Week 1 NFL picks: Will Jets score upset at 49ers on Monday night?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Sunday night’s game and their picks for Jets-49ers below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Sept. 5 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, SEPT. 9

Why Tom picked the 49ers: If this game were being played in New Jersey, I might have been able to talk myself into the Jets, who have enough talent to potentially keep up in this contest, especially after bolstering the offensive line with veterans Tyron Smith, John Simpson and Morgan Moses, as well as rookie Olu Fashanu. I don’t quite have the guts to back Aaron Rodgers and Co. on the road, though. San Francisco remains one of the best teams in the league, the kind of accomplished veteran squad that should be able to quickly put a summer of uncertainty in the rearview mirror. (If anyone can roll right into action less than a week after ending a contract standoff, it’s Trent Williams.) Gang Green is a theoretical contender; the 49ers have actually become a semi-regular presence in the Super Bowl. I’ll take the established powerhouse at home.

ALREADY COMPLETED

Why Gennaro picked the Chiefs: The Ravens enter this game with a major question on each side of the ball:

• What should we expect from an offensive line that lost three starters? LG John Simpson, RG Kevin Zeitler and RT Morgan Moses are out. Who’s in? A second-year pro who missed his entire rookie season due to injury (Andrew Vorhees), a tackle-to-guard conversion with one NFL start (Daniel Faalele) and a top-notch utility man who’s averaged seven starts per year over his half-decade in the league (Patrick Mekari).
• What should we expect from a defensive coaching staff that lost three rising stars? Baltimore’s defensive scheme is all the rage these days. The downside of that? The Ravens suffered a massive brain drain during the offseason, losing Mike Macdonald (now Seahawks head coach), Anthony Weaver (Dolphins defensive coordinator) and Dennard Wilson (Titans defensive coordinator). Consequently, all eyes are on Zachary Orr, a former Ravens linebacker who shot up the coaching ranks to suddenly find himself running Baltimore’s D at age 32.

On the opposing sideline, the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs unfathomably enter this game with something of a chip on their shoulder because they sputtered through the 2023 regular season, starting with a loss in last year’s Kickoff Game.

Why Dan picked the Packers: If these teams pick up where they left off last season, Green Bay will cruise in Brazil. I’m presuming the Eagles left full-on collapse mode behind in January, though, so this should be an entertaining matchup on the international stage. I don’t have a strong feeling on who has the edge here. There is no doubt Philadelphia has the talent to beat a Packers team that surged down the stretch in 2023, but in Week 1, I’m picking Jordan Love and Co. because of the continuity they enjoy, particularly on offense. Yes, Matt LaFleur has new players on his team like every other squad does at the start of the season, but the Eagles are replacing the heartbeat of their franchise, Jason Kelce, and have new coordinators on both sides of the ball, with Jalen Hurts learning an offense that was “95 percent new” to him. I’m not sure it’s all going to click right off the bat. If it does, the Packers (and the rest of the league) will be in trouble.

Why Ali picked the Steelers: The Falcons have had arguably the splashiest offseason additions of any team, from the franchise QB they signed in free agency to the franchise QB they drafted eighth overall to the high-profile veteran defenders they’ve scooped up since. On paper, this team has so much going for it … except for its Week 1 opponent. Facing the man with the third-most wins in this millennium is not how you want to kick off a feel-good campaign. Mike Tomlin just coached the likes of Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitchell Trubisky — all currently QB2s scattered across the league — to 10 wins and a playoff appearance. Look past the questions (and doubts) about whether Russell Wilson can recapture his Pro Bowl form, and it’s undeniable the 35-year-old is an upgrade over any of Pittsburgh’s 2023 passers. With marquee names on defense and an ascending offensive line (though, Isaac Seumalo‘s absence on Sunday will be felt up front), Russ can cook on low-to-medium heat — the ideal temp for the future Hall of Famer. This one has the makings of a tight, gritty game, with both reimagined offenses working through early kinks. But who better than Arthur Smith to help land Atlanta its first loss of 2024?

UPDATE: Russell Wilson (calf) is officially inactive for the season opener. Although Mr. Unlimited will be limited to the sideline on Sunday, I have as much confidence (if not more) in Justin Fields‘ ability to guide Pittsburgh to a 1-0 start.

