Week 5 NFL picks: Saints set to hand Chiefs first loss of 2024 season?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Sunday night’s game and their picks for Monday night’s Saints-Chiefs matchup below.

NOTES:

1. Teams on BYE: Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Titans
2. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Oct. 3 unless otherwise noted below.
3. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
4. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, OCT. 7

Why Ali picked the Saints: The Chiefs enter the week undefeated and atop the AFC, but little about their perfect start has been, well, perfect. They’ve won four games by just 20 total points — a margin the Saints eclipsed in each of their first two games — lost multiple star playmakers to injury and seen Patrick Mahomes get out to the worst start of his career. The two-time MVP, whose productivity and efficiency after becoming Kansas City’s QB1 fast-tracked him toward becoming the NFL’s QB1, has developed a nasty turnover habit in recent seasons. His 51 total giveaways since the start of the 2021 campaign, including at least one in each game this year, ranks third-most among quarterbacks. Against a New Orleans team that thrives on turning takeaways into points (fifth-most in 2024), Mahomes will have less room for error than he did over his first four games. The three-time champ, of course, is more than good enough to overcome his mistakes — and it’s not like his counterpart this week, Derek Carr, isn’t prone to mental lapses himself. (He’s actually fourth in giveaways behind Mahomes since 2021 … with 38 fewer touchdowns.) But at some point this season, the Chiefs are going to lose. And at some point, Mahomes is going to come up short in a one-score game. And at some point, Dennis Allen is going to be on the right side of a nail-biter on the road. Monday Night Football seems like a fine time for all three.

SUNDAY’S GAMES

Why Ali picked the Vikings: I’ve (foolishly) picked against the Vikings each week so far — not out of malice or mistrust, but because of the gauntlet they faced out of the gate. Surely one of the expected playoff favorites on Minnesota’s schedule would get the better of Kevin O’Connell’s group during the opening stretch. Nope. The Vikings have trailed for a grand total of 3 minutes and 26 seconds through four games — 38 minutes less than the next-closest team — beating their opponents by an average of more than two touchdowns.

So here we are … another Sunday, another contender on the Vikings’ calendar. The Jets are certainly capable of disrupting Minnesota’s good vibes, but that’ll depend on which Aaron Rodgers we see in London — the guy who was nearly flawless against New England in Week 3 or the one who was inaccurate, visibly flustered, under constant duress and unable to reach the end zone at home versus Denver in Week 4? My guess is something closer to the latter. We saw how poorly the Jets handled the Broncos’ blitz-heavy approach last weekend, and the Vikings, who lead the league in sacks, rank second (behind Denver) in blitz rate this season. The Broncos’ five-sack beatdown of Rodgers was so severe, the 40-year-old passer has been dealing with swelling in his knee and questions about his relationship with his head coach.

If I’m going to be wrong on Minnesota again, I’d rather it be because I sided with Brian Flores’ opportunistic, attacking defense and not a Jets offense still trying to find its footing.

Why Gennaro picked the Bears: So, what ever came of that trade these two teams executed 19 months ago? Anyone remember that? Oh, that’s right …

CAROLINA RECEIVED:

• 2023 first-round pick (No. 1 overall): QB Bryce Young

CHICAGO RECEIVED:

• WR D.J. Moore
• 2023 first-round pick (No. 9 overall): Traded down one spot, selecting OT Darnell Wright at No. 10 while also acquiring Philadelphia’s fourth-round pick in 2024, which was ultimately used to take P Tory Taylor at No. 122.
• 2023 second-round pick (No. 61 overall): Traded up five spots, selecting CB Tyrique Stevenson at No. 56.
• 2024 first-round pick (No. 1 overall): QB Caleb Williams
• 2025 second-round pick: TBD

With Young now on the bench and all five of those Bears in the starting lineup, you have to imagine embittered Panthers fans would absolutely cherish a win in Chicago. But given the rapidly deteriorating state of the NFL’s worst scoring defense, I don’t see Carolina gaining retribution on Sunday. Worse yet, I envision Caleb enjoying his best NFL outing to date.

