Numbers preview: Eastern Conference finals

In 3 regular-season meetings, Milwaukee grabbed 55.0% of available rebounds — the best mark for any team against Atlanta.

Either the Atlanta Hawks or Milwaukee Bucks are going to the NBA Finals. For the Bucks, it would seemingly be a long time coming, having disappointed in the playoffs in the last two years. For the Hawks, it would seemingly be ahead of schedule, with a 22-year-old star in just his third season.

• Series hub | Steve Aschburner’s series preview

Here are some statistical notes to get you ready for Eastern Conference finals, with links to let you dive in and explore more. Game 1 is Wednesday at 8:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

All stats and rankings are through June 21. All rankings are among the 16 playoff teams.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Milwaukee Bucks (46-26, 8-3)

First round: Beat Miami in four games
Conf. semis: Beat Brooklyn in seven games
Pace: 97.6 (6)
OffRtg: 108.5 (12)
DefRtg: 102.8 (1)
NetRtg: +5.7 (5)

Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

vs. Atlanta: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Playoffs: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Bucks efficiency by round

AdjO = OffRtg – opponent’s regular-season DefRtg
AdjD = DefRtg – opponent’s regular-season OffRtg

Bucks playoff notes — General:

1. Have outscored their opponents by 17.2 points per 100 possessions (allowing 89.6) in the first quarter. Are a +1.7 per 100 (allowing 107.4) thereafter.
2. Lead the playoffs in both fast break points differential (+5.5 per game) and points in the paint differential (+9.8 per game).
3. Lead the playoffs in total rebounding percentage (53.9%).
4. 6-1 after leading by double-digits. Only team with a winning record (3-2) after trailing by double-digits. 3-1 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.

Bucks postseason shot profile

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Bucks playoff notes — Offense:

1. 17.6% of their possessions, the highest rate in the playoffs (though down from 19.4% in the regular season), have been in transition. Their 1.01 points per transition possession rank 12th.
2. Have the second biggest differential between their field goal percentage in the paint (59.5%, second) and their effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint (45.0%, 12th). Rank 14th in 3-point percentage (31.2%), having seen the biggest drop from the regular season (38.9%, fifth).
3. Also rank 14th in free throw percentage (70.7%).
4. Rank 15th in ball movement (269 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and seventh in player movement (10.8 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possessions). Rank last with just 1.4 secondary assists per game.

Bucks efficiency and four factors — Offense

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Bucks playoff notes — Defense:

1. The Heat saw the biggest drop in points scored per 100 possessions (by a wide margin) from the regular season to the first round. The Nets saw the biggest drop in points scored per 100 possessions from the first round to the conference semis.
2. Have held their opponent under a point possession in six of their 11 games. No other team has allowed less than a point per possession more than three times.
3. Only team that ranks in the top five in each of the four factors on defense.
4. Have allowed just 11.4 transition points per game, fewest in the postseason.
5. Rank first in both opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (58.7%) and the (lowest) percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come in the restricted area (21%).
6. Have allowed just 2.0 corner 3s per game, fewest in the playoffs.
7. Have had the best clutch defense of the four teams remaining, having allowed just 50 points on 58 clutch possessions (86.2 per 100). Their opponents have shot just 16-for-51 (31%) on clutch shots.

Bucks efficiency and four factors – Defense

Bucks playoff notes — Lineups:

1. Starting lineup — Holiday, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Tucker and Lopez — has outscored its opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions, a mark which ranks seventh among 12 lineups that have played at least 75 minutes. It ranks first defensively (93.0 points allowed per 100 possessions) and 11th offensively (103.3 scored per 100).
2. The starting lineup has committed turnovers on just 8.9% of its possessions, the lowest rate among those 12 lineups. It’s recorded assists on only 40.7% of its field goals, also the lowest mark.
3. Best on-court point differential per 100 possessions among two-man combinations that have played at least 100 minutes: Middleton and Tucker (+15.2). Worst mark: Connaughton and Lopez (-7.7).
4. Have allowed 99.5 points per 100 possessions with P.J. Tucker on the floor. That’s the lowest on-court mark among 98 players who’ve averaged at least 20 minutes per game. Brook Lopez (99.6) and Khris Middleton (99.7) have the second and third lowest marks.

