MLB is notorious for juice, but finding value is not as difficult as it seems. There are plenty of good spots using hit parlays, RBIs, Runs and team scoring props. There are plenty of great spots on the board today to sprinkle. We’ll use trends and projections to find the best value bets on the board for tonight’s slate.
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MLB Picks
MLB Odds
Logan Gilbert Over 18.5 Outs (+128)
Fade the Whitesox. Say it with me: Fade. The. White. Sox. This is not news, but the Chicago White Sox are not very good. Logan Gilbert on the other hand, is very good. This is one of the top-rated pitcher props on today’s slate. Getting Gilbert to shut down the Whitesox for just over 6 innings should not be plus-money. Betalytics has the xWin probability at 52%. The line should be closer to -110, giving this nearly 40 points of value.
The Whitesox have only one batter with favourable statistics against Gilbert in Gavin Sheets. The sample size isn’t big, but only one of the Whitesox batters has a good profile to combat Gilbert’s pitching arsenal (Luis Robert). The rest of the Whitesox batters have average or below average profiles against Gilbert. There is nothing to indicate that the Whitesox are capable of getting to Gilbert and with nearly 40 cents of value, this is a great spot.
Seth Lugo Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-135)
Seth Lugo has been playing with after a red hot start and tonight is the night it burns him. His ERA is a sterling 2.13, but his xERA is tells a much different story at 3.79. That is a recipe for regression against a terrifying Yankees lineup that boasts the likes of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto. The Yankees have the the offence in baseball from top to bottom, meaning regression could come from a lot of different options in batting order. Even with the juice, this line has value. Lugo is projected to give up 3.42 earned runs today, with an xWin of 63%. At 63%, the line should be closer to -170, giving this 35 points of value. But wait, there’s more…
When Lugo struggles, it can get bad in a hurry. There is a second prop that is considered to be the most valuable on the slate. Under 17.5 Outs at +140 is shocking. The model gives this line an expected win of 60%, meaning the line should be closer to -150. At +140, with 90 points of value, that is incredible value. The reason for this is because the Royals have used their bullpen heavily in their series against Seattle. The bullpen needs a break, but if Lugo gets roughed up, the Royal may not have a choice. Given that he’s due for regression, both of these are good spots.
Aaron Judge Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105)
If we’re fading Seth Lugo, and we are for all the reasons mentioned, Aaron Judge is one of the reasons why. After a sluggish start to the season, Judge has been running up the stats. Tonight, he’s projected to sail over this line. There are so many ways to play this, and there is a distinct possibility he cashes this with home run. Judge is projected for 1.09 Runs scored, 1.1 RBIs and and 1.25 Hits. His 1+ Run and 1+ RBI lines sit at plus-money and are good alternatives to this play.
Judge is arguable baseball’s best hitter and Lugo is due for regression. Given how hard Judge hits the ball and his ability to get on base, there are many ways for this bet to get over the line outside of the obvious home run. He’s hit this line in 9 of his last 10, scored a run in in 9 of 10 and recorded an RBI in 8 of 10. If the Yankees are going to get to Lugo, Aaron Judge is likely to play a major role.
Henderson & Rutschman 1+ Hit (+105)
My favorite play of the day. Both Henderson and Rutschman have hits in 9 of their last 10 and this parlay has cashed in 8 of 10. Anything with an 80% success rate shouldn’t be anywhere close to plus-money. Rutschman 1+ Hit has an xWin of 80%, while Henderson’s 1+ Hit has a 72% chance of hitting. Removing the 80% success rate of the parlay, if you combined these lines, the odds should be -136. That is 39 points of value on two of the most consistent hitters in the MLB and I will take that every day of the week (I have been taking this play with regularity).
Looking at Ryan Pepiot, neither of these players have faced him yet. However, given his pitching arsenal, both are considered to have A-grade matchups. Both have a Hard Hit% of more than 43% and an expected slugging percentage of more than .480. Both barrel the ball with regularity against Pepiot’s pitching arsenal and should be able to find themselves on base in tonight’s matchup.