Why Dan picked the Ravens: Joe Burrow knows the deal. On Wednesday, he said “I’m gonna have to play damn-near perfect” against the Ravens. Here’s the thing: He could manifest that almost-flawless game, and it still might not be enough for Cincinnati to avoid falling to 1-4 for the first time in the Burrow era. The gap between Baltimore’s offense and the Bengals’ defense is that big, especially in the ground game. Only one team has allowed more rushing yards over expectation than Lou Anarumo’s crew. Just two teams have allowed more rushing yards after contact. That seems likely to spell disaster when you are trying to match up with a rushing attack that has dominated the league since Lamar Jackson became the QB1. Cincinnati has seen this movie before, and it’s been a tearjerker for the Queen City almost every time — Jackson is 8-1 as a starter against the Bengals and has averaged 69.6 rush yards per outing in his 10 total games played against them. That happens to be the most by any QB versus any team all-time (minimum 10 games). No, I don’t see the script getting flipped this time.

Why Brooke picked the Texans: This is my matchup of the week in terms of quarterback play. Allen is the early MVP front-runner — having yet to throw an interception this season — and is looking to rebound from a Week 4 dud. It won’t be easy against DeMeco Ryans’ defense, which has allowed a league-low 57.3 completion percentage to opposing QBs and just 161 pass yards per game (fourth in the NFL). Allen’s history suggests he’ll be fine: He is 9-1 against top-five pass defenses since 2020, with 260.1 pass yards per game, 27 pass TDs, five INTs and a 106.1 passer rating in those games. Allen has found success this season by spreading the ball around after Buffalo parted with his No. 1 receiver from last season, Stefon Diggs, who is now one of the apples of C.J. Stroud‘s eye in Houston. Like Allen, the second-year QB is lighting it up through the air in 2024, finding Nico Collins and Diggs on the regular, but faces a stout defensive outfit. How will the absence of Von Miller, who has three sacks in four games but now must serve a four-game suspension, impact Buffalo’s pass defense, which has allowed just 86 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers (fewest in the NFL) this season?

Houston also benefits from Joe Mixon’s likely return after the running back missed the last two games. With Mixon in Weeks 1 and 2, the Texans averaged 144 rush yards and 4.6 yards per carry. Without him in Weeks 3 and 4, they averaged 69.5 rush yards and 3.5 yards per attempt. With Buffalo allowing the third-most rush yards (156.5) and most yards per carry (5.7), Houston would be wise to lean on the veteran running back.

UPDATE: Joe Mixon is no longer expected to play on Sunday, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Friday morning. With the veteran back sidelined, Houston will once again rely on Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale to lead the run game.

Why Tom picked the Jaguars: I didn’t really want to. The Colts are more fun right now, even (or especially?) when Joe Flacco is under center, and they seem like a much sturdier outfit, coming off an impressive win over Pittsburgh. If I knew Jonathan Taylor would be playing at full strength, I probably would’ve stuck with Indy. But Jacksonville has to win a game at some point, right? This week — with Taylor’s health in question following an ankle injury in Week 4 — feels like a good time to do it, in just the second home contest of the season thus far, with a two-week stay in London to follow. The defense, which ranks 30th overall and 31st against the pass, is what you would call a concern, in light of both the season-high yards allowed to Houston (334) and what the Colts accomplished against the Steelers. But one positive number in the Jags’ defensive rankings — they rank 10th in rushing yards allowed — lines up well to counter an Indianapolis strength, especially if Taylor is not driving the ground game. Jacksonville did nearly beat Houston. Evan Engram, Trevor Lawrence‘s favorite target last season, was back at practice after missing three games with a hamstring injury. And I have to think Lawrence will do everything he can to avoid becoming the second QB picked No. 1 overall to start 0-5 in two different seasons. (Eli Manning, who did it in 2013 and ’17, is the other.)

UPDATE: On Friday, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor was ruled out, while QB Anthony Richardson was listed as questionable. On Saturday, Richardson was downgraded to doubtful. Jags head coach Doug Pederson said Evan Engram, who’s listed as questionable, will be a game-time decision.

