Mailbag: Matthews' scoring, next contracts for Crosby, Lafreniere

Mailbag: Matthews' scoring, next contracts for Crosby, Lafreniere

Dan Rosen from NHL.com responds to weekly questions.

© Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images

Here is the Aug. 21 edition of the weekly NHL.com mailbag, where we answer your questions asked on X. Send your questions to @drosennhl and @NHLdotcom, and tag it with #OvertheBoards.

Auston Matthews, over/under 65 goals? — @mfav2010

Under.

Last season, Matthews netted 69 goals, marking the 25th instance in NHL history that a player has scored at least 65 in a single season. However, it’s uncommon for this to occur numerous times, and especially unusual for it to happen in consecutive seasons.

Wayne Gretzky (four times), Mario Lemieux (four), Brett Hull (three), Phil Esposito (three), Jari Kurri (two) and Mike Bossy (two) are the only players with multiple 65-goal seasons. Gretzky, Hull, Lemieux, Esposito and Kurri are the five who have done it in back-to-back seasons.

This doesn’t imply that Matthews lacks the ability. Currently, he is the top goal scorer in the game. Surely, he has the capability. However, opting for less than 65 this season as a response to this question is merely a statistical probability considering its rarity. Matthews will also be adapting to a somewhat new system under Coach Craig Berube. The Maple Leafs may potentially decrease their average of 3.63 goals per game from last season to reduce the 3.18 they conceded. If this happens, Matthews’s goal tally might drop slightly, which is another justification to select the lower figure.

Now watch him score 70 and prove my prediction wrong.

I guess one thing I’m wondering is if the Rangers have had any contract talks regarding an extension with Alexis Lafreniere? — @mattpod02

As anticipated, everything is quiet with the Rangers and General Manager Chris Drury. The Rangers are known for rarely having leaks. The most fitting term would be tight-lipped.

But we know Lafreniere is important to the Rangers. He is entering the second season of a two-year, $4.65 million contract ($2.325 million average annual value) he signed Aug. 24, 2023. He had 57 points (28 goals, 29 assists) in 82 games last season playing regularly on a line with Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck. The Rangers expect the chemistry between them to return quickly this season. If it does, it should be another big season for all three. Lafreniere is only starting to touch his potential.

I have no doubt Lafreniere will sign a new contract with the Rangers at some point. They won’t lose him. He’s a huge part of their present and future. But New York’s cap structure for next season and several beyond will be determined by goalie Igor Shesterkin‘s next contract. Shesterkin also has one year left on his current contract. He needs to be the top priority, before Lafreniere and defenseman K'Andre Miller, who also has one year left on his contract, are taken care of.

In addition to all that, Lafreniere should not hurry to sign. A strong start to the season will enhance his value.

Do you see more rogue offer sheets becoming mainstream any time soon? They are interesting and cause movements and excitement, also scary too. — @gregmaddensoc

Fans find offer sheets enjoyable, and they’re profitable for the players who sign them, but they can create division among teams and general managers. However, they make for great off-season entertainment. While they may not become mainstream, they’re a tool that should be used more frequently in light of the growing salary cap, particularly by teams that want to avoid a complete overhaul but need a larger pool of young, potential-filled, NHL-ready players. The St. Louis Blues are a prime example of such a team.

The Blues were in the perfect position with their cap situation to take advantage of the Edmonton Oilers and their cap position by signing defenseman Philip Broberg to a two-year, $9.16 million contract ($4.58 million AAV) and forward Dylan Holloway to a two-year, $4.58 million contract ($2.29 million AAV).

The Oilers, with future large contracts coming for forwards Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, chose not to match, so they will receive the draft pick compensation as structured in the Collective Bargaining Agreement: a second-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft for Broberg and a third-round pick in 2025 for Holloway. Essentially, the Blues traded two draft picks for two players they can put in their lineup this season. That’s a win for St. Louis and its hopes of getting back into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The stakes are high. Broberg and Holloway had to be signed to substantial contracts to deter the Oilers from matching. Despite being 23 and 22 years old respectively, Broberg and Holloway have yet to justify their large contracts from St. Louis. However, both were first-round picks, with Broberg selected No. 8 in the 2019 NHL Draft and Holloway No. 14 in the 2020 NHL Draft. The Blues are wagering that this season they will start to fulfill their potential and thus make their hefty salaries worthwhile. The Oilers, on the other hand, can’t afford to take that risk. That’s the crux of the matter. The Blues strategically singled out a team they knew was financially constrained and pursued two restricted free agents they were prepared to invest heavily in. Though such scenarios are uncommon, they do occur. More teams should exploit this system to enhance their playoff prospects.

