Florida finally made it to Edmonton and look to take a 3-0 stranglehold in the Stanley Cup Final. As the series shifts to Edmonton, expect a much different atmosphere than games 1 and 2. Oilers fans are starved for Cup Final hockey. The Oilers haven’t been to the Cup Final in 20 years. A new rink, a few superstars and a must win game make this a powder keg. Let’s dive into the best bets from the model heading into tonight’s crucial Game 3.
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NHL Odds
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Everything you need to know about Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final (Where to Watch, Time, Odds)
Over 5.5 (-105)
Florida has proven they can score. They can hold up their end of the bargain. The Oilers, the best offensive team in the league, have yet to find their groove. Bobrosvky leads the Conn Smythe conversation through two games because of his stellar play. The Panthers held the Oilers to far few chances in Game 2 and that is unlikely to be the case, again. The Panthers have kept McDavid and Draisaitl in check, but we’ve yet to see those two in a Cup Final game on home ice.
Knoblauch is likely to go to the nuclear option of playing his two superstars with Zach Hyman and daring Florida to stop them. While Florida is excellent defensively, no one has unlocked the secret to stopping that trio. Given the expectation that those three are going to have an impact on the most important game of the season, and Florida’s ability to capitalize on mistakes, the model expects goals. If you want to play it diferentl, play Over 4.5 and EDM ML at +140.
Vladimir Tarasenko Over 1.5 Shots (-140)
We’re going right back to our main man. The “Best Bets King” of the Stanley Cup Final. Vladimir Tarasenko has been money for us over the last fortnight. He’s hit this line in five straight games and seven of his last 10. He is thriving in the matchup against the Oilers bottom-six players. He’ driving the net, following plays and collecting rebounds. His line has been a key factor in Florida’s 2-0 series lead.
As the series shifts to Edmonton, he won’t have the benefit of the best matchup. But similar to Game 2, he only needed one net front drive to tally two shots on net. In a game where Florida is expected to be trailing, Tarasenko is a guy who can score. If Florida starts funneling pucks to the net, expect him, Reinhart, Tkachuk and Verhaeghe to lead the way. Regardless of a different matchup, Tarasenko will have plenty of opportunities against the Oilers bottom-six to generate scoring chances.
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots (+100)
After two games where he’s been remarkably quiet, tonight is the night for vintage Connor McDavid. If there were ever a time to step up and lead your team into battle, tonight is it. One point though two games is high uncharacteristic of him and I do not expect that to continue. His first Cup Final game on home ice is the perfect storm for McDavid to put his stamp on the series. He needs a Connor McDavid is doing things type of performance in Game 3.
To that end, getting his shots at plus-money presents unique value. His shot attempts in the playoffs have skyrocketed. In the most important game of his career, McDavid knows he needs to drive the bus, offensively. He’s going to use his speed and skill to get puck to the net, drive chaos in the Florida zone and create scoring opportunities. He’s projected for 4.26 shots tonight and given the importance of the game, it is likely his stat line has quite a few crooked numbers. Tonight could be a legacy game for best player in the league and he knows it. If you’re looking for best bets, betting on the best player to have a big game is a good place to start.
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 Shots (-105)
If we’re picking a goalscorer tonight, Zach Hyman is the guy. Betalytics gives him more than a 43% chance to find the back of the net on tonight’s game. He leads the NHL in playoff goal scoring this year and by a decent margin. Like McDavid and Draisaitl, he’s yet to find the scoresheet. Given that he’s going to paired with them in tonight’s must-win game, expect Hyman to be at the net front. The two headed monster will be funnelling pucks to the bet front, looking to penetrate the Wall of Bob.
Hyman is a consistent net front presence and a really effective one at that. Given the Oilers desperate need for offense, Hyman can be a catalyst as a volume shooter. His ability to get shots in succession off of rebounds makes this line enticing. He’s capable of knocking off two or three shots in the span of a few seconds. He thrives in this role, particularly when he’s with McDavid and Draisaitl. The Oilers need to get to Bobrovksy and Hyman is a good bet to be that guy.
