The Los Angeles Lakers have LeBron James and a reported deal in place to acquire Anthony Davis from the New Orleans Pelicans. In the quest for a 17th championship, two of the best players in the league is a great start.
But, with free agency set to begin at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, there remains a lot of work to be done in regard to the rest of the Lakers’ roster, which will be left pretty barren in the wake of the Davis trade. Here are the details, according to multiple reports…
Lakers receive: Anthony Davis
Pelicans receive: Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, the No. 4 pick (De’Andre Hunter, later sent to Atlanta), the Lakers’ first-round pick in 2021 (top-8 protected), the right to swap picks in 2023, and the Lakers’ first-round pick in 2024 (that New Orleans can defer to 2025).
On July 1, the Lakers will have eight players under contract. Three of those eight will be sent to New Orleans and three of the five remaining — Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones and Mo Wagner — have a total of 709 minutes of NBA experience. That leaves a lot for the Lakers to consider going forward …
Remaining cap space
The Lakers are set to have more cap space before the trade than after due to Davis’ salary being significantly higher than the combined salaries of Ball, Hart, and Ingram. However, should they use up the majority, or all, of this additional cap space by signing free agents before the trade is officially confirmed, they could end up exceeding the salary cap post-trade. To counter this, they would need the salary of the No. 4 pick included in the deal to closely match Davis’ outgoing salary. This would necessitate a 30-day waiting period after Hunter has signed his rookie contract.
They could do it before Hunter is signed if they expanded the deal to include the contracts of Bonga, Jones and Wagner. And they would likely need an additional team (or teams) to take on those contracts.
If they are unable to postpone the trade or locate potential recipients for those contracts, they have the option of proceeding with the trade as planned. However, this would leave them without the necessary cap space (approximately $33 million) to propose a max contract to a free agent who has seven to nine years of experience, such as Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Nikola Vucevic or Kemba Walker.
Of course, when talking about the Lakers’ cap space, we can’t forget that $5 million of it is being taken up (for each of the next three seasons) by the stretched contract of Luol Deng (who they signed in that disastrous summer of 2016). Should they not delay the trade or find takers for those three extra contracts, that $5 million is the difference between the space they need to sign one of the above players to the max and what they’ll actually have (about $28 million if they get Davis to waive his trade kicker, which he may not do anyway).
A new star combo
It seems that James and Davis are a perfect match. James is recognized as one of the greatest playmakers in NBA history, and Davis is highly regarded as one of the league’s top finishers. In the past five years, only three players have managed to shoot over 70 percent on a minimum of 2,000 attempts in the restricted area, and Davis and James are two of them.
Davis has been assisted on about two-thirds of his field goals over his career. James, meanwhile, ranks fourth with 8.8 assists per game over the last three seasons.
Davis is a different type of offensive player compared to James’ usual teammates, as he scores more from inside the paint rather than from the perimeter. In the last three seasons, only 40 percent of James’ assists – ranking him 59th among 106 players with over 500 total assists – have been for shots in the restricted area. Despite this, during these three years, James’ teammates have had a better shooting percentage in the restricted area when he was on the court (64.3 percent) compared to when he was not (61.4 percent).
Last season, Davis scored just 1.02 points per possession as a roll man, according to Synergy play-type tracking. That ranked 19th among 22 players who averaged at least three roll man possessions per game and was down from 1.18 (fourth among players with three per game) in 2017-18.
James ought to assist Davis in reaching his full potential as a roll man. However, the role of a “roll man” includes pick-and-pop jumpers, an area where Davis has seen a decline in his performance. Over the last two seasons, his shooting accuracy from outside the paint has dropped to 35.2 percent, compared to a higher rate of 41.1 percent in the three seasons prior.
He somewhat compensated for that drop by upping his 3-point rate, yet this season, his mid-range shots were still 1.6 times more than his 3-pointers. Even though this was the lowest rate in his career, it was still the seventh highest among 218 players who had at least 200 shots from outside the paint. (Out of those 218 players, only 23 had more mid-range shots than 3-pointers.)
Davis’ effective field goal percentage from outside the paint (40.9 percent) ranked 209th among those 218 players. James’ (48.1 percent) ranked 137th. So, while one is an elite passer and both are elite finishers, they’re not a perfect fit in regard to scoring inside and out.
Shooters needed (and soon)
Wagner may continue as a substitute big, but the Lakers’ roster depth post-trade extends only to Davis, James and Kyle Kuzma. Speaking of Kuzma, his effective field goal percentage for shots outside the paint stands at 44.5 percent – placing him 187th out of the 218 players with a minimum of 200 field goal attempts. While this is an impressive and versatile frontline, the Lakers lack depth and have no backcourt at all. Reggie Bullock, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Rajon Rondo, and Lance Stephenson are all unrestricted free agents, and it doesn’t seem likely that any of them will be returning.
Whether or not the Lakers can get rid of those three smaller contracts, they might be better off spreading their remaining cap space around (rather than using it on a third star). With James and Davis, they need to add as much shooting as possible. In James’ first season in L.A., the Lakers (33.6 percent) ranked last in catch-and-shoot 3-point percentage, with Kuzma having the third-worst mark (31.7 percent) among 101 players with at least 200 attempts.
