4 things to monitor heading into Game 3 of 2023 NBA Finals

MIAMI — The NBA Finals has changed cities, and around an hour before midnight Wednesday, it will change momentum.

One team will be up, another down following Game 3 (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), and more adjustments will be necessary for the Miami Heat or the Denver Nuggets. Or both teams, actually. That’s the case in a series that’s tied 1-1, a series that’ll favor the lower-seeded Heat if only because the next two games are in Miami.

So, what can we expect? The Heat are prospering defensively and mainly with a unique zone defense that’s managing to restrict every Nuggets player except Nikola Jokic. It’s safe to say they won’t completely abandon that. Also, the Nuggets will look to turn up the volume on their intensity, which despite the high stakes hasn’t followed them for 48 full minutes.

We should also expect the unexpected because whatever happened in the previous game doesn’t necessarily spill over into the next. Each game traditionally in the Finals has its own personality and flavor because of the constant tweaks in strategy, lineups and minutes. Also, ultimately the best players meet the challenge, even if they previously stumbled a few nights ago.

Here’s who needs to keep eating whatever they’re having for breakfast: Bam Adebayo, Gabe Vincent and Jokic. They’ve been the most consistent, giving the best vibes.

Here’s who needs to roll out the other side of the bed: Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Caleb Martin. It’s time.

Most of all, what the Nuggets and Heat have proven through two games is how this is a make-or-miss league. Really, it comes down to that — shots. Miami missed shots in Game 1 and lost. Miami made 3-pointers in Game 2 and won.

And so … here are four things to monitor in Game 3, in a series that’s tied, in a series that will generate plenty of sizzle if — if — the Heat were to win and take a lead in the Finals:

1. Plead the fourth

The 12-minute stretch to watch will be all 12 in the fourth quarter. Whoever conquers that quarter will likely claim the game. And in the case of the Nuggets, the fourth quarters in this series have completely escaped them.

Yes: The series is tied but the Heat are leading the fourth quarter, 2-0.

“If you really want to simplify the first two games, in the first three quarters we have dominated both games,” Nuggets coach Michael Malone said. “The Miami Heat are dominating the fourth quarter. They’re averaging 33 points, shooting 60% from the field and over 50% on 3s. We’re up eight points going into the fourth quarter of Game 2, up 21 going into the fourth of Game 1.”

The Nuggets were fortunate they built momentum and a decent lead in Game 1. Otherwise, they’d be in trouble. That’s because the Heat rallied but fell short in that game, then overwhelmed Denver in the fourth quarter of Game 2. This speaks to the Heat’s resilience and composure in the moment of truth, and also how they take the lead of their best player, Jimmy Butler — one of the NBA’s more reliable fourth-quarter players.

“I think we just have the habits built for it,” Vincent said. “We have had a number of close games this season. Probably too many than we would have liked, but they helped us prepare for moments like that, when we need to adjust on the fly or put in a wrinkle, and it’s in a pressure situation. The more reps you have with that, the less quote, unquote, pressure you feel, I think.”

It’s up to the Nuggets to find a fourth-quarter formula that duplicates the energy they have for most of the game to that point, and up to the Heat to use the home crowd energy to continue their dominance.

2. When will the J in MPJ mean jumper?

The most unusual development, aside from the lopsided fourth quarters, is how Porter’s jumper has vanished. Specifically, his shooting from deep. And actually, to suggest it has vanished is to imply that shot was here in the first place, when in fact, it hasn’t shown up yet in the Finals yet.

We say “yet” because he deserves that much respect, knowing that a complete reversal can happen Wednesday. Just ask Max Strus, who went 0-for-10 in Game 1, then opened Game 2 with a flurry of jumpers. Also, Porter is fully capable of ending his slump. After all, he shot 41.4% on 3-pointers this season, which is essentially his career average.