Why Brooke picked the Patriots: What to do with a pair of teams on three-game skids and with floundering offenses … The Dolphins looked rough Monday night with Tyler Huntley unable to get anything going offensively. They netted just 184 total yards, and Miami is again starting Huntley this week with Tua Tagovailoa and Skylar Thompson injured. Mike McDaniel has got to find a way to help his QB get the ball into the hands of his plethora of playmakers. Scoring 15 total points over the last two games feels unacceptable for a group with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane, no matter who is under center. The good news for the Dolphins is they only have to outscore one of the league’s worst offenses (31st in scoring and last in total yards). In New England, Jacoby Brissett has received zero help from his O-line, which just took another hit with center David Andrews lost for the season, and Rhamondre Stevenson‘s fumbling issues have felt catastrophic as the run game has been the Pats’ best option to move the ball. So even though both defenses are allowing more than 20 points per game, this contest feels like another field goal-infested affair. Advantage: home team?

Why Dan picked the Commanders: The football gods are not smiling on the injury-plagued Browns. They are the only team that has yet to score at least 20 points in a game this season. Five starters did not practice on Wednesday due to injury, including three from the offensive line, and that doesn’t include starting guard Wyatt Teller, who is out for at least the next three games while on injured reserve. Meanwhile, the sun shines brightly on the Commanders. They have dropped 80 points in the last two weeks with Jayden Daniels scoring nearly one touchdown for every incomplete pass thrown over that span. Business is indeed booming, and Jim Schwartz’s defense has not been as good as it was last season. After playing the likes of the Raiders and Giants in recent weeks, this will be a different challenge altogether. Even if Cleveland’s D slows down Washington a tick — and that’s a big if — the Browns don’t have the juice on offense to beat many teams right now.

Why Ali picked the Broncos: Denver’s defense has been exceptional through the first month of the season, ranking top three in yards per play (1st), pass yards per attempt (2nd), sacks per attempt (1st), third-down conversion percentage (3rd) and points per game (3rd). But perhaps the best means of capturing the unit’s early dominance in 2024 came last Sunday — courtesy of the Broncos’ offense — when Bo Nix became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win a game despite averaging less than 2.5 yards per throw on at least 25 attempts. (Gotta love QB wins as a stat!) That historic performance also highlights the rub with this Broncos team: Sean Payton’s offense has been a near inversion of Vance Joseph’s defense, ranking bottom five in yards per play (29th), pass yards per attempt (30th), third-down conversion percentage (31st) and points per game (28th).

Where the offense has been exceptional, though, is in keeping Nix upright, boasting the lowest sack percentage in the league (2.8%). Denver will need to be every bit as proficient protecting its quarterback this weekend, particularly if Maxx Crosby returns to Las Vegas’ lineup. But if the Broncos’ rookie passer can continue to do for the football what his O-line has done for him, the defense should be able to contain a Raiders attack that has struggled to establish an identity, even before WR1 Davante Adams’ trade request.

Why Gennaro picked the 49ers: Following San Francisco’s 30-13 beatdown of New England last Sunday, Kyle Shanahan was quite complimentary of his quarterback. Asked if he feels there are any plays he can’t call for Brock Purdy, the revered offensive guru didn’t hold back: “No, I think Brock, since his first game playing here, there hasn’t been that type of play. I mean, he’s very good in the dropback game, play-action game, he’s good on the bootlegs and stuff. You know, we don’t call too many, like, zone read and things with him — I think he’d be capable of it, but we’re not trying to make a living off that. But, you know, Brock has been one of the most consistent players in the league since the first game he’s played.”

You don’t have to tell that to this week’s opponent, as Purdy has consistently cooked the Cardinals. In three career starts against Arizona, the San Francisco signal-caller has spearheaded three blowout wins, racking up some sparkling statistics in the process: 77.3 percent completions, 10.7 yards per attempt, 8:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 150.4 passer rating. And as the good folks over at Next Gen Stats will tell you, the 2024 Cards are extremely accommodating to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the highest percentage of open targets while applying the second-lowest amount of pressure.