The good news? Six of the top nine catch-and-shoot 3-point shooters (minimum 100 attempts) from last season are free agents. Additionally, 20 free agents this summer shot 40 percent or better on at least 100 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts. Four of those 20 are Irving, Leonard, Thompson and Kevin Durant, but the Lakers should find some realistic targets among the remaining 16.
| Player | FGM | FGA | FG% | 3PM | 3PA | 3P% | eFG% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Curry | 79 | 167 | 47.3% | 78 | 157 | 49.7% | 70.7% |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 88 | 184 | 47.8% | 86 | 181 | 47.5% | 71.2% |
| Danny Green | 179 | 379 | 47.2% | 172 | 363 | 47.4% | 69.9% |
| Quinn Cook | 62 | 129 | 48.1% | 55 | 118 | 46.6% | 69.4% |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | 142 | 310 | 45.8% | 131 | 292 | 44.9% | 66.9% |
| Darren Collison | 61 | 138 | 44.2% | 51 | 116 | 44.0% | 62.7% |
| Danuel House Jr. | 57 | 133 | 42.9% | 56 | 132 | 42.4% | 63.9% |
| J.J. Redick | 181 | 424 | 42.7% | 151 | 356 | 42.4% | 60.5% |
| Ryan Arcidiacono | 69 | 164 | 42.1% | 68 | 162 | 42.0% | 62.8% |
| Mike Scott | 101 | 247 | 40.9% | 96 | 229 | 41.9% | 60.3% |
| Patrick Beverley | 86 | 211 | 40.8% | 86 | 210 | 41.0% | 61.1% |
| Nik Stauskas | 47 | 116 | 40.5% | 45 | 110 | 40.9% | 59.9% |
| Harrison Barnes | 146 | 366 | 39.9% | 140 | 347 | 40.3% | 59.0% |
| JaMychal Green | 87 | 205 | 42.4% | 64 | 159 | 40.3% | 58.0% |
| Wesley Matthews | 124 | 307 | 40.4% | 118 | 294 | 40.1% | 59.6% |
| Wilson Chandler | 56 | 144 | 38.9% | 56 | 140 | 40.0% | 58.3% |
| List does not include Kyrie Irving (45.4%), Kevin Durant (40.8%), Kawhi Leonard (40.8%) or Klay Thompson (40.5%). |
Another playmaker?
Last year’s strategy of putting playmakers (instead of shooters) around James didn’t work. The 2018-19 Lakers were the lowest ranked offensive team — they ranked 24th at 107.4 points scored per 100 possessions — that James has played for in his 16 seasons. (The 109.0 points per 100 possessions they scored in the 55 games that James played in would have ranked 19th, which would have been the second-lowest that any James team has ranked.)
This doesn’t imply that the Lakers for the next season don’t require playmaking beyond what James, who will be 35 years old in December, can provide. If some of the offensive responsibility is taken off his shoulders, he could potentially channel more energy into defense.
If the Lakers are looking for both shooting and playmaking, the most interesting option would be D’Angelo Russell (whom the Lakers traded to the Brooklyn Nets two years ago). Russell shot 39.4 percent on catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts last season and also had the most assists (563) among free agents.
Russell is a restricted free agent, but if the Nets choose to upgrade to Irving (as has been widely reported) at point guard, they may let Russell walk. And he probably won’t command a maximum starting salary (about $27.3 million for a player with 0-6 years of experience).
Brogdon could offer another dual-threat guard option, however, as a restricted free agent, it might be more challenging to snatch him away from the Milwaukee Bucks. Potential unrestricted options could be Patrick Beverley and Darren Collison.
Still need to get stops, too
Beverley, Brogdon or Collison would help make up for the loss of Ball on defense. The Lakers ranked a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency last season. But they were seventh (106.3 points allowed per 100 possessions) at the time of Ball’s season-ending injury and ranked 22nd (112.4) thereafter. They allowed 102.7 per 100 with James and Ball on the floor together, but 107.9 per 100 with James on the floor without Ball. (He will now team with Jrue Holiday in what may be the league’s best defensive backcourt.)
Davis ranked low in high-volume rim protection rankings, with opponents shooting 63.9 percent at the rim when he was there to protect it. But with his length and athleticism, he should be able to make up for James’ defensive issues more than any guard.
In the previous season, Davis’ average was 1.69 for steals and blocks per personal foul, a decrease from 1.94 in the season before. Despite the decrease, his rate was the highest among players who logged at least 1,000 minutes on the court. He, along with Myles Turner from the Indiana Pacers, was one of only two players to have spent at least 1,000 minutes in play and record more blocks (135) than fouls (132).
The Lakers continue to require perimeter defenders. Regardless of whether they acquire a point guard such as Beverley or Collison, they will still need someone capable of defending against star opponents. Last season, 17 free agents defended the league’s top five wing scorers – James Harden, Paul George, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker and Leonard – for a minimum of 150 total possessions.
- Al-Farouq Aminu
- Trevor Ariza
- Harrison Barnes
- Reggie Bullock
- Jimmy Butler
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
- Kevin Durant
- Dorian Finney-Smith (restricted)
- Danny Green
- Justin Holiday
- Wesley Matthews
- Khris Middleton
- Iman Shumpert
- Garrett Temple
- Klay Thompson
- * Noah Vonleh
- * Thaddeus Young
* Possessions defending Antetokounmpo account for more than 85 percent of their total.
Four individuals – Butler, Durant, Middleton, and Thompson – are players that are likely out of the Lakers’ financial reach. The Lakers’ own free agents include Bullock and Caldwell-Pope. Barnes, Green, and Matthews are also included in the aforementioned catch-and-shoot list.
The trade market?
The Lakers aren’t just restricted to free agency when it comes to completing their roster and using their cap space. They also have the option to make additional trades beyond their deal with New Orleans. However, due to the draft picks and young players they are giving up for Davis, they have limited resources to offer other teams for valuable players.
Obtaining Davis was clearly a significant move towards contention for the Lakers. However, the trade also puts them on a challenging course to assemble a competent supporting team around their two stars.
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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