NBA Finals numbers preview: Key stats that could define Nuggets-Heat

The 2023 NBA Finals are, seemingly, a matchup of offense vs. defense. A team that ranked 10 spots higher on offense in the regular season (the Denver Nuggets) vs. a team that ranked 16 spots higher on defense (the Miami Heat). And for sure, the Nuggets’ end of the floor should be the more interesting one in regard to game-planning.

But, with the Heat showing unprecedented improvement in regard to their 3-point shooting (see below), both of these teams have ranked higher on offense through the first three rounds of the playoffs. It can be a make-or-miss league, and the two best jump-shooting teams in the playoffs are the only two teams left standing.

The Nuggets, leading the postseason in points in the paint per game and built around an all-time great center, should be less reliant on their jumpers in The Finals. The Heat will challenge the Denver defense with non-stop movement and a star that knows how to get to the line. Don’t expect a fast pace, as both of these teams will take their time offensively.

• Complete NBA Finals coverage | Shaun Powell’s Finals preview

Here are some statistical notes to get you ready for The Finals, with links to let you dive in and explore more. Game 1 is Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Denver Nuggets (53-29, 12-3)

First round: Beat Minnesota in five games
West semifinals: Beat Phoenix in six games
West Finals: Beat L.A. Lakers in four games
Pace: 96.3 (9)
OffRtg: 119.7 (1)
DefRtg: 111.7 (8)
NetRtg: +8.0 (1)

• Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

• vs. Miami: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

• Playoffs: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Nuggets efficiency by round

AdjO = OffRtg – opponent’s regular-season DefRtg
AdjD = DefRtg – opponent’s regular-season OffRtg

Nuggets playoff notes – General:

1. Have outscored their opponents by 125 points, the best mark for a Finals team through the first three rounds in the last five years.
2. Only team that hasn’t lost at home (8-0) in the playoffs. No team has ever won more than 10 playoff home games without a loss, with the four 10-0 teams (all champions) being the 1977 Blazers, the ’86 Celtics, the ’87 Lakers and the ’96 Bulls.
3. Lead the playoffs in time of possession at 22.4 minutes per game.
4. Have been at their best in the first quarter (+11.8 points per 100 possessions).
5. Are 10-0 when leading by double-digits, 3-3 when trailing by double-digits, and 7-3 (best in the playoffs) in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.

Nuggets postseason shot profile

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Nuggets playoff notes – Offense:

1. Their 119.7 points scored per 100 possessions are the most efficient offense a team has had through three rounds of the playoffs in the last six years (since the Cavs scored 122.1 through three rounds in 2017).
2. Lead the playoffs in both elbow touches (16.5) and post-ups (12.3) per game.
3. Have averaged 15.8 seconds per possession, the third highest rate in the playoffs, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
4. Rank seventh out of 16 playoff teams in ball movement (304 passes per 24 minutes of possession), but 15th in player movement (9.9 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession), according to Second Spectrum tracking.
5. Have an assist/turnover ratio of 2.27, the second-best mark for a playoff team with at least 10 games played in the last 25 years. The best mark (2.45) belongs to the 2019 Nuggets and the third-best mark (2.22) belongs to the 2021 Nuggets.
6. Rank last with just 34.5 drives per game, but lead the playoffs with 51.5 points in the paint per game and 52.9 points in the paint per 100 possessions. Their 72 points in the paint in Game 4 in Phoenix (a game they lost) are tied for the most for any team in a playoff game in the last 17 years.

Nuggets efficiency and four factors – Offense

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Nuggets playoff notes – Defense:

1. Opponents have taken only 34.1% of their shots, the second lowest opponent rate in the playoffs, from 3-point range. That was 39% in the first round vs. Minnesota and just 31.7% over the last two rounds (Suns and Lakers). Opponents have taken 31% of their 3-pointers, the third highest opponent rate in the playoffs, from the corners.
2. Have grabbed 76.6% of defensive rebounds, the third highest rate in the playoffs and up from 72.7% (11th) in the regular season. That’s the second biggest improvement among the eight teams that have played more than one series.
3. Opponents have averaged just 14.4 seconds per possessions, the second lowest opponent rate in the playoffs, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
4. Rank last in opponent turnover rate (11.9 per 100 possessions), but are seventh in steals per 100 (7.3). 61% of their opponents’ turnovers, the second-highest rate in the playoffs, have been live balls.
5. Have switched 23% of opponent ball-screens, a little below the postseason average, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Have played “blitz” or “show” coverage on 17%, the fifth highest rate.

