Germany (a four-point win).

But high expectations are justified for a team made up of the NBA’s all-time leading scorer (LeBron), four former NBA MVP winners (LeBron, KD, Stephen Curry, and Joel Embiid), five members of the 2020 Olympic men’s basketball gold medal squad (KD, Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday, and Jayson Tatum), seven NBA championship winners (LeBron, KD, Curry, Anthony Davis, Holiday, Tatum, and Derrick White, who replaced Kawhi), and 11 players who have been named an NBA All-Star at least twice (a group that includes Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton, holdovers from last year’s Basketball World Cup squad.

Keeping this team from winning gold for a fifth straight time will take some serious doing. Will it be a seismic shock? No, given the closing gap between them and the other contenders. But it will be a major upset if we hear another anthem playing after the final on August 10.

Canada (+850)

Canada has never won an Olympic men’s basketball medal, but that is the bare minimum expectation for their Paris 2024 squad.

A Canadian may have invented the game of basketball, but international success has been lacking for Canada. Since winning bronze in the first Olympic men’s basketball tournament in 1936, their best finish is fourth (1976 and 1984). And since the introduction of NBA players, Canada’s only previous Olympic appearance was in 2000, when they lost to France in the quarters and finished seventh in Sydney, Australia.

But the country’s impact and standing in the game has skyrocketed in recent years, and after bagging bronze at last year’s World Cup, their sights are set on the biggest prize.

Oklahoma City Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Denver Nuggets star Jamal Murray are the headliners of the squad, but 10 of the 12 players are currently in the NBA. One of the two that aren’t is Khem Birch, who played in the league from 2017 to 2023 with the Toronto Raptors and Orlando Magic. Former Iowa State star Melvin Ejim is the only player in Canada’s squad without a single game of NBA experience.

Canada has a tough group to navigate with Australia, Greece, and Spain, starting with an opener against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Greece on Saturday. How they handle that first matchup may tell the tale of how well they will handle the pressure of being one of the gold medal favorites. If they can get through Group A unscathed, they should head into the knockout stage with a lot of confidence in their chances to reach the gold medal game.

France (+1200)

At the Tokyo Olympics, France lost in the gold medal game to the United States, who they had beaten to begin group play.

With this year’s Olympics in Paris, a lot of pressure will be on France to at least match that achievement, especially with NBA Rookie of the Year and generational talent Victor Wembanyama in their ranks.

Their best player may be a 20-year-old heading into his second NBA season, but the hosts bring a lot of overall experience to the table. Seven of the 12 members were a part of their team in Tokyo, including four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, Evan Fournier, and Nicolas Batum.

Also, Vincent Collet, who coached Wembanyama in his final pre-NBA season, has been France’s coach since 2009. In that time, he has led them to four Eurobasket medals (including gold in 2013), two FIBA Basketball World Cup medals, and the silver in the Tokyo Olympics.

Having a player like Wembanyama, who averaged 21.4 points per game, 10.6 rebounds per game, 3.9 assists per game, and a league-leading 3.6 blocks per game as an NBA rookie, can take a team a long way. But that level of cohesion and experience can also be very valuable in a tournament like this.

Serbia (+1500)

After shockingly failing to qualify for the Tokyo Olympics, Serbia is back on the big stage and will be aiming for their second Olympic men’s basketball medal as an independent country.

But are they being overlooked? That might seem strange to say about a team led by a three-time NBA MVP. However, they have just the fourth-best odds to win gold.

Canada is on the rise, the host country is harboring high medal hopes, and Germany is expected to be in the medal mix after last year’s stunning World Cup run, which culminated in a victory over Serbia for the title.

Nikola Jokic opted not to play at last year’s World Cup, but after taking home NBA MVP honors for the third time in the last four seasons, he will be going after his second Olympic men’s basketball medal to go with the silver he won in Rio in 2016.

He’s Serbia’s main man, but this isn’t a one-man show. Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic can light it up from anywhere and at any time. He averaged a career-high 16.9 PPG this past NBA season, and he is a seasoned performer on the international level. He was named to the All-Star team at each of the last two editions of the World Cup, averaging 19.1 PPG and 4.6 APG last year and 22.9 PPG, 4.4 APG, and 4.1 RPG in the 2019 tournament.

Another key cog for Serbia is Charlotte Hornets guard and two-time EuroLeague Final Four MVP Vasilije Micic.

Can Serbia keep it close against the USA on Sunday? An upset could really shake up the Olympic men’s basketball tournament futures. But a tight loss would also serve as a strong indication that they should be spoken of in the same breath as Canada and France.