What’s your take on Yaroslav Askarov? Who’s your favorite team to land him? –@Jagr10190

According to Kevin Weekes of NHL Network, Askarov, the 22-year-old goalie for the Nashville Predators, has requested a trade. The Predators’ general manager, Barry Trotz, released a statement on Monday indicating the anticipation for Askarov to join training camp in September and compete for a position. This is all reasonable, and here’s why:

The Predators made their choice when they signed goalie Juuse Saros to an eight-year, $61.92 million contract ($7.74 million AAV) on July 1. He still has one year remaining on his current contract before the new deal kicks in, which means they’re banking on Saros to be their No. 1 goalie for the foreseeable future. Scott Wedgewood signed a two-year, $3 million contract ($1.5 million AAV) on July 1 to be Saros’ backup. It’s up to Askarov to beat out Wedgewood for that spot, but the Predators clearly are thinking that’s at least one season away, or why else would they sign Wedgewood to a two-year deal. Askarov is coming off a sensational season with Milwaukee of the American Hockey League, going 30-13-1 with a 2.39 goals-against average, .911 save percentage and six shutouts in 44 games. And in two games with the Predators he had a 1.47 GAA and .943 save percentage.

Askarov evidently believes he’s prepared for the NHL, yet if he remains with Nashville, he could be destined for another AHL season with an indeterminate timeline to reach the status of No. 1 in the NHL. This uncertainty is likely behind the alleged trade request.

Ultimately, I foresee the Predators trading Askarov, probably before training camp concludes. They must hope it doesn’t mirror the New York Islanders’ trade of Roberto Luongo but should anticipate receiving high value in return. There should be abundant interest, ranging from Western Conference teams like the Calgary Flames, Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Utah Hockey Club, and Vegas Golden Knights, to Eastern Conference teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and Columbus Blue Jackets.

What’s taking so darn long on the Sidney Crosby extension? — @TopesWriter

The Pittsburgh Penguins and Crosby are racing against time to prevent an issue they would rather not face. What’s the delay? It’s unclear. Crosby is committed to playing for the Penguins alone. The Penguins, on the other hand, are keen to avoid upsetting Crosby and certainly do not wish to lose him. They have no justification for being combative with Crosby, who has never shown any signs of wanting to play hardball during his 19 seasons in Pittsburgh. My guess is that the Penguins will start their training camp by announcing Crosby’s new contract. This would be a great way to kick off their training program, bringing positive vibes and media attention, which they desperately need. However, if Crosby arrives at the camp without a new contract, the countdown will pause and it will become an issue.

Trevor Zegras. Trade chatter EVERYWHERE. No substantial evidence of anything actually coming together. What are you hearing? — @JonROTTKOA

There isn’t a lot to report. The Ducks may be considering a trade involving Zegras, possibly even before the season starts, but this is only conjecture at present. Ducks’ General Manager Pat Verbeek is likely operating behind the scenes to measure market interest in Zegras. The 23-year-old center still has two years left on his contract before he is once again eligible to be a restricted free agent.

However, determining Zegras’ market value accurately is tricky, especially after the last season. He missed the training camp as he didn’t sign until October 2nd. His performance was hindered by injuries, one of which was a broken ankle he got on January 9th that sidelined him for 31 games. He managed to score 15 points (with six goals and nine assists) in 31 games. In the 2022-23 season, Zegras scored 65 points (23 goals, 42 assists) in 81 games and 61 points (23 goals, 38 assists) in 75 games during the 2021-22 season.

Currently, his value is not at its peak and it’s unclear what his true standing is in the NHL. He might become the point-per-game, dynamic, playmaking center the Ducks anticipate. He might be a player who scores 60 points. Or, most concerning, he might be susceptible to injuries.

The Ducks find themselves in a difficult position, but regardless of whether Zegras stays with Anaheim or moves elsewhere, this season is crucial for him to demonstrate that there’s more to his NHL performance than just the apparent brilliance we’ve seen so far.

If you had to name eight teams most likely to be the 2025 Stanley Cup champion, which eight teams would that be? No order necessary. I’d say: Edmonton, Florida, Rangers, Dallas, Winnipeg, New Jersey, Colorado, Toronto. I have Nashville, Tampa Bay, Boston, Vegas missing the cut. — @Yamothasmit

1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Florida Panthers
3. New York Rangers
4. Boston Bruins
5. Dallas Stars
6. Nashville Predators
7. Colorado Avalanche 
8. New Jersey Devils