The aftermath of Week 1 is to wildly overreact in one direction. Isaiah Likely is Baltimore’s TE1! Marvin Harrison Jr. is slow! Allen Lazard finally is going to break out! OK, no one really believed that last one. My point stands.
Then Week 2 happens, and we swing the other way. Derek Carr is QB1! Nico Collins is the best receiver in the league! Brenton Strange is the Jaguars tight end you want! OK, no one really believes that last one. My point stands.
Now that we have two data points under our belts, we can make more informed lineup decisions. It doesn’t mean we won’t still swing and miss occasionally. But hopefully we’ll start to hit on a few more options as we have a better idea of what teams look like on both sides of the ball.
So without further ado … here are some potential sleepers for Week 3.
QUARTERBACK
Through two weeks, Las Vegas has been the NFL’s pass-happiest team. The Raiders have thrown the ball on more than two-thirds of their offensive snaps — a strategy dictated by game scripts — and they’ve had the ball for more than 22 minutes while trailing, per TruMedia. Only three teams have been worse in that last category through two weeks.
Week 3 offers hope in the form of the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers announced a big offensive change with Andy Dalton taking over for Bryce Young. A more efficient Carolina offense could mean a more effective Carolina defense. It still won’t make up for a secondary allowing a completion percentage over expectation of nearly 10 percent (per Next Gen Stats). Carolina’s run defense has been above average, while the Raiders are the NFL’s least-productive rushing team. This is a week for the ‘Stache to carry his crew to victory.
The start to Purdy’s fantasy season hasn’t been great. He didn’t have to do much in the Week 1 win over the Jets. In Week 2, the Niners asked him to do more, but Brian Flores’ Vikings defense kept him off balance all afternoon. None of this should be surprising to fantasy managers. Anyone who drafted Purdy knew that he was best used as a matchup-based starter. Guess what? This week is one of those matchups.
The Rams’ defense was expected to take a step back after Aaron Donald’s retirement and a trade that sent Ernest Jones to Tennessee. What we didn’t expect was for Los Angeles to be one of the most quarterback-friendly defenses around. According to Next Gen Stats, opponents have an average of 0.35 expected points added per dropback. Only the Washington Commanders have been worse. In layman’s terms, it means good things tend to happen to teams that throw the ball against the L.A. secondary. This looks like an opportunity for Purdy to rebound from a shaky start and post his best fantasy contest of 2024.
RUNNING BACK
Two weeks, two big rushing performances against the Colts. In Week 1, it was Joe Mixon carving up Indianapolis with 178 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. In Week 2, it was Josh Jacobs and the Packers who had their way with Indy’s stop unit. The second one was more egregious, since Green Bay played without Jordan Love. Maybe the gamesmanship of suggesting Love could play worked well enough to disrupt Indianapolis’ preparation. Or maybe the team’s just bad against the run.
We’ll get a little more clarity this week against Chicago. By raw counting stats, the Bears are a bottom-tier team in the run game. But if you dig into some of Next Gen Stats’ efficiency metrics, Chicago rises to the level of … mediocre. With Caleb Williams and the passing game besieged by defenses blitzing at high rates (38.4 percent!), don’t be surprised if offensive coordinator Shane Waldron leans on the run to take the pressure off his young quarterback.
Week 2 saw a changing of the guard in the Cleveland backfield. In his first real action this season, Foreman took over lead-back duties from Jerome Ford. Foreman led the team with 15 total touches (14 carries) and did most of his work in the third and fourth quarters with the Browns trying to close out their win over the Jaguars.
If the formula holds in Week 3, Foreman should get another chance to be Cleveland’s closer (all due respect to Emmanuel Clase) against the Giants. New York has sported one of the league’s worst run defenses through two weeks, allowing 5.3 yards per carry. Big Blue was torched by Aaron Jones for 94 yards on the ground in Week 1. Brian Robinson Jr. went even bigger with 133 rushing yards in Week 2.
WIDE RECEIVER
It’s been a tough start for the “Tank Dell is the Texans receiver you want” crowd. I know that because I was part of that crowd. Dell is firmly third statistically among Houston’s three wideouts after the first two games. But there are reasons why fantasy managers shouldn’t start hyperventilating into a bag yet. The first reason: It’s only been two games. Let’s maybe give this group some time to work out the trust-tree hierarchy. The second reason is that there are a lot of indications that it’s only a matter of time before Dell gets going. He’s on the field for 66 percent of the offensive snaps and has high route participation in an offense that runs a lot of 11 personnel.
