Happy Hump Day!
Tonight’s face-offs present some captivating chances that are simply irresistible. Brace yourself to profit from a few high-value moves that could potentially make your evening!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Wednesday’s Slate
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Yesterday’s write up went 1-2 (-1.0).
New day. New Vibes
Diamondbacks First Five Team Total Over 2.5 (-105)
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The Stank:
Another day presents another chance to wager on the Diamondbacks’ total team score for the first five innings. Yesterday, we won this bet due to Corbin Carroll’s solo home run in the fifth inning.
AGAINST THE MARLINS?!?
Dbacks F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-154) 2U ✅ pic.twitter.com/7hLLkb4IuV
— Colby Marchio (@C_Marchio2) August 20, 2024
Today could be a favorable matchup for Arizona as they go up against Miami Marlins’ starter, Roddery Munoz. If you’re familiar with my writings, you’ll know we usually bet against Munoz. The 24-year-old right-handed pitcher has a 5.88 ERA with a 1.47 WHIP. He has allowed the opposing teams to score over 2.5 runs in more than half of his 16 starts this season.
Arizona has the highest scoring offense in the majors, averaging slightly less than three runs per game. Their performance is even better at home, where they average 3.24 runs per game.
Arizona also has six elite-rated hitters, according to Batters-Box.com’s default ratings, and in the current season’s ratings, they have eight. The entire team averages an elite rating, facing a pitcher with the worst matchup rating in both default and current season ratings.
For me, this is a no-brainer. The Marlins are second only to the Colorado Rockies, allowing the most runs in the first five innings in the MLB, and that’s just by a mere decimal point.
Give me the Snakes over 2.5.
Royals (-0.5) First Five (-125)
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The Stank:
It’s hard to believe that Johnny Cueto, the 38-year-old veteran, is starting for the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Yes, that Johnny Cueto. The same one who we haven’t seen on the mound since last season, when he concluded with a 1-4 record, a 6.02 ERA, and a 1.26 WHIP. He’s clearly past his peak, and it’s likely he’ll be hit hard tonight.
Currently, the Royals don’t possess any top-rated batters, a scenario I’d typically steer clear of. However, I feel compelled to make this move based on principle. Would others also bet on Cueto when he’s pitching? Probably. Yet, I’m not concerned with what others are wagering on.
Cueto ranks third from the bottom in today’s pitcher rating. Despite this, Kansas City still boasts two players with commendable ratings. Regrettably, Bobby Witt Jr. is not one of them. Nevertheless, I anticipate his impressive performance will persist this evening.
The Angels concede an average of 2.89 runs in the first five innings, making it the third-highest in the league. Kansas City, on the other hand, has a moderate scoring record in the first five innings. However, when playing on their home turf, they score an average of 2.69 runs.
Michael Lorenzen is on the mound for the Royals today. Despite not having the best pitcher matchup rating, I’m not overly worried about the Angels’ offensive power. They have an average of just 2.27 runs per game in the first five innings and their team batting average against Lorenzen is a mere .200 in 55 plate appearances.
Given the cost and the fact that we’re going against someone who’s on the verge of retirement, this is a strong move tonight.
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
My preferred website for finding the top matchup ratings for my daily MLB bets is Batters-Box.com. While it may not be the ultimate resource, it’s certainly an excellent starting point for your daily baseball wagering adventures. Using Batters-Box.com last season, I managed to increase my units by 98. Skeptical? Feel free to verify this on my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also utilize FanGraphs, Statmuse, and ESPN to access additional stats and determine whether a player is worth investing my time in or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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