Bucks playoff notes — Individuals:

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the playoffs with 11.4 rebounds per game and 11 double-doubles. He’s grabbed 28.2% of available defensive rebounds while he’s been on the floor, the third highest rate among 145 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes per game.
2. Antetokounmpo has accounted for 42.4% of the Bucks’ points in the fourth quarter, the highest rate among 125 players who’ve played at least 25 fourth-quarter minutes.
3. Antetokounmpo leads all players with 19.6 points in the paint per game. His 16.0 restricted-area points per game are 4.7 more than any other player. His 38 dunks are also the most in the playoffs.
4. Antetokounmpo has shot 66.7% (on 162 attempts) in the paint and has an effective field goal percentage of 31.9% on (80) shots from outside the paint. That’s the biggest differential among 75 players with at least 20 field goal attempts both inside and outside. Brook Lopez has the fourth biggest differential (70.7% vs. 44.7%). Antetokounmpo has shot 9-for-47 (19%) from 3-point range, the worst mark among 71 players with at least 25 3-point attempts. He’s one of three players with at least 25 3-point attempts with none of them having come from the corners.
5. Antetokounmpo has a free throw rate of 38.4 attempts per 100 shots from the field, down from 52.8 in the regular season. That’s the third biggest drop among 80 players with at least 50 playoff field goal attempts.
6. Opponents have shot just 43.6% at the rim when Antetokounmpo has been there to protect it. That’s the best rim protection mark (by a wide margin) among 22 players who’ve defended at least 35 shots at the rim.
7. Pat Connaughton has taken 81.6% of his shots (40/49) from 3-point range, the highest rate among 91 players with at least 45 field goal attempts in the playoffs. Bryn Forbes has the second highest rate (77.5%).
8. Forbes has accounted for 46.8% of the Bucks’ 3-pointers while he’s been on the floor. That’s the highest rate among 122 players who’ve played at least 100 minutes.
9. Jrue Holiday has an effective field goal percentage of 44.2%, the worst mark among 39 players with at least 100 field goal attempts in the playoffs and down from 57.1% in the regular season. That’s the biggest drop among 80 players with at least 50 playoff field goal attempts. He’s shot 15-for-61 from 3-point range, the third worst mark among 71 players with at least 25 3-point attempts.
10. Lopez has shot 29-for-35 (83%) in the restricted area, the best mark among 42 players with at least 25 restricted-area attempts. He’s scored 0.480 points per touch, the second highest mark among 70 players with at least 250 touches.
11. Lopez has taken 33.3% of his shots from 3-point range, down from 43.9% in the regular season. That’s the sixth biggest drop among 80 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs.
12. Lopez ranks third in the playoffs with 1.7 blocks per game. The 51.8% that opponents have shot at the rim when he’s been there to protect it is the third best rim protection mark among 22 players who’ve defended at least 35 shots at the rim.
13. Antetokounmpo (from 11.0 to 13.6) and Lopez (from 5.0 to 7.2) have seen the third and fourth biggest jumps in rebounds per game from the regular season to the playoffs among players who’ve played in at least four playoff games.
14. Khris Middleton has an effective field goal percentage of 63.3% at home and 41.9% on the road. That’s the third biggest home-road differential among 73 players with at least 25 field goal attempts both at home and on the road. Lopez has the third biggest road-home differential (67.7% on the road, 43.2% at home).
15. P.J. Tucker has accounted for just 7.0% of the Bucks’ points while he’s been on the floor, the lowest rate among 122 players who’ve played at least 100 total minutes. That rate is just 2.0% in the fourth quarter.
16. Tucker has shot 9-for-29 (31%) on corner 3s, the second worst mark among 21 players who’ve attempted at least 15. 88% of his 3-point attempts have come from the corners, the highest rate among 71 players with at least 25 (non-backcourt) 3-point attempts.
17. Tucker has a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of just 0.041 (2/49), the third lowest among 91 players with at least 45 field goal attempts. Connaughton has the sixth lowest rate (0.082).

Atlanta Hawks (41-31, 8-4)

First round: Beat New York in five games.
Conf. semis: Beat Philadelphia in seven games.
Pace: 97.7 (5)
OffRtg: 108.6 (11)
DefRtg: 107.7 (4)
NetRtg: +0.9 (6)

Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

vs. Milwaukee: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Playoffs: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Hawks efficiency by round

AdjO = OffRtg – opponent’s regular-season DefRtg
AdjD = DefRtg – opponent’s regular-season OffRtg

Hawks playoff notes — General:

1. Rank second in turnover differential, having committed 1.6 fewer per game than their opponents.
2. Best second quarter team in the playoffs (+12.5 points per 100 possessions).
3. 5-2 after leading by double-digits. 2-4 after trailing by double-digits. 5-2 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.

