Happy Friday Jr. Day!
Get ready for an exciting Thursday with some key matchups that offer serious value. We’ve got our eyes on a struggling pitcher and a rising star poised for a breakout performance—this is one slate you don’t want to miss.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
5/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
$10 Cash Bonus with code “BNEWS”
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up went 2-0
New day. New Vibes
Blue Jays F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Blue Jays Will Wagner rounding first base
The Stank:
As usual, the MLB slate is a bit of a snoozer on this “Friday Junior,” but there are still some struggling pitchers to target. Today’s focus is on Angels starter Griffin Canning, who has the lowest pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com’s rankings.
On the road this season, Canning has posted a 5.77 ERA, allowing 38 runs in 11 starts. He has given up more than 2.5 runs in 15 of his 25 starts. Adding to Canning’s struggles, the Angels allow the third-most runs in the first five innings this year, averaging 2.88 per game.
Although the Blue Jays have only two elite-rated hitters in this matchup, they still boast the highest average hitter matchup rating of the day. This season, Toronto ranks inside the top 15 in first five innings scoring, and they perform slightly better at home, averaging 2.67 runs.
This looks like a great opportunity for the Jays to strike early and often against Canning and the Angels.
Jackson Merrill Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
This NL Rookie of the Year hopeful, Jackson Merrill, is in a prime spot against New York Mets starter Luis Severino. As the lone elite-rated hitter in this Mets vs. Padres game, Merrill is poised for another big performance. The Padres’ 21-year-old outfielder has been on a tear lately, recording a hit in six straight games, with an extra-base hit in five of those.
LIVE TODAYhttps://t.co/8Ch59SLUJA
AFTERNOON BETSPRESSO☕️
Bling Rankings GUEST➡️@PrendiBets
-CFB Week 0 Preview
-MLB Bets
-NFL Preseason Analysis
-WNBA Bets️@sweatpantjesus @Shaggy_Bets @C_Marchio2 & @_NZeee
@justsukh⌚️5:30 EST
See you there pic.twitter.com/3ZPDwWS8wv
— Betting News (@YourBettingNews) August 22, 2024
Merrill’s trends are extremely promising. Although the sample size for games with an elite rating is small, he’s recorded at least one hit in 85.71% of those games, gone over 1.5 total bases in 71.43%, and surpassed his 1.5 hits+runs+rbi prop in 85.71%. He’s an absolute force at the plate.
While Severino can be tough at times, he’s struggled on the road, posting a 4.85 ERA in 11 starts. Despite coming off a four-hit shutout against the Marlins in his last outing, this could be a letdown spot for him.
Even though some regression is possible, I’m riding the hot, dangerous bat. The numbers are too good to ignore. I’m taking Jackson Merrill to go over his total bases prop.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @C_marchio2 for all of my picks and sports opinions!
Be sure to check out all things Betting News on X and Twitch!
While you are at it go get some merch at our Betting News Store!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
5/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
$10 Cash Bonus with code “BNEWS”
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4.2/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
Watch Live Games
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4.4/5 Review Rating 125% Deposit Bonus or $25 Free Bet
Bonus Details »
Best Deposit & Free Play Bonuses
Largest Selection of Sports & Games
4.4/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
Odds Open Very Early
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4/5 Review Rating 50% up to $750
Bonus Details »
Very Fast Payout Times
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
Interested in Learning More About Betting on the MLB?
We have tons of MLB betting resources, ranging from daily predictions to expert picks and you can find them below to help you get started.
- MLB Betting Articles
- MLB Betting Odds
- MLB Picks Page
Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more daily sports betting insight and more from the Betting News team.
- Betting News on “X”/Twitter
- Betting News on Twitch
- Betting News on TikTok
