Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations — but they aren’t always right. We’re here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.4
Okada: If you read our piece on bold predictions for the 2024 fantasy season, this should come as no surprise. I’m projecting 18-to-20 fantasy points from Kyler on a weekly basis and will be taking the HIGHER option indefinitely … or until site projections catch up.
The Bills were a tough matchup for quarterbacks last year, and Sean McDermott tends to bring the best out of any personnel, but the loss of Matt Milano will be tough to overcome right out the gate. I expect Marvin Harrison Jr. to make a splash in his NFL debut, while Murray adds 3-to-4 points with his legs — more, if he scampers into the end zone — to finish as a top-six QB on the week and kick off a glorious fantasy season.
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.0
Okada: After three straight relatively disappointing seasons, Kamara is now a low-end RB2 rather than the stud RB1 he was in the Drew Brees era. Still, in PPR leagues, he’s an absolute menace as a receiver. Last year, he snagged 75 catches (second-most among RBs) on 86 targets (tied for second-most among RBs) in just 13 games, scoring 9.8 fantasy points per game as a receiver alone.
As a result, he averaged a surprising 17.9 fantasy points per game — good for third among running backs, behind just Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams. Little to nothing changed in New Orleans through the offseason, and the Saints open up this campaign against the Panthers, who allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position last season. Arrow up for Kamara in Week 1.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.6
Magdziuk: The Texans are hopeless when it comes to defending Taylor. Over six career games against Houston, the back has averaged 135.2 rushing yards per outing, scoring a total of eight touchdowns in the process. Taylor’s currently on a streak of four straight games with 140-plus rushing yards and one-plus rushing TD vs. this division rival, and in those games, he has scored 26.6, 25.5, 24.3 and 28.3 fantasy points.
Last season, the Texans were one of the best run defenses in the league, but not when they faced the Colts, who averaged over 175 rushing yards per game against Houston. The Texans allowed just 86.0 rushing yards per game to all other opponent in 2023.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.3
Okada: It’s tough to predict what we’ll get from Adams over the course of this season. In 2023, he racked up 175 targets (second in the NFL) but scored just 15.6 fantasy points per game with Aidan O’Connell, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer dealing the rock.
Now, Davante has Gardner Minshew at QB, which should actually be an upgrade. Michael Pittman Jr. averaged 14.3 PPG with Minshew at QB last year, and even at 31 years old, Adams is still more elite than Pittman. Adams put up 15.5 and 24.1 fantasy points in two meetings with the Chargers last year; he should enjoy another productive outing with double-digit targets on Sunday.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.6
Magdziuk: Simply put, there is not a Commanders defensive back who will be able to effectively cover Evans for a full 60 minutes. Washington bled fantasy points to wide receivers last season; no team allowed more receiving yards or touchdowns to the position than the Commanders.
Evans is arguably the best touchdown scorer in the NFL, recording 13-plus receiving scores in three of the last four seasons. He and Baker Mayfield connected on seven deep touchdowns (20-plus air yards) in 2023, which ranked second in the NFL, behind only Tua Tagovailoa/Tyreek Hill (eight) — while the Commanders allowed an insane 17 deep passing touchdowns last season, six more than any other team. Evans finding the end zone at least once in this matchup almost seems guaranteed.
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.1
Magdziuk: In a crowded receiver room, Reed is being overlooked coming into his sophomore season. Not only did the 2023 second-rounder lead the Packers in receptions, receiving yards, scrimmage yards and touchdowns in Year 1, but he also hit 15-plus fantasy points in seven of his last eight regular-season games played.
The Eagles spent capital this offseason to try and fix their secondary, but they allowed the most fantasy points to the wide receiver position last year — and they especially struggled against slot wide receivers (Reed’s main role in the Packers’ offense). In what should be a high-scoring matchup, I project Reed to start off the 2024 season with a bang.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 16.2
Magdziuk: With game-breaking burst and speed, Hall has elite fantasy upside in any given week. However, the probability that he will hit 16.2 fantasy points in this matchup isn’t great. Hall has scored fewer than 16 points in 14 of 24 career games (58.3% of games), and fewer than 12 points in nine of 24 games (37.5%).
To make matters worse, he has to face San Francisco’s menacing defense, which allowed the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL last season. No single player recorded 90-plus rushing yards in a regular-season game against the 49ers in 2023 and only four running backs hit 16.2 fantasy points against them.
PROJECTED POINTS: 20.5
Okada: I know — McCaffrey is a veritable factory of 20-point games. Still, I’m exercising caution in Week 1, as he just started practicing on Tuesday for the first time since suffering a calf/Achilles injury in early August. If there’s ever a week for the 49ers to ease his workload, it’s this one.
Additionally, I don’t think the Jets are as soft a matchup as they appear in your fantasy app. They allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs last year, but that’s largely because they faced the third-most carries in the league as a losing team with a terrible offense. Gang Green’s defense is arguably the best in football — and will be much better with Aaron Rodgers keeping opposing offenses off the field more. McCaffrey will still be great … but just-short-of-20-points great.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.5
Magdziuk: Chicago’s offense has an entirely new look entering the 2024 season. Not only will QB Caleb Williams be making his first NFL start on Sunday, but it will also be the first time that Moore will be playing alongside veteran target hog Keenan Allen and explosive rookie WR Rome Odunze. Moore’s elite target share from the 2023 season, when he was playing with the likes of Darnell Mooney and Tyler Scott, is in great jeopardy this year.
Moore’s fantasy success was highly dependent on extreme volume last season: He averaged 25.4 fantasy points per game in his eight outings with nine or more targets, but only 9.3 points per game in the other nine contests.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.5
Okada: Ferguson enjoyed a breakout second season in 2023, averaging 10.4 fantasy points per game to finish as a TE1 in the fantasy world. It’s not difficult for him to hit this 10.5-point mark when he notches a touchdown — he did so in four of the five games in which he scored last year — but he doesn’t often have the catches or yards to make up the difference otherwise.
Those catches and yards could be especially hard to come by against this Browns defense. Last year, Cleveland allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends, surrendering just 3.8 catches and 41.8 yards per game to the position. It’s basically touchdown or bust for Ferguson, and the odds are simply higher that he doesn’t score.
Please enable Javascript to view this content