Hawks postseason shot profile

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Hawks playoff notes — Offense:

1. Have seen the second biggest drop in the percentage of their shots that have come in the restricted area from the regular season (29%, 16th of 30) to the playoffs (23%, 16th of 16).
2. Rank 10th in field goal percentage in the paint (54.9%), 10th in mid-range field goal percentage (39.8%), and 10th in 3-point percentage (34.6%).
3. Rank last in ball movement (269 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and 11th in player movement (10.7 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possessions).
4. Lead the playoffs in both the percentage of their possessions that have been pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions (28.5%) and the percentage that have been roll-man possessions (8.2%). Their 0.96 points per possession on ball-handler possessions rank eighth and their 1.30 points per possession on roll-man possessions rank fourth.
5. Lead the playoffs with 32.7 pull-up field goal attempts per game. Their effective field goal percentage on pull-up jumpers (45.0%) ranks ninth.
6. Have scored 99.4 points per 100 possessions in the first quarter and 111.9 per 100 thereafter.
7. Have had the best clutch offense of the four teams remaining, having scored 71 points on 58 clutch possessions (122.4 per 100). Have shot 24-for-25 on clutch free throws.

Hawks efficiency and four factors — Offense

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Hawks playoff notes — Defense:

1. Rank first in opponent 2-point percentage (48.3%). Rank third in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (60.8%), third in opponent field goal percentage elsewhere in the paint (39.2%) and third in opponent mid-range field goal percentage (35.9%).
2. Have seen the biggest jump in opponent turnover rate from the regular season (12.4 per 100 possessions, 29th) to the playoffs (13.3, third).
3. Have also seen the biggest jump in opponent free throw rate from the regular season (23.7 attempts per 100 shots from the field, 10th) to the playoffs (30.8, 14th).
4. Rank third with 0.92 charges drawn per game.
5. Have allowed just 2.2 corner 3s per game, second fewest in the playoffs.

Hawks efficiency and four factors – Defense

Hawks playoff notes — Lineups:

1. Starting lineup — Young, Bogdanovic, Huerter, Collins and Capela — has been outscored by 6.6 points per 100 possessions, the third worst mark among 12 lineups that have played at least 75 minutes. The lineup with De’Andre Hunter instead of Huerter was a +16.0 per 100, the fourth best mark among those 12 lineups.
2. The Huerter lineup has grabbed just 44.2% of available rebounds, the lowest rate among those 12 lineups.
3. Best on-court point differential per 100 possessions among two-man combinations that have played at least 100 minutes (and don’t include Hunter): Bogdanovic and Gallinari (+13.5). Worst mark: Huerter and Capela (-5.7).
4. Have scored just 90.2 points per 100 possessions with Solomon Hill on the floor. That’s the third lowest on-court mark among 145 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes per game.

Hawks playoff notes — Individuals:

1. Bogdan Bogdanovic has seen the fourth biggest drop in effective field goal percentage from the regular season (60.2%) to the playoffs (47.6%) among 80 players with at least 50 playoff field goal attempts.
2. Bogdanovic has shot just 18-for-62 (29.0%) on catch-and-shoot 3s, the third worst mark among 41 players who’ve attempted at least 25. He’s tied for third with 11 corner 3s (on 29 attempts) in the playoffs.
3. Bogdanovic has a free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of just 0.054 (9/168), the second lowest among 80 players with at least 50 field goal attempts.
4. Bogdanovic leads the playoffs with 3.8 deflections per game.
5. Clint Capela is the only player with at least 50 field goal attempts, with all his shots having come in the paint. He’s scored 1.31 points per possession as a roll man, the second best mark among 11 players with at least 20 roll-man possessions.
6. Opponents have shot 50.7% at the rim when Antetokounmpo has been there to protect it. That’s the second best rim protection mark among 22 players who’ve defended at least 35 shots at the rim.
7. Capela has allowed just 0.52 points per possession on isolations, the best mark among 17 players who’ve defended at least 20 isolation possessions. John Collins has the fifth best mark (0.77).
8. Collins has shot 34-for-43 (79%) in the restricted area, the third best mark among 42 players with at least 25 restricted-area attempts.
9. Collins has shot 9-for-16 (56%) on corner 3s, tied for the best mark among 21 players who’ve attempted at least 15.
10. Collins leads the playoffs with five drawn charges. Capela ranks second with four.
11. Danilo Gallinari has shot 35-for-37 (94.6%) from the free throw line, the second best mark among 37 players with at least 25 free throw attempts. Capela has the second worst mark (12-for-27, 44.4%).
12. Kevin Huerter has shot 16-for-27 (59%) on pull-up 2-pointers, the fourth best mark among 30 players who’ve attempted at least 25.
13. Huerter has shot 18-for-35 (51%) on wide-open 3s, the fourth best mark among 21 players who’ve attempted at least 25.
14. Tony Snell has seen the fourth biggest drop in minutes per game from the regular season (21.1) to the playoffs (7.7) among 171 players who’ve played in at least four playoff games.
15. Lou Williams has taken only 36% of his shots from the restricted area or 3-point range, the third lowest rate among 80 players with at least 50 field goal attempts.
16. Trae Young‘s usage rate of 33.5% ranks sixth and is the highest among players still playing. His fourth-quarter usage rate of 39.5% ranks third. He ranks second in time of possession (10.0 minutes per game), average seconds per touch (6.49) and average dribbles per touch (6.17).
17. Young leads the playoffs in both clutch points (30) and clutch assists (7). He’s 16-for-17 on clutch free throws, with no other player having made more than seven.
18. Young has an effective field goal percentage of 47.2%, the second worst mark among 39 players with at least 100 field goal attempts in the playoffs. Bogdanovic has the third worst mark (47.6%).
19. Young ranks second in the playoffs with 10.4 assists per game. He’s accounted for 62.2% of the Hawks’ assists while he’s been on the floor, the highest rate among 122 players who’ve played at least 100 playoff minutes. He has 36 assists on dunks, 20 more than any other player (Holiday is second with 16). His 37 assists to Collins are the most from one player to a single teammate and his 33 assists to Capela are the third most.

