Ladies and Gentlemen, we are back. After a much needed, relaxing family vacation, I have returned from South of the Border, refreshed and ready to take the sportsbooks for everything they have. What better way to get back on track than with a MASSIVE (sarcasm) eight game MLB Slate on this fine Thursday afternoon. Nevertheless, we will be taking a trip to Queens as two NL East Rivals face off in the first of a four game series. The Atlanta Braves travel up the coast to face the New York Mets in this divisional showdown.
Classic NL East Rivalry
The regular season series between these squads is all tied up at 3 games a piece, with four more being played this weekend at Citi Field. Last time in New York, the Braves were able to steal 2/3 games against the Mets, but it is New York who has looked much better recently.
The Braves lead the Mets by 1.5 games for 2nd place in the NL East. Atlanta is 9 games behind the 1st place Phillies, but they are 54-46 on the year. However, Atlanta is just 24-25 on the road, and they are 1-4 since the All Star Break, including 4 straight losses. This is game one of a 7 game road trip for the Braves, and tonight could certainly be defined as a “get right” game for Atlanta. On the flip side, the Mets are catching the Braves and have jumped into a Wild Card spot. Despite being 3rd in their division, New York has the 5th best record in the MLB, and has won 4/6 since the break. The Mets are 26-26 at home this year and are 11-4 since July 6th. One could argue they are peaking at the right time.
Let’s dive deeper into today’s matchup by looking at the starting pitchers and betting odds.
Braves vs Mets Game Information: NL East Showdown
Luis Severino pitched very well against the Braves at home in May
Matchup Information – Braves vs Mets
- Venue & Location: Citi Field (Queens, NY)
- Date: Thursday, July 25th, 2024
- First Pitch: 7:10pm Eastern
Braves vs Mets Starting Pitchers
- Atlanta Braves: Chris Sale (13-3, 2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)
- New York Mets: Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)
Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Braves -1.5 (+160)
- Mets +1.5 (-180)
Money Line
- Braves -106
- Mets -104
Total
- Over 7 (-116)
- Under 7 (-104)
Low Total with Two Starting Studs
Chris Sale has won three straight starts, and 5 of his last 6
Despite the Braves 4 straight since the All Star Break, Chris Sale has been a shining light in this rotation. He leads the entire league in wins, coming off 3 straight, however he has not pitched against the Mets yet this season. But as you can see, we still have a ridiculously low total sitting at 7, even if it is juiced to the over. Sale has been a stud, especially in recent starts winning 5 of his L6 and posting a 2.05 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP during that stretch.
It will be interesting to see if Sale can keep it up, especially after looking at the Mets’ splits. New York hits .251 as a team this season, but that drops down to .234 at Citi Field this year. Not great. However, they do love facing lefties. Mets’ batters hit .264 against LHP this season, which is 5th in the MLB. With New York facing Sale for the first time this year, their hitters will have little familiarity with his stuff, which could make it difficult. Plus, this is the Mets first game at home since the break, and with their splits dropping significantly in Queens, this could be a good time to fade them.
But Severino Has Been Great?
Luis Severino had a good outing at home against the Braves back in May, but that was a long time ago. In that game, he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits and a home run. He walked 3 batters and struck out 4, and even though he did not pick up the win, the Mets walked away victorious. Since then Severino has posted a 5-1 record in 11 starts. He is coming off two straight wins, allowing just 2 combined runs on 6 hits in 12.1 innings of those ball games, but arguably the Braves hitters will be a much tougher matchup.
Severino certainly pitches better at home, and the Braves bats statistically aren’t as dangerous on the road or against RHP, but something tells me it’s the Braves tonight.
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Best Bets
Matt Olson and the Braves look to beat the Mets at Citi Field tonight
Braves vs Mets Prediction: Braves Win
Best Bet: Braves ML (-104) BetOnline
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You could say I’m wearing my contrarian hat tonight as the stats say New York wins this game. They are the better team in terms of splits, both home/away and RHP/LHP on both sides of the dugout, and they’ve been much more dominant recently. However, I think the fact that they haven’t seen Sale yet this year is the kicker. In his two most recent losses, Chris Sale has given up a combined 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 14 innings. The Braves lost those games 1-0 @ the White Sox, and 2-1 @ Washington. The problem was not Sale, but rather his lack of run support from his team.
Tonight, I don’t see that being an issue because the Braves have a great matchup against Severino, whom they’ve seen before. The Braves have one elite hitter, two more with great matchups, and three others who are above average facing Severino tonight, according to batters-box.com (Do NOT forget the hyphen). Point being, I’ll hold my nose and back the Braves to figure out their bats on the road tonight.
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