We’ve made it through Week 1 — the week when we remember that we don’t know anything. We spend the entire offseason researching, planning, projecting and scheming. We mock draft endlessly, trying to find the perfect roster build for every scoring format. We agonize over every decision in our actual drafts, making sure we’ve got studs for the short term and upside players for the late season. Then Allen Lazardscores two touchdowns and finishes the week as the WR3.
Sigh. Back to the drawing board.
We move on to Week 2. We try not to overreact to everything we saw last week. We’ll definitely fail … but we’ll try. We’ll make adjustments and try to get better. To that end, we’re back for another week of sleepers. With one data point under our belts (small sample size, I know), we can evaluate possible outcomes for this week’s contests with the goal of getting it right.
Here are some names to consider.
QUARTERBACK
Bear with me … things are about to get spicy. Let’s just call last week for what it was: an unmitigated disaster. Jones completed just 52 percent of his passes — 57 percent, if you count the two that were caught by Vikings defenders. He was also limited to just 15 rushing yards, which was the thing that made him a viable fantasy starter in his breakout 2022 season. Jones was so ineffective Sunday that Giants fans were alternately chanting for Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. So … yeah. It was bad. Bad enough that Brian Daboll had to publicly reaffirm Jones as the team’s starter.
But there’s hope on the horizon in the form of the Washington Commanders. Their secondary was bad last year, and after one game this season, it doesn’t seem to have improved. Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers torched Washington’s secondary for 289 yards and four touchdowns las Sunay. I wouldn’t expect Jones to hit those yardage heights (he’s only topped 280 yards three times since his rookie season), but he should put together a good enough day to quiet fans and fantasy managers — for now.
RUNNING BACKS
In Week 1, we got a glimpse into how the Commanders will allocate their backfield touches. It wasn’t a huge surprise. Austin Ekeler will get most of the work in the passing game. Robinson will be the primary rusher. More accurately, Robinson will be the primary running back rusher since quarterback Jayden Daniels will have a large part in Washington’s ground work, too. (Side note: Robinson’s four targets and 49 receiving yards were a nice bonus. For now, it’s not something I’d count on every week.)
Last year, the Giants were awful against the run, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards in the NFL. There doesn’t appear to be much improvement through one week. Aaron Jones torched the G-Men for 94 yards and a touchdown on just 14 carries (6.7 yards per attempt). With New York also having to pay attention to the threat Daniels poses in the run game, Robinson should see some lanes open up on Sunday.
The Panthers had a downright awful start to the season. They were beaten every which way by the New Orleans Saints. Bryce Young and the offense were ineffective (to put it kindly). Derek Carr threw for 200 yards and three touchdowns. And Alvin Kamara had one of the best rushing performances we’ve seen from him in a long time. Kamara’s 83 rush yards were the most he’s had since the finale of the 2022 season.
Dobbins was viewed with heavy skepticism by fantasy drafters this summer. Injuries have limited him to just nine total games since his rookie season. Signing with the Chargers felt like the Last Chance Saloon. Week 1 suggested that more chances are on tap. Dobbins torched the rival Raiders for 135 rushing yards and a touchdown. More telling was his significant lead in backfield snaps over Gus Edwards (32 to 22). For now, Dobbins is Jim Harbaugh’s RB1, and we’ll get to see what he has for an encore against a Panthers defense that appears to be as hapless now as it was last season.
When Josh Jacobs left Las Vegas for Green Bay in free agency, fantasy managers rejoiced. It was Zamir White season! When the Raiders signed Mattison soon after, fantasy managers rejoiced. It was Zamir White season! But if Vegas’ Week 1 outing was an indication, Mattison could be more of a threat than anticipated.
The former Viking had a significant edge in snaps, playing 35 offensive plays compared with 23 for White. He was also much more involved in the passing game. Mattison ran 22 routes, earning six targets. It sure looks like he’s going to earn a lot of the passing-down and two-minute work. When the Raiders are in negative game scripts, White could be scarce in the Las Vegas attack. That’s likely to be the case against a Ravens team that should score consistently in Week 2.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Mitchell had sleeper vibes in Indy’s season opener. With Josh Downs (ankle) out of the lineup, the rookie was in line for a good number of targets against the Texans. Nearly everything went right. Mitchell’s routes (15) and targets (5) were what fantasy managers loved to see. The only thing that didn’t go right was the actual production. Just one catch for 2 yards. But there were also two deep shots where Mitchell got free, and Anthony Richardson missed him.
