Week 4 NFL picks: Dynamic Dolphins poised to beat Bills in Buffalo? Eagles, 49ers stay undefeated

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 4 picks below.

The lines provided by Caesars Sportsbook are current as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 28 unless otherwise noted below.

• * — Pick flipped after publishing.
• ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

SUNDAY, OCT. 1

Why Dan is taking the Jaguars: As bad as the Jaguars’ offense has looked for the last two weeks, I still trust Trevor Lawrence to make more plays than Desmond Ridder, who now has four touchdown passes on 203 career throws. Now, Atlanta could easily snatch its third victory if the Jags continue to play sloppy ball. They have been pretty good against the run, though, and if the Falcons’ ground game isn’t clicking, well, we saw how that scenario played out last week. I expect Jacksonville’s London residency to get off to a smashing start.

Why Ali is taking the Dolphins: Miami has to be a bit peeved to find itself 2.5-point dogs after its mercy-rule-worthy demolition of Denver last Sunday. Seventy points! That’s more than 18 teams have totaled through three games. But in the Bills, the Fins face perhaps the only AFC squad outside of Kansas City capable of slowing them down — or, at the very least, keeping pace. Thanks to a deep and highly productive D-line, Buffalo boasts the highest QB pressure percentage (50.2%) in the league despite blitzing at the second-lowest rate (15.7%), per Next Gen Stats. The success up front has allowed Sean McDermott to play nickel more than any team this year by far (98.6% of snaps), which, in turn, has helped Buffalo generate a league-leading seven picks. The defense will do its damnedest to give Josh Allen & Co. an opportunity to match blows with Miami’s early MVP candidates, but the Dolphins’ overall team speed (including Tua’s TTT) eventually exhausts and overwhelms Buffalo.

Fun Fact: The Dolphins and Bills have combined for 31 plays this year in which a player exceeded 18 mph, per NGS. Miami accounts for 27 of them.

Why Gennaro is taking the Vikings: Minnesota set an NFL record by going 11-0 in one-score games during the 2022 regular season. Then the Vikings promptly lost their playoff opener by a touchdown, proving regression has a dark sense of humor. And three weeks into the 2023 campaign, Minnesota has three one-score losses, leaving Kirk Cousins and friends to wonder what they did to become the butt of such a merciless joke. Fortunately, they draw one of the league’s other three winless teams in Week 4. With injuries and ineptitude diminishing these two teams’ defenses, give me the offense with the better quarterback, better weaponry and better offensive line. Oh, and just to be safe, let’s avoid a one-score margin.

Why Tom is taking the Broncos: In Week 3, the Broncos were shellacked by a vastly superior opponent. In Week 2, they were upended by a plucky upstart. Neither descriptor fits Chicago right now. Yes, Denver is reeling, presenting the perfect opportunity, in theory, for the Bears to pull themselves together at home. But I’ll have to see it to believe it. Russell Wilson and Co. have at least recorded a handful of solid possessions each game, even last week. The Bears have tallied multiple first downs on just 12 drives all season.

Why Dan is taking the Ravens: A lot of signs are pointing to a Browns win here. They’re at home, no one can score on their defense and injuries have clearly taken a toll on the Ravens. I’m just not ready to trust Cleveland yet, at least not in a game I expect to be close. Baltimore is getting better news on the injury front this week, and maybe last week’s overtime loss to the Gardner Minshew-led Colts was the wake-up call the team needed to tighten things up a bit.

(EDITOR’S UPDATE: Deshaun Watson (right shoulder) will not play against the Ravens, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning, per a source. Rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson will make his first career NFL start with Watson sidelined.)

Why Ali is taking the Steelers: The Texans played inspired football last week, routing the Jags on the road behind a breakout showing from their new face of the franchise. C.J. Stroud‘s steady improvement should have Houston fans thrilled for what’s to come. Except for maybe this weekend. While Stroud is 1-1 against Super Bowl-winning head coaches in his young career, Mike Tomlin is a masterful 24-4 against rookie QBs (including the playoffs) in his 17 seasons in charge. Moreover, Pittsburgh has outscored its opponents by an average of 8.5 points in those 28 games. While Stroud performed admirably against an aspiring Jags pass rush, the Steelers unit arriving on Sunday will be arguably the toughest he’ll encounter all year. Plenty of question marks still swirl around Pittsburgh’s offense, but Tomlin’s answers on defense decide this game.

Why Brooke is taking the Colts: The big story here is Anthony Richardson. He’s back at practice after missing last week’s game, a good sign for the possibility of him starting Sunday. The Colts’ rushing attack could be scary with the rookie back in the fold and Zack Moss averaging 105 yards per game over the last two weeks. This is a team trending up after a big road win in overtime — even if Gardner Minshew is the starter once again — while the Rams can’t seem to get out of their own way. Still, Los Angeles has the goods to score major points if Matthew Stafford is protected and takes care of the football. I can see this tilt going either way, with a key factor being how much opposing DTs Aaron Donald and DeForest Buckner impact the game. Ultimately, I think the home team prevails, whether Richardson plays or not.

