NFL 2024 Fantasy Draft Primer & How to Bet It: Running Backs

Since beginning my fantasy football research this season, I’ve been amazed with just how deep the running back position feels. This leads to interesting draft strategies like getting a top tier QB or TE early in the draft. Last week we discussed my three favorite running backs for NFL fantasy football in rounds 5-8. Each running back holds with sneaky value or are, in my mind, the clear cut RB to draft in those rounds. Today, it’s time to dig for gems all the way in round 8 and beyond.

This is an ongoing series to highlight players who REEK of value in NFL fantasy drafts. We aren’t talking about McCaffrey with the 1st overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the 1st round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that I’ll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BETONLINE.

So without further ado, let’s kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2024 top 3 value picks: the running backs. It’s mock draft season baby!!!

1. Running Back Value Round Nine: Zach Moss

Zach Moss has a new home in Cincinnati and could have a huge jump in fantasy value

Every time I mock draft I’m blown away by the value that can be had in the running back position from round 7 and on. I’ve planted my flag and will be taking my top two receivers and either a QB or a tight end before taking my second RB in every draft. And round 9 has several names I have my eyes on. Zach Moss however, is the one I will be targeting the most.

Moss has a new home in Cincinnati, where he will be the lead back for the Bengals high flying offense. While Moss has never been better than the 31st best running back in PPR formats he is coming off his best season in Indiana. He recorded 794 rushing yards and 192 receiving yards with 7 total touch downs. This was a Colts team who was lead by backup quaterback Minshew for much of the season.

Now in Cincinnati Moss has the opportunity to eat the same way Mixon has for several seasons. Opposing defenses will have to respect Burrow and Chase, which should allow more opportunities for Moss to find space and lanes. While not elite, Moss showed improvement in the receiving department last season. In a pass-happy offense like Cincinnati’s, he could contribute receptions and receiving yards, which will help boost his value in .5 PPR and full PPR leagues.

Mixon has averaged 12.33 touchdowns in his three seasons with Joe Burrow. If Moss continues to improve he will be in a great spot to set career highs in TD’s, receptions and rushing yards in this high powered offense, making him a NFL fantasy steal.

Zach Moss o5.5 rushing touchdowns for -112 on BetOnline:

Moss had 5 rushing touchdowns last season, which was a career best. But that was on a Colts team who struggled to score. With Burrow under center Mixon had 9, 7 and 13 rushing touchdowns. As long as Moss stays healthy he has a great chance of flying past this line. He has little to no competition and has been successful as a bruiser at the line of scrimmage in the past.

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2. NFL Fantasy Round Ten Value Running Backs: Tyjae Spears

Spears could be part of a productive tandem in Tennessee

The Tennessee Titans will enter this season without their most valuable weapon, Derick Henry. The future hall-of-famer has landed in Baltimore, and the Titans look to move away from a run first offense for the first time in years. They brought in former Cowboy Tony Pollard to be their lead back, but also spent significant draft capital in last seasons draft on Tyjae Spears.

Spears had a season to learn from one of the best running backs of the past 10 years. Even with Henry eating up the majority of the workload he still managed to put up 453 rushing and 385 receiving yards, along with 3 touch downs. His shimmy shakes and ability to split ankles made him a slippery complement to the bruising Henry. Now Spears has a chance to take over the backfield and become an NFL fantasy asset.

While Pollard will cap Spears’ ceiling, there’s a chance he could take over as the lead back. Pollard had a nice season on a very productive Dallas Cowboys offense. But many of his underlying metrics painted a running back who capitalized playing behind one of the best offense lines in the league.

This is an upside play where you are banking on Spears to increase in all facets of the game. While his receiving yards may be similar, he should eclipse three total touchdowns and record much more rushing yards. And he is one injury away from being the lead guy. This pick screams value in NFL fantasy drafts.

Tony Pollard u5.5 rushing touchdowns for -142 on BetOnline:

While Spears doesn’t have any future bets yet, his competition does. And the sportsbooks have set this line low for a reason. The -142 for a meager 6 touchdowns indicates that Vegas, much like me, expect Spears to have a larger share in the run game. While this bet doesn’t hold as much value as other lines I have highlighted, it’s a perfect illustration of why Spears is a must draft in NFL fantasy.

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3. Value Running Backs NFL Fantasy Round Twelve: JK Dobbins

JK Dobbins will be on a new team and have a fresh start

Nothing has gone right for JK Dobbins in his young NFL career. After playing his entire rookie season he has only played 9 games in the following three seasons. However, when he has been on the field he has shown why he was considered an elite prospect in his draft year. Now he is out of Baltimore and on the Chargers who will look to be a run first team under new head coach Harbaugh.

There is risk drafting Dobbins, but this late in the draft most others are taking kickers or defenses. This is one of the highest ceilings you will find in the last rounds of your fantasy draft. Dobbins possesses undeniable talent. When healthy, he’s showcased his ability to be a dynamic threat with a combination of power and receiving skills. In his rookie year (2020), he averaged a strong 6.0 yards per carry.

While the Chargers have Gus Edwards, Dobbins is reportedly healthy and could compete for the starting role. Even in a committee backfield, his talent could lead to significant touches. If he returns to health he could not only be a steal in NFL fantasy drafts this late, but he could be a league winner.

NFL Fantasy Football 2024 Late Round Value Picks & Bets: Running Backs

1. Running Back Value Round Nine: Zach Moss

2. NFL Fantasy Round Ten Value Running Backs: Tyjae Spears

3. Value Running Backs NFL Fantasy Round Twelve: JK Dobbins

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