Schedule analysis: Final 5 weeks of first-half schedule

Over the next 5 weeks, the Lakers and Dallas hold the record for the most home games in the West.

We’ve progressed slightly beyond the midpoint of the first half of the 2020-21 NBA schedule, which has been continually evolving. The league’s decision to only schedule just over half of the proposed 1,080 games for this season was a wise move. Despite this forethought, they’ve had to adjust their plans.

With 22 games having been postponed because teams didn’t have enough healthy and non-quarantined players, and with two teams having been hit particularly hard by absences, the league has started adding games back into the schedule. Over the last week, they’ve inserted six games back into the last five weeks of the schedule, shifting a couple others around to accommodate the additions.

As of February 1, the situation stands as described below, with the potential for more changes in the upcoming days.

The big hits

COVID issues have severely affected two teams. The Washington Wizards experienced six consecutive game postponements from Jan. 13-22. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies had a game postponed on Jan. 15, followed by five more consecutive postponements from Jan. 20-27.

Last week saw three sets of schedule changes which reinstated three games to the Wizards’ schedule, effectively reducing their shortfall from six to three games. The Grizzlies resumed work on Saturday and have had one game restored. Therefore, more alterations may be on the horizon, with February 23 being a potential make-up day that would prevent Memphis from having to play three consecutive games.

In addition to the Wiz and Grizz, there are six teams trailing by two games. Six other teams have completed all their games scheduled so far.

More tests for the Jazz

Currently, Donovan Mitchell and Utah are in 2nd place in the West.

The Utah Jazz won 11 straight games before losing in Denver on Sunday and currently sit in second place in the Western Conference at 15-5. They’re the only team in the league that ranks in the top six in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The Jazz haven’t played a particularly difficult schedule – 10 of their 20 games have come against teams that currently have losing records – but they have plenty of quality wins. The Jazz have the second best record (7-3) in games played between the 15 teams that are currently over .500.

More games are on the way within that group. The Jazz are facing the West’s most challenging remaining first-half schedule, based on the cumulative winning percentage of their opponents (0.538). Over the next five weeks, their 16 games are reasonably evenly split between teams with current winning records (9) and those without (7). However, six out of the 16 games are against the other six teams that are at least three games above .500. These include the Clippers (twice), the Lakers, the Sixers (twice), and the Bucks.

Beyond those three against the L.A. teams, the Jazz have only one remaining first-half game within the Western Conference. They’re scheduled to play 12 of their 16 (including each of their next eight) games against the other conference, holding a 5-2 record against the East thus far.

Western Conference breakdown

H, R = Home, Road
B2B = Back-to-backs
RA | RDA = Rest-advantage, Rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage
>.500 = Games against teams that entered Feb. with winning records
OppO = Games against teams that entered Feb. in the top 10 & bottom 10 in offensive efficiency
OppD = Games against teams that entered Feb. in the top 10 & bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

Rest advantage = Didn’t play the day before. Opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back.
Rest disadvantage = Playing the second game of a back-to-back. Opponent didn’t play the day before.
Through Sunday, teams are 37-27 (.578) in rest-advantage games, 19-12 at home and 18-15 on the road.

Western Conference notes:

• The Mavs are tied with the Lakers for the most home-heavy schedule over the next five weeks. Of their 16 remaining first-half games, 11 are scheduled for the American Airlines Center. That includes a seven-game, 14-day homestand that begins Thursday with a two-game series against the Warriors.

• The Nuggets have four rest-advantage games remaining in the first half, and they’re four of their last six games before the break. Their defense will be tested, with eight of their 17 games against teams that rank in the top 10 offensively. That includes two games each against the Bucks and Lakers.

• The Warriors, who are just 4-4 against the Eastern Conference thus far, have a stretch of nine straight games against the East from Feb. 11-26. Five of those nine games are at home and seven of the nine are against East teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 offensively.

• The Rockets enter February having won five straight games. And they can keep that run going over the next couple of weeks. Eight of their next 10 games are on the road, but seven of their first nine are against teams that currently have losing records. The other two are against the Grizzlies and Spurs.

• The Clippers and Jazz currently have the two best records in the league, and they’ll face each other in a two-game series in L.A. on Feb. 17 and 19, part of a six-game homestand for the Clips. That series is preceded by one of the easier five-game stretches of the next five weeks, where the Clips will play the Kings, Wolves, Bulls, Cavs and Heat.

• The Lakers have just one back-to-back between now and the All-Star break, and it’s their last two games of the first-half schedule. They’ll close it out hosting the Suns on Mar. 2 and visiting the Kings on Mar. 3.

• The Grizzlies have four games over the next five weeks against the Clippers (x2), Lakers and Bucks. But they also have a stretch (Feb. 6-19) where they’re scheduled to play seven of eight against teams that currently have losing records. That includes two games games against the Pelicans.

• The Timberwolves are tied with Golden State for the West’s most road-heavy schedule over the next five weeks, with 11 of their 17 scheduled games away from the Target Center. They begin February with a five-game trip that includes two games in Oklahoma City on Friday and Saturday. After that trip is done, they’re scheduled to play nine of their final 11 first-half games against the Eastern Conference.

• The Pelicans are one of six teams with a league-high 18 games remaining on the first-half schedule. That includes five back-to-backs.

• The Thunder, with a game against Memphis added into their schedule, have a stretch of eight games in 12 days (with three back-to-backs), from Feb. 16-27.

• The Suns have a seven-game, 12-day homestand starting Feb. 5, and all seven games are against the Eastern Conference. It includes some fun matchups against the Celtics, Bucks, Sixers and Nets.