Germany (+2000)

Germany has produced a lot of well-known talent, most notably Dirk Nowitzki. But until two years ago, their international success, even pre-reunification in 1990, was limited.

Prior to Eurobasket 2022, Germany had all of three medals. They won Eurobasket as hosts in 1993, picked up silver at Eurobasket 2005, and brought home bronze from the 2002 World Cup.

After winning bronze at Eurobasket 2022, Germany went 8-0 at last year’s World Cup. That run included group wins over Australia and Slovenia, a semifinal upset of the USA, and a title-winning victory over Serbia, which completed a run few would have foreseen even after their Eurobasket success.

Now comes trying to win their first Olympic men’s basketball medal. To date, their best Olympic finish is a seventh-place finish in 1992, when they lost to the Unified Team in the quarterfinals.

At the forefront of their medal hopes is budding superstar Franz Wagner. The ink is still fresh on the five-year, $224 million extension he signed with the Orlando Magic earlier this month. But before he prepares for his fourth NBA season, he will be counted on for big things in Paris.

It’s worth noting that Germany’s World Cup run came with Wagner missing four games due to injury. Still, his play in those four games earned him a spot on the All-Second Team.

As with France and Serbia, cohesion and experience are a big part of why Germany can make a run. Ten of the 12 players in their squad were members of their World Cup-winning team, including tournament MVP and team captain Dennis Schroder, and Iowa State alum Nick Weiler-Babb was on their Eurobasket 2022 team.

However, a player like Wagner could be a real difference-maker in whether they land a medal or fall short.

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Olympic Men’s Basketball Group by Group Breakdown

Is Group A the Group of Death?

Of the three groups, Group A is the only group in which truly anything can happen.

Spain may have the longest odds to win the group, but they can’t be written off. They finished ninth at the 2023 World Cup but are only two years removed from their latest Eurobasket title, and they bring a lot of experience to the table.

Canada is favored to win the group, but no one in the group is dealing with as much pressure as they are, and there’s no telling how they will handle that pressure.

Greece may have the second-best odds to win the group, but how far can Giannis take them? After qualifying for the Olympics, they squeaked by Puerto Rico and fell to Serbia by 22 in warm-up games, which isn’t overly encouraging. But Giannis is Giannis, and that counts for a lot.

Australia disappointed at last year’s World Cup, failing to make it to the knockouts. But they head into the Olympic men’s basketball tournament with some strong momentum thanks to wins over Serbia and France, and they boast a squad with eight current NBA players.

Will the Hosts Rule in Group B?

With respect to the other two teams in the group, Group B should be decided between the two European representatives.

That said, it would be wise for both France and Germany to not underestimate Brazil. At last year’s World Cup, Brazil overcame a 12-point second half deficit to upset Canada in group play. Also, they throttled favored Latvia by 25 in Riga earlier this month to qualify for this tournament.

In the end though, first place should come down to the Group B finale between France and Germany, which will take place next Friday.

Can Serbia Upend the U.S. in Group C?

Barring the unlikely, the USA and Serbia will finish first and second in Group C.

But what order will that be in?

There are only a few teams in the Olympic men’s basketball field equipped to give the USA real fits. But one of of them is the team they will face to open tournament play.

Yes, even with KD set to potentially be absent, the Americans are still heavily favored for Sunday’s matchup with Jokic and Serbia. But if the USA gets off to a slow start or has trouble pulling away in the first three quarters, things could get very, very interesting.

Other Olympic Men’s Basketball Betting Information

Where to Bet on the Olympic Men’s Basketball Tournament

With the likes of LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Victor Wembanyama taking part, the Olympic men’s basketball tournament will garner a lot of betting interest from far and wide. Therefore, bettors will not be lacking in options for where to bet on Olympic men’s basketball tournament odds.

The odds in this piece come from BetOnline, which has a wealth of betting markets for this event and other Paris 2024 events.

Including BetOnline, below are some of the sites that we recommend for betting on the Olympics.

Best Betting Sites for the Olympics

BetOnline (review)
BetUS (review)
Betwhale (review)
Bovada (review)
MyBookie (review)

Are you unfamiliar with any of the sites listed? Check out our reviews for each site to learn more about them. Our reviews cover available betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile betting, and bonuses and loyalty/VIP programs.

Olympic Men’s Basketball Odds & Favorites: Will Canada & France Challenge the U.S. in Paris?