Happy Monday!
A new week brings new opportunities to seize and enjoy!
Here are a few plays to kick off our week on the right foot.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Last night’s card went 4-5 (+3.0 Units) | Last 7 Days: 23-22 (+14.8 Units) | Last 30 Days: 85-83 (+50.2 Units)
Team Total Prop: Twins F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+124)
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Minnesota Twins Star, Byron Buxton pointing to dugout after hitting double
The Stank:
Today’s slate might not have been the sexiest, but I’ve zeroed in on a promising first-five team total.
The Minnesota Twins will face off against New York Mets starter José Quintana, who enters the game with the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com. Quintana struggles with a high average hitter matchup hard contact rate of 41.22% and a poor average hitter matchup wOBA. Although his season ERA is 4.02 and his WHIP is 1.28, he has allowed opponents to score more than 2.5 runs in nine of his 20 starts—a significant concern.
On the other hand, the Twins feature three elite hitters and only one player who strikes out more frequently than the league average. Minnesota has demonstrated exceptional discipline at the plate throughout the season and ranks in the top 15 for first-five innings scoring, averaging 2.51 runs.
If the Twins continue their scoring surge against Quintana, we could see a solid return early. Here’s to hoping they keep the momentum going!
Team Total Prop: Diamondbacks F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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The Stank:
Back to taking advantage of mediocre pitchers, Washington Nationals starter, Mitchell Parker enters to day with the third worst pitcher rating on the current season ratings, according to Batters-Box.com. He holds the second highest average hitter matchup hard contact rate with 41.04% and he has to face of the best first five scoring teams in the league. Parker has allowed teams to surpass 2.5 runs in ten of his 18 games this season. Since June he has allowed it in six of his ten starts.
everyday I get more and more sold on Ketel Marte NL MVP. pic.twitter.com/QKOjWcycZ8
— Mack Huff (@HackMuff) July 25, 2024
Arizona has three elite hitters in this matchup, Ketel Marte, Randal Grichuk and Christian Walker. Each one of these guys can wreak havoc on opposing pitchers. So far this season Arizona has the second most runs in the first five innings averaging around three runs per game. What is even more juicy is how well they perform at home. They are averaging 3.13 runs at home this season.
With great odds like this for one of the best scoring teams in the league to record three runs, I will happily take this play ten times out of ten. Roll Backs!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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