Happy Friday Day!
It’s Friday, and we’re ready to cash in! Back the Blue Jays and Royals to crush shaky pitching matchups and light up the scoreboard early—let’s start the weekend with a bang!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
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Write Up Transparency
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-1
Blue Jays F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-120)
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Blue Jays star, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. points to fans after nuke missile
The Stank:
We’re at it again!
We’ve found another shaky pitcher to target. Los Angeles Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has the worst pitcher rating on today’s slate, according to Batters-Box.com. With only a few starts under his belt since being called up in July, it’s been a rough go—27 hits and 16 runs allowed in just 20.2 innings.
On the flip side, the Blue Jays are loaded with five elite hitters, zero poor ratings, and not a single batter above the league strikeout rate, based on both default and current ratings from Batters-Box.com. Toronto’s bats have been on fire, averaging 7.0 runs in the first five innings over their last three games. They’re also ranked in the top ten for first five scoring this season, averaging 2.68 runs at home.
With Kochanowicz giving up the second-most hard contact on today’s slate and the Blue Jays’ bats heating up, this is the perfect spot to back the boys up north for the second day in a row!
Additional Wager: Blue Jays (-0.5) First Five (-127)
Sprinkle of the day: Vladimir Guerrero HR (+575)
Royals F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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The Stank:
Just like the Blue Jays, the Royals are in a prime position to capitalize on some shaky pitching matchups tonight. They’ll be facing Taijuan Walker, who hasn’t exactly been lights out this season, posting a 5.69 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. In his 12 starts, he’s allowed teams to score over 2.5 runs nine times. Lately, he’s been struggling even more, giving up more than 2.5 runs in four straight games.
Now, let’s talk about the Kansas City offense. They’re ranked in the top 15 for first five scoring, and when it comes to Friday home games, they’ve been on fire. In ten Friday home games, the Royals have averaged a whopping seven runs per game.
Tonight’s Royals lineup boasts six elite-rated hitters, zero poorly-rated ones, and only one batter above the league strikeout rate. With all those factors in play, plus the quirky Friday stat, it’s looking like the Royals should easily cruise past 2.5 runs in the first five innings. If the Royals love Fridays as much as we do, this one’s in the bag!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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