Player projections are solid barometers for week-to-week fantasy expectations — but they aren’t always right. We’re here to help you navigate those numbers and make the optimal decisions for your fantasy lineup by breaking down a handful of NFL.com fantasy point projections each week.
As always, check out our NFL Fantasy rankings for more!
HIGHER
PROJECTED POINTS: 17.8
Michelle: If Love could just limit his interceptions, he would be a fantasy monster. The good news is that he should have no issues protecting the ball this Sunday against the Jaguars, who have just one pick on the season. No defense has allowed more passing touchdowns than Jacksonville in 2024 (16), while Love is leading the league with an average of 3.0 passing touchdowns per game. The Jaguars have allowed the opposing starting QB to score at least 20 fantasy points in each of the last five weeks. Love has already scored at least 25 fantasy points in two of his five outings this season, and I expect him to record his third such game this weekend.
PROJECTED POINTS: 14.9
Matt: If you’ve trusted Dak up to this point, you need some reassurance. Outside of a 29.9-point outing against the Ravens in Week 3, Prescott has averaged just 12.1 fantasy points per game — and he absolutely killed you with the 3.22-point effort prior to last week’s bye. Now, after a week of rest for the Cowboys, I think the offense gets back on track — at least a little bit.
The 49ers look like a tough matchup on paper, but they’ve faced very few legitimate QBs this season. Prescott will probably throw a pick, but as long as he gets to around 225 yards and two TDs — which he did in three straight games before the Week 6 dud vs. Detroit — he’ll top this projection and be a QB1 (top 12) in Week 8.
PROJECTED POINTS: 11.8
Michelle: In Wilson’s season debut and first start as a Steeler, he logged three total touchdowns and put up nearly 25 fantasy points, finishing as the fantasy QB3 on the week. Wilson has scored at least 14 fantasy points in each of his last 10 starts, dating back to last season with the Broncos. Meanwhile, every starting quarterback who has faced the Giants this season has scored at least 13 fantasy points, and each QB who’s played Big Blue over the last three weeks has scored at least 19.8 points. Plus, New York’s defense is a friendly matchup for Wilson, who is very successful using play-action and throwing the deep ball. Per Next Gen Stats, the G-Men are allowing the third-highest passer rating off play-action and the highest completion percentage and passer rating on deep passes (20-plus air yds) in 2024.
BONUS: I also like George Pickens eclipsing his projection of 13.3 points in this matchup. Wilson will continue to target Pickens deep down the field, which, as noted just above, is a weakness for the Giants’ secondary. Pickens scored 22.1 points last week in Wilson’s first start.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.0
Matt: It’s been pretty feast or famine with Dobbins so far this season — three games with 18-plus fantasy points and single digits in the other three. The good news: His production is perfectly correlated with Los Angeles’ win-loss record — and the 3-3 Chargers are heavily favored to beat the depleted Saints on Sunday. Through Week 7, New Orleans has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and the second-most yards per carry. Moreover, the Saints have surrendered 18-plus fantasy points to five running backs over the last five weeks. They’re one of the softest matchups in the league — and getting softer with mounting injuries on both sides of the ball. This has all the makings of a 20-carry, 100-yard, goal-line-touchdown day for Dobbins.
PROJECTED POINTS: 13.7
Michelle: In his two starts with the Chiefs this season, Hunt has scored 18.7 and 21.3 fantasy points, getting at least 24 touches in both games. Expect his touch total to reach at least 20 again in Vegas. Since Week 5, the Chiefs have run the ball on nearly 53 percent of their plays — the third-highest rate in the NFL during that span. This is not the week for Kansas City to break tendencies. The Raiders have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs in 2024. And over the last two weeks, Vegas has given up 19-plus points to both Najee Harris (20.2) and Kyren Williams (19.6). The Chiefs shouldn’t need Patrick Mahomes to sling it a ton to beat the Raiders on Sunday.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.0
Matt: Don’t fix what ain’t broke, I always say. Otton appeared in this column last week and went on to outperform his projection by more than 10 fantasy points. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers lost both Chris Godwin (for the season) and Mike Evans (for a month) to injury. While guys like Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard should step up in their absence, I think the most fantasy-relevant beneficiary of the increased opportunity will be Tampa’s tight end. Otton’s already the third-most-targeted player on the team (just four targets behind Evans) and clearly has the trust of Baker Mayfield, who has distributed the most fantasy points to pass catchers of any QB this season. Otton now has weekly TE1 potential and is very nearly a must-start against Atlanta.
LOWER
PROJECTED POINTS: 17.3
Matt: Twice this season — both in games against divisional opponents with iffy defenses — Purdy has thrown three touchdown passes and finished as a top-six QB as a result. In the other five games, he maxed out at one TD pass and was essentially a dud (though he saved his Week 7 stat line with two goal-line rushing touchdowns). Only Jared Goff has tagged Dallas for three touchdown passes (in the vengeful Week 6 blowout for Detroit). The Cowboys are much more susceptible to the ground attack, so I’d expect Purdy to hand it off a ton on Sunday night. Plus, the 49ers quarterback just lost Brandon Aiyuk for the year (underperforming though he may have been), while Deebo Samuel is recovering from pneumonia. Purdy might still finish as a low-end QB1, but I’m avoiding him where I can.
PROJECTED POINTS: 15.9
Michelle: Kamara got a nice payday this week, but that doesn’t mean he will have a big fantasy day this weekend. Kamara’s production has been trending downward over his last three games, when he’s averaged just 2.5 yards per carry, 3.2 yards per touch, 51.3 scrimmage yards per game and 12.8 fantasy points per game. Those numbers are radically different than the ones he produced over his first four games: 4.5 yards per carry, 5.5 yards per touch, 134.0 scrimmage yards per game and 26.7 fantasy points per game.
The Chargers have been very tough against running backs, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to the position this season. James Conner (17.2 points) is the only RB who has hit 16 fantasy points against Los Angeles over the last six weeks, and he barely got there despite putting up 152 scrimmage yards!
PROJECTED POINTS: 12.9
Michelle: Outside of one marvelous quarter this season, Harrison has been disappointing for fantasy managers. In the first 15 minutes against the Rams in Week 2, the rookie recorded four catches, 130 receiving yards and two touchdowns for a total of 29 fantasy points. In the remainder of his seven games as a pro, Harrison has just 170 receiving yards, two touchdowns and 45 fantasy points. He has scored 5.6 fantasy points, 0 points (left game early with a concussion) and 5.1 points over his last three games. He has not hit 50 receiving yards since Week 3 and has not scored a touchdown since Week 4.
The Dolphins have been the toughest fantasy defense against receivers this season, having allowed just two wideouts to score 12-plus fantasy points against them.
PROJECTED POINTS: 10.3
Matt: In games primarily quarterbacked by Anthony Richardson, Michael Pittman Jr. has scored 7.1, 5.1, 7.6 and 9.3 fantasy points. That’s an average of — *runs numbers* — 7.3 per game. Youch. Incidentally, he scored double-digit points in the three games primarily quarterbacked by Joe Flacco. Richardson has managed to hit Alec Pierce downfield enough to supply him with 2.8 fantasy points per target, but Pittman is stuck at 1.3 points per target and has seen fewer than six targets per game from Richardson. It’s an unmitigated disaster. And until something changes drastically, you simply cannot start MPJ with Richardson under center. I’d rather play the waiver wire Jalens — McMillan and Tolbert — than Pittman for this week and the foreseeable future.
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