Regular season matchup

Bucks won, 2-1

• Jan. 24 @ Milwaukee – Bucks 129, Hawks 115
• Apr. 15 @ Atlanta – Bucks 120, Hawks 109
• Apr. 25 @ Atlanta – Hawks 111, Bucks 104

Pace: 98.7 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes
Milwaukee OffRtg: 119.3 (6th vs. Atlanta)
Atlanta OffRtg: 113.2 (13th vs. Milwaukee)

Total points scored, season series

Matchup notes:

1. Trae Young played in only the second (Apr. 15) meeting and shot 3-for-17 (his second worst shooting game of the season) and had six turnovers. But the Hawks did outscore the Bucks by two points in his 37 minutes. Jrue Holiday was his primary defender and Young shot 0-for-8 (with no free throw attempts) with that matchup.
2. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Clint Capela each missed the first meeting, while Danilo Gallinari missed the second. P.J. Tucker was not with the Bucks for the first meeting and also missed the third meeting.
3. Over the three games, the Bucks won the first half by 39 points, while the Hawks won the second half by 21. The much bigger difference was on the Hawks’ end of the floor; They scored 94.0 points per 100 possessions before halftime and 133.1 per 100 after halftime.
4. The Hawks’ turnover rate of 10.5 per 100 possessions was their second lowest vs. any opponent.
5. The Bucks grabbed 55.0% of available rebounds, the best mark for any team against the Hawks. The Hawks’ 7.3 second chance points per game were their lowest average vs. any opponent.
6. On Jan. 24 (the game Capela missed), the Bucks grabbed 47.7% of available offensive rebounds, the highest rate for any team in a game this season. On Apr. 25, they grabbed just 8.9% of available offensive rebounds, the seventh lowest rate for any team in a game this season.
7. The Hawks were a +21, holding the Bucks to 100.0 points per 100 possessions and grabbing 83.1% of available defensive rebounds, in Capela’s 71 minutes on the floor. They were outscored by 39 points, allowing 135.5 points per 100 possessions and grabbing just 54.7% of available defensive rebounds, in Capela’s 73 minutes off the floor. His 16 rebounds on Apr. 15 were the fourth most for any player in a game against the Bucks this season.
8. Bogdanovic’s 30 points per game were his highest average against any opponent this season. He shot 12-for-23 from 3-point range and his effective field goal percentage of 68.3% was the 10th best mark among 94 players with at least 25 field goal attempts against the Bucks this season. John Collins had the fourth best mark (72.6%).
9. Giannis Antetokounmpo took 62% of his shots in the restricted area, his fifth highest rate vs. any opponent. He shot 22-for-26 (85%) in the restricted area and 5-for-16 (31%) outside it. His 15 free throw attempts on Jan. 24 were the most for any player in a game against the Hawks this season. Solomon Hill was the Hawks’ defended who matched up with him most (7:35 of matchup time over three games), though Clint Capela wasn’t far behind (5:50 over two games).
10. The Hawks took only 21% of their shots in the restricted area, their lowest rate vs. any opponent.

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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