As we enter the fourth week of the 2023 NFL season, we’re starting to gain some clarity on who will be this year’s top performers and who is setting us up for disappointment. But it’s still early. We don’t have all the answers yet. And while there are definitely a few stars I’m moving on from (keep reading), there are still several names I’m not ready to cross off just yet (looking at you, Josh Jacobs).
Below are my top guys I am trying to buy low and sell high in fantasy this week:
BUY LOW
Last week’s return of Minshew Mania may have some fantasy managers under-appreciating how studly Richardson looked in his first two NFL starts. After putting up 21 fantasy points in Week 1, Richardson scored 18 points in one half of work in Week 2 prior to suffering a concussion. He has been a touchdown machine so far — finding the end zone four times in just over five quarters. Before his value jumps, go trade for him at a potential discount.
Talk of Henry being “washed” after one poor fantasy performance is asinine. The Browns have a really good defense — ranked No. 1 overall and in scoring — that shut down the entire Titans offense last week, not just Henry. It’s OK; that happens sometimes. Over his first two weeks of the season, Henry scored 13.9 points against the Saints (who also boast a very good run defense) and 18.5 points against the Chargers. There’s no need to stress about his low snap count, as he leads the NFL in percentage of team touches (46.7) this season. The Titans have favorable upcoming matchups that should see Henry receiving his usual 20-plus touches per outing. Another thing worth noting is that Henry gets to face the Texans TWICE during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15 and 17) — a defense that Henry has absolutely owned over the years.
No running back has played more offensive snaps than Williams this season. The second-year pro has played an absurd 86.1 percent of the Rams’ offensive snaps, according to Next Gen Stats. He also has the second-most targets (19) at his position in 2023. Efficiency is not necessarily Williams’ forte, but volume is king in fantasy football. Due to lower name value and a poor fantasy outing in Week 3, you may be able to find this workhorse back on the clearance rack.
Would you believe me if I told you Tee Higgins has tallied the same number of targets as Mike Evans? I know, it’s hard to fathom, since Higgins has just 10 receptions through the first three games. Higgins has seen at least eight targets in each game, yet he’s posted fewer than 25 yards with zero touchdowns in two of those three games. The good news is that the Bengals will face the Titans, Cardinals and Seahawks over the next three weeks, three defenses that rank in the bottom half against the pass. This should make things much easier for the Bengals’ passing attack as it works to get back on track. Talent typically wins out, and Higgins’ production should increase as the season progresses.
SELL HIGH
It may seem weird to “sell high” on a player coming off a three-game suspension who has yet to play a snap this season, but I think Kamara’s fantasy value could be at its peak. There are many fantasy managers desperate for a good running back, and Kamara has enough name value that people will jump at the chance to trade for him ahead of his return to the field Sunday. But let’s not forget that Kamara was not a fantasy force last season. He put up a few big performances, but he also posted 10 games with 12 or fewer fantasy points, including five games with fewer than eight. The emergence of Chris Olave seemed to deflate Kamara’s target share greatly in the second half of 2022. The veteran playmaker should still be a solid RB2 the rest of season, regardless of who’s under center, but you could likely trade him for more value than that right now. Something to consider: trading Kamara for a guy like Derrick Henry.
It took an absolute beatdown from the Dolphins for Sutton to finally have a “big” fantasy day. Sutton still has yet to hit 20 fantasy points in a game with Russell Wilson as his starting QB. In fact, the veteran wideout has scored 13 or fewer points in all but four games since Wilson arrived. After a solid fantasy week, you may be able to trade Sutton for a younger player who offers more upside moving forward (e.g., Tank Dell).
For whatever reason, fantasy managers will not give up on the Kyle Pitts fantasy experience. I have never been a part of it, but I can’t imagine it’s a fun ride. In more than half of his games since 2022, Pitts has scored fewer than FIVE fantasy points. He has scored more than 10 fantasy points just twice during that span. The potential “ceiling” that people keep holding out hope for might just be lower than we want it to be. Arthur Smith has told us multiple times that he does not care about our fantasy teams, while also proving he does not prioritize feeding Pitts the ball. The young tight end actually had a somewhat solid fantasy performance (at least for him) in Week 3 with five receptions for 41 yards, which may help boost his trade value. There will always be someone in your league who believes in the mighty Kyle Pitts. Find that person and take advantage.
