Happy Memorial Day, everyone! I hope you are enjoying your day off with friends and family. However, I feel your pain if you are like me and are currently at work.
Regardless, I have a couple baseball plays that can make this Memorial Day a memorable one.
Let’s have a Monday!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
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Just fade me. No matter how juicy the stats I spew out here, all my plays are cursed.
Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-129)
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San Diego Padres Starter, Michael King throwing gas against the Colorado Rockies
The Stank:
Starting the week off with a Strikeout prop that features the King, not Elvis Presley.
My King, Mr. Michael King to go over 5.5 strikeouts against the subpar Marlins. However, Miami has yet to allow a starting pitcher to go over this number since Freddy Peralta on May 22. The Marlins have been pretty disciplined on the plate lately. However, they have eight hitters above the league strikeout rate percentage and zero hitters with elite ratings in this game.
In his last start v. AZ, we got a glimpse at how nasty Padres SP Michael King’s Changeup can be.
& Last night against the Dodgers, we saw the whole picture.
King’s CH generated:
➡️57% Whiff%
➡️Avg. 20 inch of Horizontal Break
➡️57% O-swing% & 50% Z-contact% https://t.co/wjM9JjF5BW pic.twitter.com/EzFYGfwROa— Clark Fahrenthold (@CFahrenthold11) May 11, 2024
Let’s delve into the numbers. Michael King has been making hitters whiff all year long. Averaging an impressive six strikeouts per start this season. He’s gone over this number in his last three starts, a testament to his current form. Today, as he faces the Marlins, a team with a high strikeout rate, King’s chances of exceeding this number are even more promising. According to Batters-box.com, pitchers with an average hitter matchup strikeout percentage above 32%, like King, go over 5.5 strikeouts 65% of the time. Today, King’s average hitter matchup strikeout percentage is 32.33%
After finding those stats, I will happily be rooting for some fish to swing and miss.
2-Leg Hit Parlay: David Fry & Kyle Tucker (+112)
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The Stank:
Two things I am a sucker for french fries and hit parlays. I am all over David Fry and Kyle Tucker to at least get a hit today.
Today, both hitters sit atop Batters-Box.com’s ratings. Tucker is in the top five in both default and current season ratings. Meanwhile, Fry has the second-best default ratings while being in the top ten in the current season ratings.
Fry has been on another planet in his last ten games, batting .458, with 11 hits, 4 homers, 9 RBIs, and 10 runs scored. Today, he takes on your favorite hitter’s favorite pitcher, Austin Gomber, in Coors. Although, Gomber has been serviceable this season. The Rockies leftie still gives up a boatload of hard contact.
As for the current home run leader, Tucker goes head-to-head with Mariners starter Bryce Miller, who, at times, has been tough to touch this season. However, like Gomber, he still gives up a ton of hard contact.
18 homers for Kyle Tucker!!! He’s the quickest Astro player to 18 HRs to start a season. Did it in 53 games. pic.twitter.com/b0XBCPswSg
— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) May 26, 2024
Both hitters today have been putting up eye-popping numbers against each of their opponents” pitches. For reference, Austin Gomber is 40% fastballs, and Fry is batting .444, with an OPSo of 1.111 and a wRC+ of 222 against fastballs this season. Most of Fry’s stats look like that against Gomber’s repertoire. Bryce Miller has a remarkable fastball. It is well above league average in terms of value. Kyle Tucker has been all over fastballs this season, batting .343, with an OPS of 1.324 with a wRC+ of 265.
Plus, money for two scorching hot bats. It is a tremendous value. Let’s get a little silly.
Where to find more advanced analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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