Preseason games are in full swing, and you can almost smell the wings being cooked up at your favorite dive bar that is gearing up for NFL kickoff! We’ve covered the top three skill positions here at Betting News in our NFL Fantasy value picks series. That means only one more position to cover, the elusive tight ends. This is a position that for years only had about three viable options for fantasy, and then there was everyone else. However, over the past couple seasons multiple tight ends have exploded on the scene giving more value up and down the draft. So let’s dig in and find some gems!
This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.
Let’s dive right in and start with our early round value picks for NFL fantasy football 2024: the tight ends. It’s time for mock draft season, folks!
1. Tight End Value Rounds 2-5: Dalton Kincaid
Dalton Kincaid, the tight end for the Buffalo Bills, could potentially be the main target for Josh Allen.
In the 1st round of the NFL draft last year, the Buffalo Bills picked tight end Dalton Kincaid. The team’s general manager expressed eagerness to make all the teams that overlooked Kincaid regret their decision. It is evident that the Bills have high expectations for Kincaid. His development as a player was visible towards the end of his inaugural season and during the playoffs.
This offseason saw Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis part ways with the Bills, leaving Josh Allen without two of his primary targets. Despite this, the Bills don’t appear to be worried, likely due to Kincaid’s presence. Presently, Kincaid is a 5th round pick in NFL fantasy drafts, which is an excellent value for a tight end who may potentially compete with Travis Kelce in terms of targets this season.
Kincaid, known for his secure hands, ability to run routes, and create mismatches against opponents, has the potential to be a key offensive player for his team, especially in the red zone. Despite a slow start, he finished the previous season with 673 receiving yards from 91 targets and only two touchdowns. Despite this, he still ranked as the 12th best tight end, suggesting his usage will likely increase this season. Starting from week 7 last season, Kincaid averaged 5.7 receptions and had over 50 receiving yards in six out of those ten weeks.
The statistics may not be immediately impressive, but it’s worth remembering that tight ends often need a season or two to fully adjust to the NFL. With Diggs and Davis absent from the receiving room, Kincaid stands a strong chance of becoming the primary target for the top quarterback in fantasy. Could this be a repeat of the Kelce phenomenon? Time will tell. Regardless, Kincaid is set to be a leading NFL fantasy choice for tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid o77.5 receptions -112 on BetOnline:
Honestly, I appreciate all three of Kincaid’s future props, but his receptions appear to be the most reliable. Last season, he managed 73 receptions with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis on the team. Furthermore, he played fewer snaps than seasoned tight end Dawson Knox during the initial weeks of the season. As highlighted earlier, Kincaid averaged 5.7 receptions in the final 10 weeks of his season’s play. This translates to over 95 receptions in a full season. This might be my favorite future prop that I’ve discovered so far in my articles.
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2. NFL Fantasy Rounds 1-5 Tight Ends: Trey McBride
On Monday, Oct. 30, 2023, at Ford Field, Sam LaPorta, the tight end for the Lions, caught a touchdown pass against Raiders safety Tre’von Moehrig during the first half of the game.
I confess, I’m not overly enthusiastic about Kelce, Mark Andrews, or Try McBride this season, who comprise the rest of the tight ends in the first 5 rounds. This is partly because I believe the wide receiver and running back positions offer more value in rounds 3-5. However, I’m not particularly impressed with the receivers available in round two, many of whom come with uncertainties. Therefore, in drafts where I secure a running back in round 1, I might be open to taking a chance on last season’s top tight end, Sam LaPorta.
LaPorta made a significant impact last year as he emerged onto the scene. As a rookie, he was tied for the most receiving yards (829) and touch downs (7) among TEs in many leagues. His performance was all the more impressive considering he played for the Detroit Lions, a team with numerous other talented offensive players. Even if players like Gibbs or Jameson Williams assume more prominent roles, I remain confident that LaPorta will secure a position in the top three for his role.
LaPorta stands out among Kelce, Andrews, and McBride in several ways. He doesn’t have the age concerns like Kelce, nor does he share Andrews’ health issues. Additionally, unlike McBride, he’s part of the Lions offense, which is well recognized as one of the leading units in the league. To me, LaPorta seems to be the least risky option for NFL fantasy this season, especially when considering a tight end in the top 5 rounds. So, if I’m to take a risk on one, I might as well opt for the youngest tight end who’s in a highly advantageous situation.
Sam LaPorta u7.5 receiving touchdowns for -130 on BetOnline:
While my suggestion to place an under bet may seem at odds with my advocacy to draft LaPorta, it doesn’t rule out his potential to be a leading player in his position. He still has competitors like Gibbs, Montgomery, Amon Ra St. Brown, and Williams. In a scenario where the Lions offense slightly regresses, LaPorta could still achieve or surpass his record of 81 receptions and over 825 receiving yards, which would bring significant fantasy value. Therefore, opting for his under in this case provides some protection against injury in a future bet that LaPorta may find challenging to duplicate.
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