Why Tom is taking the Saints: I suspect the Saints’ defensive rankings (ninth in yards, sixth in points) might be slightly inflated by the less-than-imposing slate of opponents they’ve faced thus far, and I’m not sure they’ll give Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans as much trouble as the Eagles just did. I do think New Orleans will ultimately hold it down at home, while Jameis Winston and the Saints’ offense should — given a week to prepare and the return of Alvin Kamara from suspension — look better than it did after Derek Carr went down in Week 3.

(EDITOR’S UPDATE: Carr (right shoulder) will play Sunday versus the Buccaneers, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning, per a source.)

Why Brooke is taking the Eagles: Despite Jalen Hurts and the offense playing far from their best, Philadelphia has been able to jump out to a 3-0 start by dominating the trenches. In turn, the Eagles’ second-ranked run game — led by offseason trade acquisition D’Andre Swift — has been an absolute beast for defenses to contain. None of this is great news for the Commanders, who just gave up 168 yards on the ground to the Bills, while simultaneously allowing Sam Howell to get sacked nine(!) times. Is is notable that Washington is the only team to beat Hurts in the QB’s last 21 regular-season starts. But the difference will come down to who wins up front. In Philly’s big uglies I trust.

Why Ali is taking the Bengals: Joe Burrow. Honestly. How else do you pick between these two struggling outfits:

• Total yards: Bengals 30th; Titans 31st
• PPG: Bengals 28th; Titans T-29th
• First downs per game: T-29th
• Avg. time of possession: Bengals: 20th; Titans 19th

They’re even allowing the exact same number of points per game (22.3)! So in this battle of bottom-of-the-barrel offenses and overtaxed defenses, I’ll take the team with the superstar QB (even if he’s not 100%) and ultra-talented receiving corps. … They have to get right at some point.

Why Tom is taking the Chargers: The potential for sloppy chaos is at an uncomfortable level here. But rather than trying to predict which side will get in its own way, I’m keeping it simple and sticking with the more talented QB at home. If Jimmy Garoppolo clears the concussion protocol in time to face the Chargers’ 32nd-ranked pass defense, the Raiders’ offense could look as good as it has all year. Regardless of Garoppolo’s status, though, I’ll bank on the Justin Herbert–Keenan Allen connection being the deciding factor.

(EDITOR’S UPDATE: The Raiders are expected to start rookie QB Aidan O’Connell in place of Garoppolo (concussion) against the Chargers, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Sunday morning.)

Why Dan is taking the Cowboys: The Cowboys are not going to solve their red-zone issues in one week, but I don’t think that will be required to beat a Patriots team that has yet to break 20 points in a game this season. Arizona exposed Dallas’ vulnerabilities on both sides of the ball last week. I just don’t see the explosiveness in New England’s offense to fully exploit soft spots on Dallas’ D. Look for Dan Quinn’s unit to bounce back, putting relentless pressure on Mac Jones.

Why Gennaro is taking the 49ers: The 2023 49ers score exactly 30 points each game. No more. No less. With that side of the prediction predetermined, the mission here is simple: Forecast the opposition’s final tally. After opening the season with a 16-point effort, Arizona appeared to find a number of its own, posting 28s in each of the past two weeks. So … 30-28?? Nope. I just can’t take this bit that far. While these plucky Cardinals just upset a potential juggernaut at home, they’re now facing a bona fide juggernaut on the road.

Why Dan is taking the Chiefs: Maybe Zach Wilson will flip the switch one day, but it’s not going to be against Kansas City this week. This is not the matchup for him. The Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and one of the best defenses in the NFL, which seems unfair to the rest of the league. Steve Spagnuolo’s unit ranks fourth in scoring defense and has a chance to hold a team to 10 points or fewer for the third week in a row. The Jets’ D can keep Mahomes from going off, but it won’t be enough for Gang Green to win.

MONDAY, OCT. 2

Why Gennaro is taking the Seahawks: Despite everything he accomplished in a revelatory 2022 campaign, Geno Smith still faces plenty of skepticism. So when the freshly PAID signal-caller laid an egg in Seattle’s wholly uninspiring Week 1 home loss to the Rams, you could almost hear the frantic scribbling of people writing him off. Once again, though, Geno didn’t write back. In a pair of wins over the last two weeks, the 32-year-old has looked more like his old/new self, helping the ‘Hawks post 37 points each time out. How will Smith and Co. fare in Monday’s visit to MetLife Stadium? Well, Giants DC Wink Martindale typically blitzes his face off. But in 2023, Geno’s been money against the blitz, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with a 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio and 127.8 passer rating, per Next Gen Stats. Will Wink blink?

THURSDAY’S GAME

Why Brooke is taking the Lions: The last time these teams met at Lambeau in prime time, the Lions knocked Green Bay out of the playoff picture. You better believe that’ll be top of mind for the Cheeseheads. Revenge won’t come easy, though, as Detroit looks even better now — most notably on defense, with game wrecker Aidan Hutchinson and rookie Brian Branch playing at a high level. The Packers have a lot of confidence in Jordan Love, and they should: He’s played well for the most part. But how he handles this kind of spotlight is yet to be seen. Another concern is how many Green Bay studs (Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Jaire Alexander and De’Vondre Campbell) have been dealing with injuries, though Rashan Gary has come back with a vengeance. It’s always tough to pick against the Packers at home, but with health concerns and the unknown surrounding Love in prime time, I’m taking the Lions to win and take the lead in the NFC North.

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