Happy Monday!
The must-bet props are back! With some people off work, I have got you covered. If you’re working and need a break, here are four plays to help your day fly by. Let’s take advantage of these elite hitters and underperforming pitchers!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
5/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
$10 Cash Bonus with code “BNEWS”
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
August MLB recap: 95-119 (+31.88 Units).
Yesterday’s write up went 1-1. The Mets hooked us on that Over 1.5 F5 team total.
Red Sox F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-140)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
Red Sox stud, Rafael Devers admiring long ball
The Stank:
After a 100-pitch, 4.2-inning performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he allowed eight hits and four runs, New York Mets starter Luis Severino is set to face the Boston Red Sox. Today, the Red Sox lineup features four elite-rated hitters, no poorly rated hitters, and three who strike out more than the league average. According to Batters-Box.com, they have the highest average hitter matchup rating.
This season, the Red Sox have consistently ranked in the top ten for first-five innings scoring, averaging 2.77 runs. Even on the road, they maintain a solid average of 2.65 runs. With their playoff hopes on the line and coming off two games where they scored just one run each, they are likely due for a breakout performance.
Severino has been solid for the Mets all season, but hitters seem to be catching up to him. He has the third-worst pitcher rating for the day, with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. He has allowed over these averages in 16 of his 26 starts this season. Given the Red Sox’s current urgency, I expect their bats to come alive early and surpass two runs.
Sprinkle: Rafael Devers Home Run (+375)
Matt Wallner 1+ Hit (-155)
Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
The Stank:
Finding daily value in baseball prop bets is crucial, and today is a prime example. Identifying a hit prop with odds under -200 that offers solid value without paying excessive juice is key. Personally, I prefer to bet on hitters with odds of -160 or lower straight. For odds above -170, I recommend combining them into a two-leg hit parlay to achieve plus money.
Matt Wallner has the third-best matchup rating on Batters-Box.com for today’s slate. Wallner has consistently been one of my top targets, as his hit prop is frequently set around this favorable number. This season, he has recorded a hit in 85.71% of games with an elite rating (based on a 21-game sample). Additionally, he hits a home run 28.57% of the time when given an elite rating.
HOME RUN ALERT
MATT WALLNER HIT (-135) ✅
MATT WALLNER HOME RUN (+390) ✅TRUSTING YOUR PLUMS ✅ pic.twitter.com/WVDzExkojx
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 25, 2024
Wallner has been hitless since Friday against the Blue Jays, going 0-for-8 with four strikeouts since then. Despite this, he has been consistent overall this season, batting .260 with an OPS of .948.
Today, he faces Rays starter Zack Littell, who has a four-pitch repertoire. Three of these pitches are below average, while his slider, thrown 41% of the time, is his most effective pitch. Wallner has decent numbers against sliders, so he should be able to handle Littell’s offerings.
Considering the price and Wallner’s statistics, I believe today is a great opportunity to back him to record a hit at -155.
Sprinkle: Matt Wallner Home Run (+350)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
Interested in More Content?
Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly
Sign up for
THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER
Follow me on X @C_marchio2 for all of my picks and sports opinions!
Be sure to check out all things Betting News on X and Twitch!
While you are at it go get some merch at our Betting News Store!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
5/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
$10 Cash Bonus with code “BNEWS”
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4.2/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
Watch Live Games
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4.4/5 Review Rating 125% Deposit Bonus or $25 Free Bet
Bonus Details »
Best Deposit & Free Play Bonuses
Largest Selection of Sports & Games
4.4/5 Review Rating 50% up to $1,000
Bonus Details »
Odds Open Very Early
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
4/5 Review Rating 50% up to $750
Bonus Details »
Very Fast Payout Times
Sports, Casino, Poker & Racebook
Interested in Learning More About Betting on the MLB?
We have tons of MLB betting resources, ranging from daily predictions to expert picks and you can find them below to help you get started.
- MLB Betting Articles
- MLB Betting Odds
- MLB Picks Page
Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more daily sports betting insight and more from the Betting News team.
- Betting News on “X”/Twitter
- Betting News on Twitch
- Betting News on TikTok