Nuggets efficiency and four factors – Defense

Nuggets playoff notes – Lineups:

1. The Nuggets’ starting lineup has played 275 total minutes together, third most for any playoff lineup in the last six years. It’s outscored opponents by 9.7 points per 100 possessions, the seventh best mark among 14 lineups that have played at least 75 total minutes in these playoffs. It’s scored 121.7 per 100, the best mark among that group.
2. The Nuggets have outscored their opponents by 130 points in Nikola Jokic’s 583 minutes on the floor. That’s the best cumulative plus-minus in the playoffs, and it’s followed by those of Michael Porter Jr. (+128), Aaron Gordon (+126) and Jamal Murray (+126). No other player has a mark better than +104.
3. The Nuggets have scored 123.1 points per 100 possessions with Jokic on the floor. That’s the best on-court mark among 94 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes in six games or more.
4. Highest on-court NetRtg among 24 Denver two-man combinations that have played at least 100 minutes: Gordon and Jokic (plus-14.0 per 100 possessions). Lowest: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green (minus-13.1 per 100).

Nuggets playoff notes – Individuals:

1. Christian Braun has a usage rate of just 10.1%, fifth lowest among 124 players that have played at least 100 minutes in the playoffs.
2. Bruce Brown has shot 56-for-88 (63.6%) in the paint, the fifth best mark among 44 players with at least 50 paint attempts.
3. Twenty-six percent of Brown’s points have been fast-break points. That’s the third highest rate among 98 players with at least 50 total points in the playoffs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has the sixth highest rate (23%).
4. Caldwell-Pope has been assisted on 90.5% of his buckets, the highest rate among 41 players with at least 50 total field goals. Michael Porter Jr. has the third-highest rate (86.3%).
5. Aaron Gordon has taken 53% (19/36) of his 3-point attempts from the corners, the second-highest rate among 55 players with at least 35 total 3-point attempts.
6. Gordon has defended 50 isolation possessions, second most in the playoffs, according to Synergy tracking. The 0.98 points he’s allowed on those ranks 11th among 16 players who’ve defended at least 20.
7. Jeff Green is the only player who’s played at least 200 minutes (62 total players) and hasn’t had his shot blocked. He still has an effective field goal percentage of just 49.4%, the sixth-worst mark among 84 players with at least 50 field goal attempts.
8. Green has taken 49.1% of his shots from 3-point range, up from 31.7% in the regular season. That’s the third biggest jump among 84 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs.
9. Nikola Jokic has averaged 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game and would be just the second player in NBA history to average a playoff triple-double with more than five games played. The first was Jason Kidd (12 games) in 2007. Jokic has eight triple-doubles in the playoffs, with all other players totaling just three.
10. Jokic has seen the third biggest jump in usage rate from the regular season (26.3% to 30.6%) among 124 players that have played at least 100 playoff minutes. He’s scored or assisted on 54.1 points per game, the highest mark in the last five years (since LeBron James in 2018) for a player who played in more than one playoff series.
11. Jokic leads the playoffs with 4.9 second chance points per game and ranks second (first among players who’ve played more than three games) with 17.9 points in the paint per game.
12. Jokic has shot just 10-for-29 (34.5%) from mid-range, the second-worst mark among 21 players with at least 25 mid-range. But his 27-for-57 (47.4%) from 3-point range is the second-best mark among 34 players with at least 50 attempts from beyond the arc.
13. Jokic has recorded assists on just 3.1% of his drives, the second lowest rate among 45 players with at least 50 total drives in the playoffs.
14. Jamal Murray has scored 27.7 points per game in the playoffs, up from 20 in the regular season. That’s the third biggest jump among 173 players that have played at least four playoff games. He’s also seed the sixth biggest jump in steals per game (from 1.0 to 1.7) among that group.
15. Murray has scored 1.25 points per possession as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, according to Synergy tracking. That’s, by far, the best mark among 20 players with at least 50 ball-handler possessions in the playoffs. He leads the playoffs with 57 pull-up 2-pointers and the 57-for-102 (55.9%) he’s shot on pull-up 2s is the best mark among 33 players who’ve attempted at least 25. He’s has attempted 14 more 2-pointers from 18-feet and out (13-for-34) than any other player in the playoffs.
16. Murray has shot 62-for-67 (92.5%) from the free throw line, the best mark among 19 players with at least 50 attempts.
17. Jokic has been assisted by Murray 48 times, and Murray has been assisted by Jokic 36 times. Those are the most and second most assists from a player to a single teammate in the playoffs. Third and fourth on the list are Jokic to Caldwell-Pope (35) and Jokic to Porter (32).
18. Porter has an effective field goal percentage of 72% in the fourth quarter, the second-best mark among 42 players with at least 25 fourth-quarter field goal attempts. Brown (69.4%) and Murray (65.4%) have the fourth and seventh best marks, respectively.
19. Porter has 10 fast-break 3-pointers, tied for the most in the playoffs. Caldwell-Pope and Murray are tied for fourth with seven each.
20. Porter has averaged eight rebounds per game, up from 5.5 in the regular season. That’s the fourth biggest jump among 173 players that have played at least four playoff games.
    