That said, the Nuggets can’t afford any prolonged slump by Porter because the team is dependent on him to make that shot in transition and especially the halfcourt, where the playoffs are mainly confined. He hasn’t made the Heat pay for doubling on Jokic or for offering help on Jamal Murray when Murray breaks down the defense and leaves Porter open.

Also — and this is important — Miami isn’t leaving him open very often. The Heat defense is sticking Adebayo man-to-man with Jokic without help and, therefore, Porter is mostly taking contested shots.

By keeping a man assigned to Porter at all times, Miami is flushing out his greatest weakness — an inability to dribble. Porter primarily thrives as a spot-up shooter. He doesn’t create much for himself as he lacks the lateral quickness and handles to create space from his defender. That’s why he hasn’t been able to exploit the size difference over his primary defenders in Games 1 and 2, which were Vincent and Strus, respectively.

It’s a fantastic strategy by the Heat to limit Porter’s clean looks, and that’s why he’s struggling.

“I just have to play with pace and energy, and I’ll fall into some easy buckets off of cuts, out of transition,” Porter said. “I’m not going to keep missing that many 3s. I have to stay confident in myself. But I can definitely mix in some driving, close-outs, get to the (basket) and get out in transition.”

3. Is the point guard battle a draw?

With the season he just had and the fact that he’s in his prime, Murray was a prohibitive advantage for Denver at point guard when this series began. But can anyone really tell the difference in this matchup two games later?

You could even make a case for the two-headed Heat tandem of Kyle Lowry and Vincent being slightly ahead. And that in itself is a resounding victory for the Heat.

Murray’s premier production has been restricted to a bombastic first half in Game 1, when he scored 18 points and jump-started the Nuggets’ insurmountable lead. Over the next six quarters, he had 26 points, none particularly meaningful for the Nuggets or damaging to Miami.

Meanwhile, Vincent has probably been Miami’s best player in the series after Adebayo, and it’s a close call. His deep shooting and quickness are causing problems for the Nuggets. Whenever something good happened to Miami, Vincent was in the mix. He’s shooting 57.7% overall and 56.3% on 3-pointers in this series, racking up 21 points per game. Oh, and he’s committed just two turnovers in 70 minutes.

Vincent assumed the starting point guard spot from Lowry months ago and the veteran did not pout. Energized by the challenge of the new role and carrying himself like a team player, Lowry stepped forward in spurts off the bench against Denver and served as a low-key asset in the Game 2 win. He’s shooting 55.6% from deep in the series.

“It was a relatively easy decision to bring him off the bench because we had to shut him down for five weeks, and when he came back, he had a minutes restriction,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “The first game back I played him 36 minutes, so the head coach got yelled at. Kyle and I met, and we were both laughing. We needed to protect each other and the only way to do that was by bringing him off the bench. There was really only a month left in the season. We stayed with it, and I think he has embraced that.”

4. Miami is the pace setter

If slow and steady wins the race, then they’ll be popping bottles in Miami pretty soon. There’s a clear winner when it comes to pace of play so far, and that’s Miami, which is managing to spread sand on the court, pump the breaks on the Nuggets and ensure that this series is played at Heat Speed (so to speak).

This has come at the expense of the Nuggets, who’d rather push the tempo and attack in transition. And this is why the scores of the two games have been so low, with the Nuggets averaging just 106 points. That’s 10 below their playoff average entering the Finals.

This series has confirmed how the postseason and especially the NBA Finals is played. After a regular season where all sorts of breezy scoring records were established, where teams got buckets with abandon it wasn’t unusual for multiple players to drop 30 points or more in the same game, championship basketball is played in the halfcourt.

While the Nuggets aren’t a bad halfcourt team, the pace is where they’re having their biggest issues, especially with the Heat’s defensive strategy.

“We want to play fast, they want to play slow,” Malone said. “We’re playing way too slow which is forcing a lot of late (shot) clock situations for us.”

* * *

Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.

The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery.