Starting with their first meeting in 2006, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal have met 59 times. Today, the two longtime rivals could meet for the 60th and final time as they face off in the second round of the Olympic men’s tennis tournament.
Nadal may be the king of clay, and Roland Garros may be his second home. But he enters today’s match in Paris as a heavy underdog to Djokovic, who is the #1 seed for the Olympic men’s tennis tournament due to Jannik Sinner’s absence.
The last year and a half have been rough for the 22-time Grand Slam singles champion and 2008 Olympic singles gold medalist, and the expectation is that the curtain will close on his career sooner rather than later.
But after reaching the Swedish Open final, his first final since he won the 2022 French Open, Nadal set up an Olympic showdown with his Djokovic with a 6-1, 4-6, 6-4 win over Marton Fucsovics yesterday.
If the end is indeed near for Nadal, it is only fitting that he could have one more opportunity to pick up a memorable win on Court Philippe Chatrier, where some of the most notable moments of his career have taken place.
A number of those have come against Djokovic, who he defeated in the French Open final in 2012, 2014, and 2020.
If he can upset the odds today, Nadal will improve to 9-2 against Djokovic at Roland Garros and 21-8 against Djokovic on clay, and their rivalry will be even at 30 wins apiece.
Does he have enough left in the tank to at least take Djokovic all the way? Or will the top seed dominate to move within two wins of the medal round?
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Odds
Moneyline
- Novak Djokovic -500
- Rafael Nadal +395
Games Spread
- Novak Djokovic -5 (+100)
- Rafael Nadal +5 (-120)
Total Match Games Over/Under
- Over 20.5 (-105)
- Under 20.5 (-115)
See more Djokovic vs Nadal odds at BetOnline and bag a bonus to bet on this match and other Olympic tennis matches. Are you unfamiliar with BetOnline? Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review to learn more about what they offer and why you should give them a try.
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Betting Analysis
To date, the most recent duel between Djokovic and Nadal took place in 2022 French Open quarterfinals, a four-hour and 12-minute epic that ended with Nadal overcoming a break and two set points in the final set in a 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (7-4) victory.
Nadal went on to defeat Casper Ruud in the final to claim his 22nd Grand Slam singles title. At the time, that put him two titles ahead of Djokovic, who has since added four to his total to take his record tally to 24.
At this point, Nadal won’t catch that record unless he gets a new body. And it is asking a lot of him, even on his favorite surface and at arguably his favorite venue, to challenge or defeat Djokovic today.
But these two tennis legends are masters of not knowing when they are beaten, and even being in this position is a feat for Nadal. He has absolutely nothing to lose here.
In the big picture, would a loss be the better outcome for Nadal? He and his clay heir apparent Carlos Alcaraz are representing Spain in the Olympic men’s doubles competition, and they have a round of 16 match tomorrow. Not having to contend with another singles match would be helpful for Nadal’s fitness for a run at a third Olympic gold medal.
But that is obviously not the mindset he will approach this match with, and he wouldn’t approach it with that mindset even if it wasn’t against one of his fiercest rivals.
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Prediction & Picks
Nadal is going to give it his all in this match, but will his all be enough to give him a chance to win?
While his powers are not what they once were, that isn’t the case for Djokovic, who reached the Wimbledon final earlier this month just weeks after tearing his meniscus in the fourth round of the French Open.
The turnaround of having to play Djokovic less than 24 hours after wrapping up a hard-fought win over Fucsovics is not idea for Nadal. But don’t write off his chances to compete and at least make things interesting.
After all, this is his best surface, and this venue is where the king earned his crown. And while he ran out of steam in the final against Nuno Borges, making it through five matches in six days at the Swedish Open is an encouraging sign for his fitness after having played so little competitive tennis recently.
I won’t go as far as picking the upset, but I don’t expect Djokovic to brush Nadal aside the way he did Matthew Ebden in 54 minutes in a 6-0, 6-1 win on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Prediction: Djokovic to win
Novak Djokovic vs Rafael Nadal Picks: Nadal +5 & Djokovic/Nadal over 20.5 games
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Other Tennis Betting Information
Where to Bet on Olympic Men’s Tennis
The odds mentioned in this article came from BetOnline, but they are far from the only place out there offering odds for the Olympic men’s and women’s tennis events or other tennis tournaments. At the top sports betting sites, you can always find odds for the major tennis tournaments.
In addition to BetOnline, here are some other online sportsbooks where you can find ATP Finals odds, Australian Open odds, French Open odds, US Open odds, Wimbledon odds, and odds for other notable tournaments:
- BetDSI (review)
- BetUS (review)
- Bookmaker (review)
- Bovada (review)
- MyBookie (review)
- Sportsbetting.ag (review)
There are a number of reputable online sportsbooks that are good for betting on tennis, but we have reviewed all of the above books and highly recommend them all.
If you don’t have an account at any of the sites mentioned, check out our reviews to learn more about what they have to offer.
Want to Learn More About Tennis Betting?
If you are looking to learn more about how to bet on tennis, where to bet on tennis, this year’s most important tennis tournaments, and the top men’s and women’s singles tennis players, check out our handy tennis betting guide.