    

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Miami Heat (44-38, 12-6)

First round: Beat Milwaukee in five games
East semifinals: Beat New York in six games
East finals: Beat Boston in seven games
Pace: 95.8 (11)
OffRtg: 116.1 (5)
DefRtg: 111.5 (6)
NetRtg: +4.6 (2)

• Regular season: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

• vs. Denver: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

• Playoffs: Team stats | Advanced splits | Player stats | Player shooting | Lineups

Heat efficiency by round

AdjO = OffRtg – opponent’s regular-season DefRtg
AdjD = DefRtg – opponent’s regular-season OffRtg

Heat playoff notes – General:

1. Have played four of the eight slowest-paced games of the playoffs (90 possessions per team or fewer), losing three of those four.
2. Have committed 1.4 fewer turnovers per game than their opponents, the second-best differential in the playoffs.
3. Rank third in time of possession at 22.1 minutes per game.
4. Best fourth-quarter team in the playoffs, outscoring their opponents by 16.3 points per 100 possessions in the fourth period.
5. Are 8-1 when leading by double-digits, 6-5 (only team with a winning record in these playoffs) when trailing by double-digits, and 6-3 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.
6. Their three wins in games they trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter are tied for the most for any team in any postseason in the 27 years for which we have play-by-play data.

Heat postseason shot profile

%FGA = Percentage of total field goal attempts

Heat playoff notes – Offense:

1. Have scored 3.7 more points per 100 possessions than they did in the regular season (112.3, 25th), the biggest jump for any playoff team.
2. Have shot 39% from 3-point range, the best mark in the playoffs and up from 34.4% (27th) in the regular season. That’s the biggest jump ever for a team with at least 250 3-point attempts in the playoffs (149 teams total).
3. They have four of the eight games in these playoffs (no other team has more than one) in which a team has shot 50% or better from 3-point range. They had only three such games in the regular season.
4. Rank 10th out of 16 playoff teams in ball movement (296 passes per 24 minutes of possession) and eighth in player movement (10.7 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession), according to Second Spectrum tracking.
5. Have averaged 15.9 seconds per possession, the second-highest rate in the playoffs, according to Second Spectrum tracking. Have taken just 13.1% of their shots in the first six seconds of the shot clock, the lowest rate in the playoffs and down from 15% (fourth lowest) in the regular season. Their effective field goal percentage in the first six seconds (60.3%) ranks second.

