Happy Tuesday!
Some might consider our unwavering commitment to identifying consistent value in baseball as insane, but we’re in it for the long haul. With this in mind, let’s start our Tuesday with a couple of promising diamond plays.
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
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August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. Hooked again on yet another team total.
Nationals F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-160)
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James Wood is high-fiving his teammates after hitting a home run.
The Stank:
Some might view this game as a snoozer, but I strongly disagree. With the Nationals featuring several elite-rated hitters, this matchup promises to be exciting. As of today, the Nationals have the second-highest average hitter matchup rating, boasting five elite-rated hitters and only three players above the league’s strikeout rate, according to Batters-Box.com.
Marlins starting pitcher, Max Meyer, who has been having a tough season with an ERA of 5.44 and a WHIP of 1.38, is set to face off against the Nationals. He has conceded more than 1.5 runs in 80% of his ten starts, including seven straight starts. The 25-year-old ranks third in average hard contact percentage against hitters on the day, allowing almost 40% hard contact to rivals at the plate.
Despite being viewed as one of the weaker teams in the league, the Nationals display notable tenacity, even though they are 15 games below .500. They rank average in first-five scoring, with an average of 2.36 runs per game.
After suffering a crushing 14-1 defeat against the Chicago Cubs on Sunday, the Nationals are likely to be driven to face the Marlins’ faltering pitching lineup. The Marlins have been giving up the second-highest number of runs in the first five innings, with an average of 3.17 runs per home game. Given that the Nationals boast five top-rated hitters according to default ratings, and six in the ongoing season, they should comfortably score more than 1.5 runs.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+104)
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The Stank:
When a batter outperforms both the default and current season ratings on Batters-Box.com, it certainly deserves further examination—particularly when it’s not Aaron Judge, who frequently tops the list due to his steady hard contact. It is especially significant when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leads both ratings.
After going 3-for-5 last night with three hits, an RBI, and a run, Guerrero Jr. faces Phillies starter Tyler Phillips today. Phillips has struggled in his last three starts, giving up 20 hits and 17 runs over 11 innings. He holds the second-worst pitcher rating this season on Batters Box and allows the second-most hard contact. Three of his five pitches are below league average, including his most frequently used sinker and slider. Guerrero Jr. is hitting over .300 with an OPS above .805 against both of these pitches.
I am certain that Guerrero Jr. will deliver a remarkable game tonight and I predict that the entire Blue Jays line-up will take advantage of Phillips. I would wager on Guerrero Jr. to make some hits and I’m also contemplating placing a bet on a possible home run.
Sprinkle of the Day:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
My preferred website for finding the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets is Batters-Box.com. While it’s not the ultimate resource, it certainly offers a great starting point for your daily baseball betting. In fact, I gained 98 units last season using Batters-Box.com. Still skeptical? Feel free to verify on my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also employ FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to gather additional statistics to aid in determining whether a player is worth my attention or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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