• The Blazers have a stretch of five games in seven days from Feb. 11-17, though it’s not too difficult in regard to opponent strength. It starts with visit from the Sixers, but continues with games against the Cavs, Mavs, Thunder and Pelicans.

• The Kings‘ 30th-ranked defense will face teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively in eight of their 17 games over the next five weeks. That includes two games against Brooklyn.

• The Spurs have the league’s easiest next five weeks in regard to opposing offenses, with only two of their 16 games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 offensively and 11 against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10.

Getting tough on the Cavs

Collin Sexton, a second-year guard, has played a crucial role for Cleveland this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are one of the surprise teams of the season thus far, sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference at 9-11 through Sunday. More surprising than their record is that the Cavs rank eighth defensively after ranking 30th in each of the last two seasons.

So far, the Cavaliers have not had the easiest league schedule, and they’ve managed to secure three victories over the Sixers (1) and Nets (2). However, the path is about to become more challenging. After finishing a consecutive, home-and-away series with the 5-14 Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday, they will face nine consecutive games against teams that started February with winning records.

This period encompasses two matches each against the LA Clippers with a 16-5 record and the Milwaukee Bucks with an 11-8 record. These four games are included in a phase where the Cavs are competing against teams that are among the top six in offensive efficiency in six out of seven matches. Therefore, their defense, currently ranked eighth, will face a significant challenge.

In regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage (0.566), the Cavs have the toughest schedule over the next five weeks. Of their 16 remaining games, 14 are against the 16 teams that are currently at or above .500.

Therefore, by the time we reach the All-Star break on March 5, we will have a clearer understanding of the authenticity of the Cavs’ improvement.

Eastern Conference breakdown

H, R = Home, Road
B2B = Back-to-backs
RA | RDA = Rest-advantage, Rest-disadvantage games
OppPCT = Cumulative opponent winning percentage
>.500 = Games against teams that entered Feb. with winning records
OppO = Games against teams that entered Feb. in the top 10 & bottom 10 in offensive efficiency
OppD = Games against teams that entered Feb. in the top 10 & bottom 10 in defensive efficiency

Eastern Conference notes:

• The Hawks‘ next five weeks are fairly balanced, though they have a relatively tough slate in regard to opposing defenses. They’ll play seven games against teams that currently rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency (including all three of their meetings with the Celtics) and only two against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10.

• The Celtics have the league’s toughest next five weeks in regard to opposing offenses. Only two of their 18 games are against teams that currently rank in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency, and one of those is Tuesday, when they begin a five-game trip at Golden State. They have nine games against teams that currently rank in the top 11 offensively, including two against the second-ranked Clippers and three against the 11th-ranked Hawks.

• The Nets have the league’s third toughest next five weeks in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage, though only eight of their 15 games are against that currently have winning records. They begin February by hosting the Clippers on Tuesday, and they’ll play both L.A. teams at Staples Center at the end of a five-game trip. Nine of their last 10 games before the break are against the Western Conference.

• After visiting the Heat on Monday and hosting the Sixers on Wednesday, the Hornets are scheduled to play 13 of their remaining 15 first-half games against the Western Conference. That includes two games each against the Warriors, Wolves and Jazz. Their first-half schedule concludes with a six-game trip through the West.

• The Bulls have an East-high 11 games over the next five weeks against teams that are currently below .500. They begin February with two-game series against the Knicks (in Chicago) and Magic (in Orlando). They’re also scheduled to play the Pelicans twice (Feb. 10 and Mar. 3).

• The Pistons begin February in the middle of a five-games-in-seven-nights stretch. And they’ll have another from Feb. 11-17.

• The Pacers are tied (with the Clippers and Heat) for the most games (8) over the next five weeks against teams that rank in the top 10 defensively. And that’s eight different opponents. Four of those eight games are on the road and in a stretch of five in seven days that concludes their first-half schedule (Feb. 26 – Mar. 4).

• The Heat have the league’s biggest differential between rest-advantage games (7) and rest-disadvantage games (1) over the next five weeks. No other team has a differential bigger than three.

• The Bucks are scheduled to play 12 of their final 17 first-half games against the Western Conference, with two games each against Denver and Oklahoma City. They have the longest homestand for any team in the first half schedule, eight games over 15 days (Feb. 16 – Mar. 2). It begins with two-game series against Toronto and ends with visits from the Clippers and Nuggets.

• The Knicks have the league’s easiest next five weeks in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage. But they’re tied for the most rest-disadvantage games over the next five weeks. They have five more, starting with their visit to Chicago on Monday.

• The Magic‘s offense has been pretty anemic of late, but they play four of their next six games against teams that rank 27th, 28th and 30th defensively. They’re tied with Brooklyn and Philadelphia for the fewest remaining games (15) on the first-half schedule.

• The Sixers are tied with the Heat and Lakers for the fewest back-to-backs over the next five weeks. They have just one and it’s their next two games. They’re in Charlotte on Wednesday and hosting the Blazers on Thursday.

• The Raptors will play nine of their next 10 games on the road. They’re the only team with no rest-advantage games over the next five weeks. In fact, none of their 17 remaining first-half games are against a team that played the day/night before. The Raps also have the league’s most East-heavy schedule over the next five weeks, with 13 of their 17 games within the conference. That includes two-game series against the Bucks (in Milwaukee) and the Sixers (in Tampa).

• The Wizards begin February with a stretch of five games in seven days. They have another from Feb. 22-28 that takes them from L.A. to Denver to Washington and then up to Boston.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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