Alas, the fundamentals were strong. That’s enough to think Mitchell is primed to see more opportunities. That could come this week against a Packers defense that had its hands full with Philadelphia’s passing game in Week 1. Mitchell’s speed will make him a headache to cover. And with defenders having to be aware of Richardson’s mobility, the rookie should again find space to roam. Now it’s up to the quarterback to make the connection.
Last week was a successful opening salvo for a Buccaneers offense that promised to be more explosive under new offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Tampa went extra heavy on three wide receiver sets, using them on 82 percent of their snaps in Week 1, compared with 70 percent in 2023. Benefitting from the three-wide approach was the rookie out of Washington. While McMillan had only one catch (a 32-yard touchdown), he led Tampa in snaps and was second among Bucs receivers in routes run.
He also moved all over the formation, including lining up in the slot on nearly one-third of his snaps. That was exactly the spot from which the Rams terrorized Lions cornerback Carlton Davis last week. The former Bucs defender gave up 113 yards on eight catches (11 targets) in the season opener. This week, Davis will contest with the duo of McMillan and Chris Godwin. With Tampa’s offense looking like it’s ready to have a high-octane season, the rookie could open up for bigger production in Week 2.
TIGHT ENDS
We’ve got ourselves a good ol’ fashioned revenge game. Hurst played in nine games for the Panthers last season, totaling just 184 receiving yards and a touchdown. His season was cut short due to a concussion that eventually landed him on season-ending injured reserve. In March, Carolina released Hurst, and the veteran signed with the Chargers several days later. Considering the state of the Panthers offense, they might have done Hurst a favor.
Don’t look for the veteran tight end to repay kindness in kind. Carolina had a tough time against the Saints tight end duo of Foster Moreau and Juwan Johnson. Hurst was on the field plenty in L.A.’s season-opening win over the Raiders. He played more than 60 percent of the offensive snaps and had an 80 percent route participation. Chargers pass-catchers won’t be the kings of air yards, but Hurst could see enough volume — especially near the end zone — to make him worth a streaming effort.
With Puka Nacua on injured reserve and out for at least the next four games, everyone is searching for the next man up in the Rams passing game. Demarcus Robinson! Tyler Johnson! Jordan Whittington!!! May I offer you another option? Take a look at Colby Parkinson. After four unremarkable seasons in Seattle, Parkinson is already making an impact in Los Angeles. In Week 1, he tied a career-high with 47 receiving yards.
Matthew Stafford has not been afraid to feature his tight ends. Since landing in Los Angeles in 2021, nearly 10 percent of the veteran’s throws have been to the tight end position, according to Next Gen Stats. That’s not bad considering how much Stafford has peppered Cooper Kupp during their time together. With one big target earner out of the picture, Parkinson could see more work — especially in the soft middle of the Arizona defense.
DEFENSE
Let’s have a talk about the Cleveland Browns offense. It’s bad. The team was missing two of its top offensive linemen in Week 1. They can’t muster any sort of ground game. And Deshaun Watson continues to be a disaster under center. The problems were exacerbated by a Dallas defense that went hunting for the quarterback, but some of these problems existed long before Week 1.
Jacksonville opened its season against another team with offensive line questions in the Miami Dolphins. The Jags were able to get a decent amount of pressure on Tua Tagovailoa, registering three sacks. The upside is that they did all of that damage without sending a lot of extra rushers. If they can do something similar this week against a Browns offense looking for answers, they could have a solid fantasy day.
Speaking of bad offenses … hello, Carolina. Any excitement that existed for a new-look Panthers offense under Dave Canales evaporated like smoke in a tornado after Week 1. Bryce Young still looks very far away from being a franchise — or even starting-caliber — quarterback. There was no running game to speak of. Instead of #KeepPounding, it was the Panthers getting pounded.
Now they have to try and slow down Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. The Bolts duo logged eight QB pressures and 2.5 sacks last week against the Raiders. If Los Angeles can get out to a lead against an equally woeful Carolina defense, look for these two pass rushers to pin their ears back and feast in the offensive backfield. We might have found an early target for anyone streaming defenses in 2024.
