Let’s delve into one of my top G5 conferences in the nation – the Mountain West Conference. This league boasts one of the foremost preseason favorites to clinch the entire conference. However, could there be other teams vying for that title?
Though the Boise State Broncos are not officially ranked, they are heavily favored to clinch the MWC title and are estimated to be around 28th nationally. From my perspective, no other teams pose a significant threat to their championship run, but there’s still a lot of football yet to be played. Last year, all 12 teams had a conference play record ranging from 6-2 to 2-6, indicating a high degree of competitiveness. The UNLV Rebels were defeated by Boise in the MW Championship, a matchup that is likely to be repeated this year.
Odds to Win Mountain West Championship
Last year, Ashton Jeanty amassed more than 1,800 all-purpose yards and scored 19 touchdowns.
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- Boise State -150
- UNLV +350
- Fresno State +600
- Air Force +1200
- Wyoming +1600
- Colorado State +1800
- Hawaii +3300
- San Diego State +5000
- Utah State +5000
- San Jose State +5000
- Nevada +15000
- New Mexico +20000
Boise State is indeed a significant contender to win their conference, being the second biggest favorite behind Liberty in the C-USA (-225). The Broncos are in the race to secure their second consecutive Mountain West Championship and progress to their third consecutive MW Championship game. The conference has remained consistent amidst the realignments, thereby experiencing fewer surprises compared to other leagues. This certainly gives Boise State an upper hand against the rest of the conference.
Let’s explore to discover a Mountain West Champion!
Mountain West is Boise’s to Lose
For the 2024 season, Maddux Madsen is leading the Broncos into the Mountain West.
Following Spencer Danielson’s leadership that guided the Broncos to a 3-1 record and a Mountain West Title, Boise State promoted him to the full-time position for the 2024 season. He took over the reins from Andy Avalos in early November. Under Danielson’s guidance, the Broncos regained their form and clinched the conference title, despite losing to UCLA in the LA Bowl.
Maddux Madsen, a sophomore, clinched the starting quarterback position, outclassing USC Transfer Malachi Nelson. He’s got a great team backing him up. Running Back Ashton Jeanty produced impressive stats last season with more than 1,200 yards on the ground, an additional 500 through the air, and 19 touchdowns under his belt. The team is also bringing back four out of their five offensive linemen and added some powerful receivers through a few transfers. While their defense might not be the most impressive, they certainly aren’t short on talent. For instance, Defensive End Ahmed Hassanein recorded 12.5 sacks last season and Andrew Simpson is a formidable presence among the linebackers.
My issue with Boise is that their four most challenging games will all be away.
Boise plays:
- @ Oregon
- @ UNLV
- @ Wyoming
- @ Colorado State
While avoiding Fresno State, they are also welcoming the overlooked teams from the Pac-12, namely Washington State and Oregon State. Boise State will be hosting all the lower-tier teams from the Mountain West, and their most challenging games might be on the road, which could prove intimidating in this league.
Who Can Hold Off Broncos?
Is it possible for UNLV to surpass Boise State in the Mountain West?
UNLV Rebels
The Rebels appear to be the favored underdogs to potentially upset the strongly favored Broncos. Following a season with nine wins, their star freshman QB transferred to USC, leading UNLV to recruit two impressive senior players for the position. Whoever secures the role will have the support of returning receiver Ricky White III, who recorded an 81-1,386-7 season last year and is eager to even the score with Boise.
The defense of UNLV will undoubtedly face some uncertainties. However, Head Coach Barry Doom has bolstered the team by adding 10 defensive transfers, including Safety Jalen Catalon from Texas. If the team can prevent their opponents from scoring an average of 28.6 points per game like the previous year, the Rebels may pose a challenge to Boise, particularly as their match this season will take place in Las Vegas, providing the Rebels with a home field advantage. UNLV is set to host their two most formidable conference opponents, but they will face a tough fight early in the season when they play against #22 Kansas.
Is it possible for Fresno State to secure a spot in the Mountain West Title Game?
Fresno State Bulldogs
Former assistant Tim Skipper is stepping into the role of interim coach for the Bulldogs for the 2024 season. The team aims to emulate their strong start from the previous year, which saw them begin with an 8-1 record. Despite this early success, they lost three consecutive games in November, causing them to miss out on the Mountain West Title game. However, the Bulldogs have a wealth of returning starters. The offensive line-up includes QB Mikey Keene, RB Malik Sherrod, and receivers Jalen Moss, Mac Dalena, and Josiah Freeman. Furthermore, four out of five offensive line starters are also returning. With such a strong offensive team, the Bulldogs are undoubtedly ready for the upcoming season.
Despite the challenges faced by the defense last year, particularly with defending the run and giving up 200 yards on the ground in MW play, Fresno has taken steps to bolster its team. USC transfer Korey Foreman has been brought in to help turn things around and the return of CB Cam Lockridge from injury should also have a positive impact on the secondary. Lockridge was limited to only 4 games last season due to his injury. While Fresno won’t have to face Boise State in conference play this season, they have challenging games on the road against Michigan, UNLV, and Air Force. These could arguably be the toughest games on their schedule.
This season, Fowler-Nicolosi is leading the Rams’ offense.
Colorado State Rams
I have high expectations for the Colorado State Rams this season and here’s why. Their quarterback, Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, is returning after throwing for 3,400 yards and 22 touchdowns last season. He even rejected substantial six-figure NIL deals to remain with the Rams. This clearly shows his trust in Head Coach Jay Norvell and his commitment to the team. I am definitely on board with him. Additionally, Tory Horton, an impressive receiver, is also coming back for his final season. The team also has three offensive linemen returning, as well as their running back, Justin Marshall, who showed great performance in the last few games.
On the defensive side, the Rams boast six starters from last season, and their secondary is among the top in the conference. Their season begins with a game against the fourth-ranked Texas in Austin, and they will face their rivals, Colorado, early in the season. I anticipate the Rams will triumph over the Buffalos this year, and dominate the rest of the Mountain West. Though Colorado State won’t be playing Boise and UNLV this season, they will confront both Air Force and Fresno on their home turf. If they manage their games well, I foresee a Colorado State team with only 2-3 losses, making it to the Mountain West Championship.
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Final Mountain West Predictions
- #1 Boise State
- #2 Fresno State
- #3 Colorado State
- #4 Air Force
- #5 UNLV
- #6 Wyoming
- #7 Hawaii
- #8 San Diego State
- #9 Utah State
- #10 San Jose State
- #11 New Mexico
- #12 Nevada
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