Happy Friday!
As the Mets gear up for a pivotal Friday night clash, two betting angles stand out: Francisco Lindor’s bases prop and the Mets’ first five innings team total against a vulnerable Roddery Munoz.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Friday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s full card went 4-5 (+1.29 Units). Time for the weekend of the century!
Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (-140)
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Jesse Winker getting ready to hit one to Mars
The Stank:
On this Friday, the Marlins’ starter, Roddery Munoz, faces a challenging matchup. Munoz has the worst pitcher rating and allows the second-highest average hitter contact. His stats are concerning: a 5.67 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and he’s allowed more than 2.5 runs in consecutive starts. This season, he’s allowed over 2.5 runs in eight out of 15 starts.
The Mets have seven elite-rated hitters and rank second in average hitter matchup ratings. The Mets are particularly strong in the first five innings, averaging 2.69 runs. This is nice, especially considering that the Marlins allow the second-most runs in the first five innings, with an average of 3.04 runs allowed.
Given Munoz’s struggles and the Mets’ offensive prowess, there’s a good chance the Mets will continue their trend of scoring early and often.
Let’s hope for a strong performance and cash in early!
Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 Total Bases (+102)
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The Stank:
Francisco Lindor’s bases prop is looking promising, especially when you consider his elite status as a hitter. According to Batters-box.com’s ratings, Lindor is one of the seven elite-rated Mets’ hitters. In a sample size of 15 games where he held this elite rating, Lindor recorded at least one hit in 86.67% of the games.
Lindor has been on fire recently, batting .341 with 15 hits, including four extra-base hits. During this span, he recorded six multi-hit games. The Mets shortstop matches up particularly well against Munoz’s repertoire. Three of Munoz’s five pitches are well below league average, and the two that are above are only slightly so. Against Munoz’s two main pitches, Lindor is batting above .250 with an OPS over .809.
Considering his current form and favorable matchup, the price on Lindor’s bases prop looks like great value. Fridays just got a little better.
Sprinkles of the Day:
- Francisco Lindor HR (+425)
- Jesse Winker HR (+900)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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