Happy Tuesday!
After a tough Monday, we’re back and ready to dive into today’s bets. We’re focusing exclusively on first-five team totals today, and I’ve found a couple of plays that should hit the spot. Let’s get into it!
I’ll be live later today on Betting News’ Twitch at 4:30 PM EST, sharing all my baseball picks for the slate. Come join me and let’s break down the plays together. Hope to see you there!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Tuesday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 0-2.
Guardians F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+114)
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Guardians stud, Jose Ramirez tossing the ball around
The Stank:
Time to capitalize on another poorly rated pitcher. Today’s target is Minnesota Twins starter Zebby Matthews, who holds the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box.com and is allowing the most hard contact among today’s starters. Matthews sports a 7.11 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP this season. He’s given up more than 2.5 runs in three of his six starts. While the small sample size is a concern, the volume of hard contact he’s surrendering is too significant to ignore. The 24-year-old has allowed 4+ hits in every start this season, averaging eight hits per game over his last three starts.
Zardo go yardo.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/Mr9p5PNndk
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) September 17, 2024
Today, Matthews faces a Guardians lineup featuring eight elite-rated hitters and only three who strike out more than the league average. Cleveland has no poor hitters and none with a higher-than-average ground ball rate. As a team, they lead in matchup wOBA and ISO on today’s slate.
Cleveland ranks tenth in first-five scoring, averaging 2.64 runs. At home, they’ve been even better, averaging 2.86 runs. The recent upgrades at Progressive Field have significantly boosted their left-handed hitters.
Despite Matthews’ small sample size, the red flags make this a strong bet. With plus-money odds, this prop bet feels even better, as you’re not paying a premium for it.
Mets F5 Team Total Over 2.5 (+105)
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The Stank:
Nothing new here, just fading the day lights out of a Washington Nationals starter. On the mound today is Mitchell Parker, who holds the second-worst pitcher rating of the day. The 24-year-old left-hander has been mediocre all season, with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He’s allowed over 2.5 runs in 13 of his 27 starts this year. On the road, he’s been especially ineffective, with a 6.25 ERA in 13 starts and an average of 3.46 runs allowed per game. Opponents are hitting .288 against him away from home—he’s a mess outside of his home park.
Today, he faces a Mets team with four elite-rated hitters, none rated poorly, and three hitters who strike out more than the league average in this matchup. New York also has the third-highest average hitter matchup ISO and the third-highest hard contact percentage, according to Batters-Box.com.
The Mets rank in the top ten for first-five scoring, averaging 2.65 runs. Surprisingly, they’re actually better on the road, though they still manage to put up 2.5 runs per game early on at home.
Despite Parker’s decent outing against the Marlins last Thursday—where he allowed three hits and two runs in 6.1 innings—I expect him to regress against an offense that’s been hungry for a breakout. The Mets should bounce back after averaging just 1.33 runs in the first five innings over their last three games. Bet on the Mets to turn things around today!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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