Why Ali picked the Bills: Other than maybe Chicago’s, no offense intrigues me more than the one in the desert. We finally get to see Kyler Murray, even further removed from his 2022 ACL injury, take Maserati Marv out for a spin. The fourth overall pick’s presence in the starting 11 should lead to more favorable matchups for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, and wider running lanes for James Conner. Tough early task for a Buffalo team with two new starters at safety and without do-it-all defender Matt Milano. While Buffalo’s front is capable of carrying some of the load in the star linebacker’s absence — and will likely get the better of Arizona’s O-line over the course of the afternoon — Murray’s escapability should put enough stress on Sean McDermott’s retooled secondary to create chunk-play opportunities. I can’t quite commit to the Cardinals in this one, though. For as high as I am on the team’s offensive potential, I’m equally as concerned about its defense, which has several new pieces but few immediate difference-makers. Sure, the Bills’ offense also looks vastly different than it did a year ago. But Josh Allen is still QB1, and he’s more than good enough — especially at home — to compensate for the team’s potential shortcomings and growing pains.

Why Gennaro picked the Bears: At this point, what more is there to say about Caleb Williams? The 22-year-old is a beacon of hope — and a builder of hype — in Chicago. Meanwhile, the other young quarterback in this game, Tennessee’s Will Levis, is more of a curiosity — not just because he boasts a bodybuilder’s physique and hawks mayonnaise cologne. After sliding into the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft, Levis took the Titans’ quarterbacking reins midway through last season. With a devil-may-care play style that revolves around his cannon arm — and little regard for protecting the rest of his body — Levis vacillated between thrills and spills as a rookie, ultimately spawning widespread appraisals of his performance. That’s why I’m so fascinated to see how he fares in this season opener. Not only does Levis encounter one of the most ballyhooed quarterback prospects in recent memory, but he directly faces off against a Bears secondary that’s deep and talented. It’s an immediate litmus test — and as you can see by the prediction above, I’m skeptical Levis will earn a passing grade. It’s going to take some time for this wild man to fit into new head coach Brian Callahan’s precision, timing-based offense.

Why Tom picked the Bengals: Were Cincinnati facing almost any other opponent, I’d be thinking more about the impact of Ja’Marr Chase‘s ongoing contract drama and stressing slightly about how Joe Burrow‘s surgically repaired wrist will respond to serious game action. Week 1 shockers happen, of course, but even so, the Patriots present a fairly friendly-seeming assignment, with the Bengals’ overall talent advantage providing some insurance against a slow start. I don’t want to dismiss Jerod Mayo’s crew out of hand; it just feels like everything would have to go right for New England to have a real chance in this one. That’s a lot to ask for from a rebuilding team in its first game under a rookie head coach.

UPDATE: Chase is officially active for Sunday’s game against the Patriots. The receiver indicated Friday he would be willing to play against New England even without a new contract but had described himself as a “game-time decision.”

Why Brooke picked the Texans: Houston, the clear favorite to win the division, should pick up right where it left off last season, playing sound football in all three phases. It helps that C.J. Stroud got more offensive weapons (Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon) and that he faces a Colts defense that has ranked in the bottom five in scoring in each of the last two seasons under Gus Bradley’s watch. That said, I am eager to see what Indy’s offense looks like with a healthy Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor, two absolute studs capable of taking over games. But this contest likely comes down to whether the Colts D can stall Stroud and Co. My guess? Not yet — but maybe in the Week 8 rematch.

Why Dan picked the Dolphins: I’m going against my natural inclination, picking against the team I like better in the trenches. It feels like I have no choice because of the towering advantage the Dolphins hold at receiver versus what looks like a highly vulnerable Jacksonville secondary. Tyson Campbell is a good player, but what can the Jaguars hang their hat on at cornerback outside of him? Maybe journeyman Ronald Darby steps up with the game of his life and Packers castoff Darnell Savage benefits from the change of scenery, but if not, they should get used to seeing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running past them. Can new DC Ryan Nielsen mix up his fronts to unleash Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker against a Miami offensive line with its own share of questions? No quarterback got rid of the ball faster than Tua Tagovailoa last season (2.36 seconds time to throw, per Next Gen Stats). That will be a strong counter to whatever Nielsen is able to scheme up with his pass rush. I expect a lot of points to be scored in the type of game that plays into Mike McDaniel’s hands.

