Happy Friday, Junior ( Thursday)!
Today’s props will essentially be my mainstay. If you’re not yet acquainted with my preferred baseball prop bet this season, you’ll soon be in the know.
Today is the day to bulk up those wallets. Let’s earn some cash!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Thursday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Wednesday’s card went 4-4 (+1.19 Units)
Let’s make Thursday feel like it’s really Friday!
Team Total: Astros F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-125)
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Yordan Alvarez, the star of Astros, admires home run.
The Stank:
Seriously! This is my main source of income. I seek these out daily, regardless of the cost. First five team totals are what I live for.
Today’s victim will be Marlins starter Roddery Munoz, who enters today with the worst pitcher rating on Batters-box.com’s ratings. The 24-year-old right-hander has been struggling on the bump all season, posting a putrid ERA of 5.48 and a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed teams to surpass 2.5 runs in four of his 9 outings this season. Not the most significant number, but he has allowed teams to go over 2 runs in seven of his nine outings. He does not give up a lot of hard contact, but he is not getting hitters to strike out or ground out.
Today, the Astros lead both in default and current season ratings, boasting the highest average hitter matchup. They possess an impressive roster of seven elite hitters, split between three defaults and four current players. They also rank amongst the top ten teams for scoring in the first five innings, with an average of 2.63 runs per game. Moreover, their home game season average is even more impressive at 2.93 runs per game.
It’s worth noting that Munoz’s performance dips during night games, with an ERA of 5.67 and an average of 3.25 runs allowed per game. Curiously, he appears to struggle more during these night time matches, potentially opening up a betting opportunity.
Sprinkle of the Day: If Yordan Alavarez plays today, bet hit home run prop
Team Total: Phillies F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
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The Stank:
Just to be completely transparent, as I always strive to be, I am slightly apprehensive about this one, SOLELY due to the limited sample size on Dodgers starter Landon Knack. He has only let one team surpass this number in his seven starts.
However, allow me to explain why this is a good gamble.
Today, Mr. Knack has the second-lowest pitcher rating and the highest average matchup hard contact at 47.95%. He also has difficulty making hitters strike out and ground out.
Ring the bell!
The @Phillies are the first team to 60 wins! pic.twitter.com/rBcloV1UKq
— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2024
The Phillies have the most elite-rated hitters on the day, according to Batters-Box.com, with five in the default and six in the current season ratings. They are the number-one scoring team in the first five innings, averaging 3.08 per game. At home, it gets even better, scoring an average of 3.35 runs per game. In their last three games, they are averaging over four runs.
Knack’s propensity for allowing harsh contact is ridiculous, and this, combined with the Phillies’ excellent matchup ratings, makes this a definite bet for me. Despite Knack’s record of limiting teams from exceeding this number or his other statistics, I would advise caution. However, we are going to proceed with the assertion that the Phillies will take control from the beginning and maintain that dominance throughout tonight’s game.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is where I often refer to for the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets. While it doesn’t have all the answers, it’s certainly an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagering journey. In the previous season, I gained 98 units using Batters-Box.com. Skeptical? You can verify this on my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics that assist me in determining whether a player is worth my time.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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