Last week, several top college football teams found themselves in scary situations. But while top-10 teams Alabama, Oregon, and Penn State were all among the bunch of teams that were able to survive, #5 Notre Dame was unable to, falling at home to Northern Illinois in the biggest upset of the early season just a week after opening the season with a big win at Texas A&M.
This week, the Fighting Irish, who dropped 13 spots to #18, will look to rebound with a victory at Purdue (3:30 pm ET, CBS).
The Irish scored a touchdown on their first possession in each half but did not score otherwise, and a fourth-quarter interception and a return to midfield positioned the Huskies to bleed the clock and move the ball into range for a go-ahead field goal with 31 seconds remaining.
Notre Dame reached the NIU 44 but stalled there, and Mitch Jeter’s 62-yard field goal was blocked to seal the Huskies’ 16-14 victory.
18th is where Notre Dame is ranked in this week’s AP poll, and it is also where Purdue was picked to finish this season in the Big Ten, which now consists of 18 teams.
But after the Irish went down last weekend, the Boilermakers will fancy their chances of beating Notre Dame for just the 27th time in 87 meetings and the first time since 2007.
Looking for more picks for this week’s top college football matchups? We have NCAA football computer picks for this matchup and other big games such as Arizona-Kansas State, Alabama-Wisconsin, and Boston College-Missouri.
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Notre Dame vs Purdue Betting Analysis
For the Irish, the health of starting QB Riley Leonard may be a key concern.
Leonard, whose final season at Duke was limited to only seven games due to injuries, suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder in the loss to NIU.
According to reports, Leonard should take the field against Purdue. But given how integral his mobility and ability to make plays with his legs are to his game, will his shoulder severely limit him against the Boilermakers?
Running back Jeremiyah Love had 14 carries against Texas A&M and 11 against Northern Illinois, but he may get more opportunities against Purdue if caution is carried out with Leonard.
That may not be a bad thing, as Love has compiled 170 yards on his 25 carries (6.8 yards per carry). It could also mean more carries for Jadarian Prince, who has 68 yards on 12 carries (5.7 yards per carry).
But can Notre Dame’s offense break out against Purdue? Based on what the Irish did against the Aggies and Huskies, it’s hard to see them having a big day.
Along with Leonard’s health, the biggest question surrounding this matchup is if Purdue can solve Notre Dame’s defense.
Hudson Card was nearly perfect against the Sycamores, completing 24 of 25 passes for 273 yards and four touchdowns, and the Boilermakers tallied 583 total yards (335 passing, 248 rushing).
But which version of Notre Dame’s defense will they get? The one that shut down A&M (246 total yards, two interceptions) or the one that bent a bit too much against NIU and allowed three big plays by Antario Brown, an 83-yard touchdown catch, a 43-yard catch, and a 28-yard run, on three of the Huskies’ four scoring drives.
If it’s the latter, the Irish may be in some serious trouble.
Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction & Expert Picks
Notre Dame can still have a 10-win season and potentially push for a CFP berth even if they lose to Purdue, but back-to-back losses to unranked foes would not be ideal.
Unfortunately, the potential for that outcome is high. Purdue may have been picked to finish last in the Big Ten, but they have an experienced quarterback in Card and one of the Big Ten’s better running backs in Devin Mockobee.
It’s hard to see Notre Dame’s offense being able to truly flourish with Leonard not at 100% and able to utilize his skillset to the fullest. Also, their defense doesn’t appear to be as outstanding as the win over Texas A&M may have made it appear. Look for the home team to take this one outright and send the Irish tumbling out of next week’s polls.
Notre Dame vs Purdue Prediction: Purdue to win
Notre Dame vs Purdue Picks: 1) Purdue +7.5 2) Purdue ML 3) Devin Mockobee over 50.5 rushing yards (-114 at BetOnline)
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