Heat efficiency and four factors – Offense

eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
FTA Rate = FTA/FGA
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
OREB% = Percentage of available offensive rebounds obtained

Heat playoff notes – Defense:

1. Are 11-0 when they’ve held their opponent under 115 points per 100 possessions and 1-6 when they haven’t.
2. Rank 15th (of 16) in opponent 2-point percentage (56.5%), but fourth in opponent 3-point percentage (32.5%). Opponents have taken 44.2% of their shots (second lowest opponent rate) in the paint and 45% of their shots (third-highest opponent rate) from 3-point range.
3. Have played 245 possessions of zone, according to Synergy tracking, 178 more than any other team in these playoffs and second most for any team in the last 15 postseasons. The most was the 255 possessions the Heat played in 2020.
4. Lead the playoffs with 1.17 charges drawn per game and rank second with 15.9 deflections per game.

Heat efficiency and four factors – Defense

Heat playoff notes – Lineups:

1. Starting lineup for the last two games of the conference finals — Gabe Vincent, Jimmy Butler, Max Strus, Caleb Martin and Bam Adebayo — has outscored its opponents by 13.8 points per 100 possessions, the fourth best mark among 14 lineups that have played at least 75 minutes. The same group with Kevin Love in Martin’s place has the eighth best mark (plus-6.9 per 100).
2. The Martin lineup has recorded assists on just 46.9% of its field goals, the lowest rate among those 14 lineups. But it ranks second among the 14 in both turnover rate (9.0 per 100 possessions) and opponent turnover rate (15.7 per 100).
3. The Love lineup has grabbed 79.4% of available defensive rebounds, the best mark among those 14 lineups.
4. Highest on-court NetRtg among 26 Miami two-man combinations that have played at least 100 minutes: Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson (plus-19.8 per 100 possessions). Lowest: Lowry and Max Strus (minus-13.3 per 100).
5. The Heat have outscored their opponents by 14.5 points per 100 possessions with Robinson on the floor. That’s the best on-court mark among 62 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes in 10 games or more.

Heat playoff notes – Individuals:

1. Bam Adebayo has taken 83% of his shots in the paint, the highest rate among 47 players with at least 100 total field goal attempts in the playoffs. His 52.2% shooting in the paint ranks 30th among 44 players with at least 50 paint attempts.
2. Adebayo has shot 16-for-56 (28.6%) on pull-up 2-pointers, the worst mark among 33 players who’ve attempted at least 25. Gabe Vincent has the fourth-worst mark (12-for-36 (33.3%).
3. Jimmy Butler‘s 35 steals are 10 more than any other player has in the playoffs. He also leads the playoffs with 58 total deflections.
4. Butler has seen the fourth biggest jump in usage rate from the regular season (24.8% to 29%) among 124 players that have played at least 100 playoff minutes.
5. Butler has a free throw rate of 44.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field, down from 62.5 per 100 in the regular season, but still the second-highest rate among 47 players with at least 100 field goal attempts in the playoffs.
6. Butler is the leading clutch scorer in the playoffs, having scored 39 points (on 11-for-22 shooting) with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.
7. Haywood Highsmith has averaged 2.3 steals per 36 minutes, third most among 123 players who’ve played at least 100 total minutes in the playoffs.
8. Kevin Love has grabbed 28.6% of defensive rebounds while he’s been on the floor, the third-highest rate among 145 players who’ve averaged at least 10 minutes in the playoffs.
9. Kyle Lowry (15-for-29) is one of four players – Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Jamal Murray are the others – that have shot better than 50% on at least 25 mid-range attempts in the playoffs.
10. Lowry has taken 46.3% of his shots from 3-point range, down from 63.9% in the regular season. That’s the biggest drop among 84 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs.
11. Lowry has committed turnovers on 11.9% of his drives, the second-highest rate among 45 players with at least 50 total drives. Butler has the fourth lowest rate (3%).
12. Caleb Martin has an effective field goal percentage of 68.4%, which would be the best mark in NBA playoff history for a player with at least 150 field goal attempts (1,364 total instances).
13. Martin has shot 32-for-61 (52.5) on catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, the best mark among 49 players who’ve attempted at least 25. He’s only 6-for-24 (25%) on pull-up 3s.
14. Duncan Robinson has an effective field goal percentage of 62.9%, the fifth best mark among 47 players with at least 100 field goal attempts in the playoffs.
15. Robinson has taken 71.9% of his shots from 3-point range, the highest rate among 63 players with at least 75 field goal attempts in the playoffs. Love (71.6%) and Max Strus (70.5%) have the second and fourth highest rates, respectively.
16. Robinson has shot 14-for-27 (51.9%) on pull-up 3-pointers, the best mark among 27 players who’ve attempted at least 25.
17. Martin (from 54% to 68.4%), Robinson (from 50.4% to 62.9%) and Strus (from 53.5% to 57.9%) have seen the biggest, third biggest and ninth biggest jumps in effective field goal percentage from the regular season to the playoffs among 84 players with at least 50 playoff field goal attempts.
18. Strus has traveled 4.86 miles per hour on offense, the fastest among 62 players who’ve played at least 200 minutes in the playoffs. Martin (4.85) and Robinson (4.76) have the second and fourth highest rates, respectively.
19. Strus ranks second in the playoffs with six charges drawn. Martin and Vincent are tied (with Jeff Green) for third with four each.
20. Cody Zeller has committed 5.4 fouls per 36 minutes, most among 123 players who’ve played at least 100 playoff minutes.
    
