Happy Tuesday!
The Must Bet Props are back!
The postseason is here, and like many of you, I’m beyond excited for this final month of the season! The World Series feels more wide open than ever, but there are still plenty of games to be played before we get there. Here are my plays of the day from the four games on the slate.
Let’s dive into it!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-1
2024 MLB Season: +15.37 Units
Jake Rogers 1+ Hit (-110)
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Tigers catcher Jake Rogers easily has the best mustache in sports
This might be the filthiest play I’ve written about in quite some time. Tigers catcher Jake Rogers was one of my favorite hitters to wager on last year when facing left-handed pitchers. This season, though, things have taken a turn, and I’ve steered clear of him.
But today is a new day, and there’s good reason to back the 29-year-old righty. According to Batters-Box.com, Rogers has the second-highest matchup hard contact rate in both default and current season ratings. He’s up against Astros southpaw Framber Valdez, who has the highest average hitter matchup contact percentage, allowing almost 40% hard contact to opposing hitters.
While Valdez is typically a dominant starter, he struggles during the day. In 11 day starts this season, he’s giving up over five hits per game, opposing hitters are batting .259, and his ERA jumps to 3.22.
It’s definitely a sweaty play; Rogers will most likely only get three at-bats and is batting below .200 this season. However, the value and hard contact potential are the real selling points. Fade or follow as you wish.
I’m sticking with my mustache brother.
Mark Vientos Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
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In a slate packed with solid pitching and few elite hitters, Mets third baseman Mark Vientos stands out with the only elite rating on Batters-Box.com. After an 0-for-3 day against the Braves yesterday, today feels like the perfect opportunity for the 24-year-old to get his bat going. It’s his first playoff appearance, and he should be ready to rise to the occasion.
His trends are impressive. When he has an elite rating this season, he records a hit 80.56% of the time, goes over 1.5 total bases 55.56%, and leaves the yard 22.22%. Vientos hit .266 with an OPS of .837 this season and finished with a .256 average and an OPS of .815, going over two bases in six of his last ten games.
Grab your morning shower it’s game day #LGM pic.twitter.com/mNViotSyLN
— x – New York Mets (@Mets) October 1, 2024
He’ll be facing Brewers starter Freddy Peralta, whose numbers worsen at home. With a 4.01 ERA, he allows 4.7 hits and 2.5 runs per home start. Peralta primarily throws fastballs but has a solid changeup valued at 4.5; the rest of his pitches are barely above league value. Vientos has performed well against changeups this season, batting .319 with an OPS of .973 and a wRC+ of 175.
The value for hitting two total bases is phenomenal. This is a guy who records 2+ hits 41.67% of the time when rated elite. Give me the lone elite hitter for two bases, and I’ll sprinkle in a bet on the home run, too.
Sprinkle of the day
- Mark Vientos Home Run (+450)
- Jake Rogers Home Run (+700)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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