Why Gennaro picked the Panthers: This might not be a game everyone has circled on the Week 1 slate, but can I interest you in two new offenses?? After a disastrous debut season from No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, Carolina hired new head coach Dave Canales, a young, energetic quarterback whisperer with a more wide-open scheme. And that’s not the only thing that’s new with this attack. The Panthers shelled out $153 million on a pair of guards in free agency (Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis), traded for a proven separator in the passing game (Diontae Johnson) and spent their first two draft picks on playmakers (WR Xavier Legette and RB Jonathon Brooks, the latter of whom is still recovering from a torn ACL). As for the Saints, they hired a new offensive coordinator for the first time since George W. Bush was president, with pedigreed youngster Klint Kubiak replacing Sean Payton disciple Pete Carmichael Jr. New Orleans also spent the No. 14 overall pick on tone-setting blocker Taliese Fuaga, the latest attempt to fix an offensive line in disarray. Can you tell I’m a bit more intrigued by one of these offensive makeovers? Hence the upset pick.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: It’s hard to trust Sam Darnold at this point in his career. But it’s harder to trust Daniel Jones in this game. Darnold’s supporting cast — looking at you, Justin Jefferson — is far and away better than Jones’ group, especially with no Saquon Barkley in the backfield. I mean, the Darnold-led Vikings being a road favorite should tell you all you need to know about the state of the Giants, who added talent in the offseason (edge Brian Burns and WR Malik Nabers) but have more roster uncertainty top to bottom. Brian Daboll, who’s taking back play-calling duties, has his work cut out for him.

Why Dan picked the Chargers: I’m placing my trust in Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman’s ability to orchestrate a deathly effective running game. Their portfolio on that front is strong to quite strong. The key to the Chargers winning Harbaugh’s debut is limiting the impact of my top DPOY candidate Maxx Crosby and marquee free-agent signing Christian Wilkins up front. There’s no better way to accomplish that mission than by running the ball right at the fearsome duo and wearing them down over the course of 60 minutes. That would take pressure off Justin Herbert and his aching foot. It will also allow Gardner Minshew fewer opportunities to heave YOLO balls to Davante Adams and Co. Los Angeles has made such a big investment in the offensive line for matchups like this one. The Raiders can see the Gus (and J.K.) Bus coming, but that doesn’t mean they will be able to slow it down.

Why Tom picked the Seahawks: In Mike Macdonald’s two seasons as the Ravens’ defensive coordinator, he faced four rookie QBs, and in those games, his unit allowed just one touchdown pass: to Kenny Pickett, in Week 17 of the 2022 season. In last year’s opener, Macdonald even made future Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud look like, well, someone playing his first professional regular-season football game, holding Stroud to 5.5 yards per throw and a passer rating of 78. Now, that is a small sample size — perhaps too small to damn Bo Nix to certain doom in his Sunday debut. And Macdonald’s Seahawks are not the Ravens. But the head coach still has plenty of defensive talent at his disposal. I expect him to complicate Nix’s life enough that Geno Smith will improve to 2-0 in home openers against QBs making their first start for Denver.

Why Tom picked the Cowboys: I have my doubts about Dallas, but those are mostly narrative-based, stemming from the team’s failure to live up to its playoff potential — and we definitely won’t learn anything new about that in September. We do know that the lineup is anchored by reliable studs on offense (Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb) and defense (Micah Parsons). As for the Browns, my concerns are much more substantive. How will the offensive line handle Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence, especially if career right tackle Jack Conklin is pressed into duty on the left side in Jedrick Wills‘ absence? More importantly, what the heck can we expect from Deshaun Watson, who is as much of an unknown quantity now as he was in Week 1 last year? It’s tough to pick a team with the human equivalent of a mystery box under center, even at home.

Why Ali picked the Buccaneers: These two teams are on opposite ends of the continuity spectrum, and to me, that spells trouble for Washington. While the Commanders needed to make massive changes across the board — including under center, under the headset and throughout their league-worst defense — that kind of franchise turnover typically doesn’t lead to immediate results. Meanwhile, the Bucs — who won five of their last six regular-season games, claimed their third consecutive NFC South title and advanced to the Divisional Round last year — return essentially all of their key contributors. Expect Todd Bowles to attack Jayden Daniels from every angle, but especially the rookie’s blind side, where the Commanders will also debut first-year left tackle Brandon Coleman and free-agent addition Nick Allegretti — two of three new faces (along with C Tyler Biadasz) on Washington’s O-line. Communication within that re-worked unit will be critical out of the gate — Vita Vea waits for nobody.

Why Brooke picked the Lions: Chances are you have at least one player from this game on your fantasy football team(s) because we already know what these two squads are bringing to the table offensively: fireworks. The Lions retained offensive coordinator Ben Johnson — perhaps their biggest (non)move of the offseason — and should be every bit the top-five scoring offense they were a year ago. The same goes for Sean McVay’s group, which should continue to build after breakout campaigns from Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams. The defenses are each outfit’s biggest question, as the Lions overhauled the secondary and the Rams are without future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald for the first time in a decade. The defense that makes the most plays likely wins, and I’ll give that edge to the home team. Detroit is ready to show out.

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