    

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Regular season matchup

Denver won, 2-0

• Dec. 30 @ Denver – Nuggets 124, Heat 119
• Feb. 13 @ Miami – Nuggets 112, Heat 108

Pace: 95.5 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes
Denver OffRtg: 123.6 (3rd vs. Miami)
Miami OffRtg: 118.8 (7th vs. Denver)

Total points scored, season series

Matchup notes:

1. Jeff Green missed the first game, while Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon both missed the second game for Denver.
2. Caleb Martin missed the first game, while Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson both missed the second game for Miami. Both games took place before the Heat signed Kevin Love and Cody Zeller.
3. Both games were within three points in the last three minutes. The biggest lead for either team in either game was the Heat’s 11-point lead in the first quarter of the second game.
4. The Nuggets’ effective field goal percentage of 67.8% was the best mark for any team against the Heat this season.
5. Denver shot 17-for-28 (60.7%) from 3-point range on Dec. 30, their best mark of the season (97 total games) and the second-best mark in franchise history for a game in which they attempted at least 25 3s (802 total games). It was also the best mark for any team against the Heat this season (102 total games) and tied for the second-best mark ever against the Heat with a minimum of 25 attempts (783 total games).
6. The Nuggets’ turnover rate of 17.3 per 100 possessions was their third highest vs. any opponent this season. Their offensive rebounding percentage (22.4%) was their third lowest vs. any opponent.
7. The Heat played 13 total possessions of zone over the two games, according to Synergy tracking. The Nuggets scored 20 points (1.54 per) on those 13 possessions and ranked second in overall zone offense (1.16 points per possession) in the regular season.
8. Nikola Jokic was 3-for-3 on clutch shots and also had three clutch assists over the two games. One of those was to Murray for a go-ahead 3 with less than two minutes left in the February game in Denver. Herro was the Heat’s leading clutch scorer (10 of the Heat’s 18 clutch points over the two games) even though he only played in one of the two.
9. Jimmy Butler had a 17/2 assist-turnover ratio and 5/1 steals-fouls ratio over the two games.
10. Denver was a plus-19 (allowing 109.1 points per 100 possessions) in Jokic’s 70 minutes on the floor and a minus-10 (allowing 71 points on 50 possessions) in his 26 minutes on the bench. But the Denver starting lineup was a minus-10 in its 18.5 minutes in the December game.
11. The Heat’s current starting lineup was a plus-2 in a little less than 15 minutes in the February game.
12. Bam Adebayo was the primary defender on Jokic, who shot 9-for-15 in that matchup and 11-for-14 otherwise. Haywood Highsmith was the primary defender on Jamal Murray, who scored just 14 points in his one game against the Heat.
13. Aaron Gordon was the primary defender on Butler, who took just one shot (and two free throws) in that matchup. He was seemingly more aggressive against Bruce Brown (6-for-10) and Jokic (3-for-9).

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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

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