He also could be a stylistic advantage for the Texans against the Vikings this week. Brian Flores is notoriously aggressive. Minnesota has one of the highest blitz rates in the league, while also using two high safeties more than just about any team. That should leave room for Dell, who runs most of his routes in the intermediate middle of the field, just behind the linebackers. With Nico Collins demanding more attention, Dell could have his first big game of the season in Week 3.
Can we still call Dortch a sleeper? Certainly if you listen to the NFL Fantasy Football Podcast or follow co-host LaQuan Jones, you’ve heard plenty about the Cardinals slot receiver. He had a respectable opening weekend with six catches for 47 yards. In Week 2 against the Rams, he was limited to just 21 snaps and two receptions, taking a backseat to Marvin Harrison Jr. in the rookie’s breakout game. I guess that’s what happens when your team runs out to an early 21-0 lead and cruises along.
That doesn’t mean Dortch is mothballed in the Cardinals’ offense, though. As Arizona’s primary slot receiver, he should play a big role in the Week 3 passing attack. Detroit hasn’t used a lot of two-high safety looks this season. That could change after Harrison’s big Week 2. If so, that should create space underneath for Dortch to get loose.
TIGHT END
Our tight end heroes have let us down so far this season. We’re still waiting for Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews to make a dent in the stat sheets. And then there’s Pat Freiermuth. Freiermuth’s path to performing as a later-round sleeper was predicated on Russell Wilson being Pittsburgh’s starting quarterback. We’re approaching Week 3 and it looks like Justin Fields’ grip on the job is only getting tighter. Fields is a nice option individually for fantasy, but his ability to elevate the players around him is still questionable.
So why do I think Freiermuth could get some run this week? Because he lives in the areas where Fields is working. Most of the Steelers’ passing game exists within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and mostly outside the numbers. Against a Chargers team that has allowed the fourth-most catches to tight ends, Freiermuth could be a key part of Pittsburgh’s offense this week.
Just before Bills-Dolphins last Thursday night, my colleague LaQuan Jones dropped a text in the group chat with me and Michael F. Florio proclaiming it was going to be a Jonnu Smith night. I agreed, somewhat facetiously, because the player we never talk about is the one who comes out of nowhere to produce on TNF. Sure enough, Smith led Miami in routes run and caught six passes for 53 yards.
This week, he won’t be as much of a surprise. It doesn’t mean he won’t be any less of a weapon. With Skylar Thompson starting at quarterback, look for Mike McDaniel to give his new signal-caller some easy throws. Especially going against a secondary that should focus a lot of attention on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Smith’s ADOT (average depth of target) might not be high, but he could feast on volume in Week 3.
DEFENSE
People contain multitudes. Will Levis included. The Titans quarterback is a lot of things. One thing he isn’t is boring. At least on the field. It feels like a weekly occurrence to see a mind-blowing Levis throw followed up by a mind-boggling turnover. His fumble in Week 2 left Titans head coach Brian Callahan dropping the same expletive-laden question as the rest of us watching at home. In 11 games as a starter, Levis has given the ball away 13 times.
That’s no good for the Titans’ offense, but it is good news for anyone streaming a defense against Tennessee. Levis is seemingly good for at least one gift turnover, and the Titans have welcomed defenders into their backfield (seven sacks allowed). All in all, it makes for a tasty matchup for Green Bay’s defense.
I admit that I jumped fully onto the Bears’ offensive bandwagon in the preseason. I was excited about Caleb Williams and the trio of receivers he would be working with. After two weeks, I am re-evaluating my previous stance. What I didn’t consider was an offensive line that has been, well … offensive to start the season. Williams has been under attack and the passing game can’t push the ball downfield.
If Indianapolis uses Houston’s blueprint from last week, expect Williams to see a lot more blitzes. Unless Chicago’s protection scheme has figured some things out, the Colts should be able to get home a few times and rack up some fantasy points for anyone streaming defenses.
Marcas Grant is a fantasy analyst for NFL.com and a man who has way too much leftover pizza in his fridge. Send him your leftover dilemmas or fantasy football questions on X @MarcasG or TikTok at marcasgrant.
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