Why Dan picked the Packers: The light switched back on for Jordan Love during the fourth quarter last week in his return from injury, and I expect that to carry over against a much less formidable defense. The Rams allow the most yards per pass attempt (9.1) in the league, which bodes well for a Packers offense that is expected to be without Christian Watson, but don’t be surprised if Matt LaFleur sees — and exploits — a potentially bigger advantage on the ground. Sean McVay’s team ranks dead last in run defense and just breathed new life into a Bears run game that had barely been registering a pulse. The Ravens are the only team that has run for more yards than Green Bay this season. Matthew Stafford is doing his best to keep his squad afloat while the offensive line and receiving corps lick their wounds, but McVay’s fifth attempt to beat his former pupil, LaFleur, doesn’t look like it will go any better for the Rams than it did on the first four tries, all L.A. losses.

UPDATE: The Packers announced Saturday that WR Romeo Doubs has been suspended for Sunday’s game due to conduct detrimental to the team.

Why Brooke picked the Seahawks: The Giants better hope star rookie receiver Malik Nabers (concussion) is available Sunday. Because even with Nabers, the league leader in targets and receptions, New York is averaging just 15 points per game (tied for third-fewest in the NFL). This feels like a steep climb against a Seahawks team playing complementary football early in the season. Sure, the Detroit game got a little out of hand (Seattle gave up a 40-burger), but not every QB is going to be absolutely perfect, and the Giants are hardly the Lions right now. Seattle’s offense was cooking in prime time Monday night, with Geno Smith connecting with all of his star playmakers and then some — completing at least one pass to 10 different guys — and Kenneth Walker III looking explosive in his return from injury. Simply put, Seattle has far more firepower than the Giants. Mix in the “12s” and this one could get pretty lopsided.

UPDATE: Giants coach Brian Daboll announced Friday that Malik Nabers is still in the concussion protocol and will miss Sunday’s game in Seattle.

Why Tom picked the Steelers: Here’s a statement I probably wouldn’t have made a month ago: I don’t think the Cowboys match up with the Steelers nearly as well as the Colts do. Indianapolis dispatched with Pittsburgh last week by leaning on a strong ground game and a passing attack with multiple receiving threats. The Colts’ defense also stood up well enough against the run while securing a healthy pressure rate (35.7 percent). How much of that formula can Dallas hope to replicate? The ‘Boys rank 32nd in rushing yards. CeeDee Lamb has topped 60 receiving yards in each game so far, but only two other Dallas pass catchers (Jalen Tolbert in Week 2 and Jake Ferguson in Week 3) have managed to hit that benchmark in any contest. Even after taking a positive defensive step against the Giants, the Cowboys rank 27th in rushing yards allowed. And is there any way their 20th-ranked pass defense will perform better without Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence? To have a chance, Dallas will have to get lucky and break off some big plays; Pittsburgh just has to grind. I dare anyone to pick against Mike Tomlin’s squad to do that.

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Tom picked the Buccaneers: I should have put more faith in Baker Mayfield last Sunday. Now he’s facing a team I haven’t really believed in, pick-wise, for most of the season. There’s a chance I’ll regret going against the Falcons in Atlanta on a short week. Then again, how much of an advantage is it, really, for them to play on a field where they’ve been outscored by their opponents by 11 combined points? The Falcons haven’t given up tons of yardage through the air (they rank 13th in passing yards allowed per game), but the defense also hasn’t been able to bother opposing QBs very much, as Gennaro noted last week. Even after the win over New Orleans, Atlanta’s pressure rate remains the lowest in the NFL (22.4 percent), per Next Gen Stats. Tampa’s, meanwhile, is a solid 34.5 percent (12th in the league), which is not great news for Kirk Cousins, who has compiled a 0:4 TD-to-INT ratio with a passer rating of 41.9 when pressured. It would be better if right tackle Luke Goedeke weren’t going to miss this one due to a concussion, but ultimately, I don’t want to head into the weekend knowing I was on the wrong side of another Mayfield gem, so I’m rolling with Tampa.

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