Catch Jabari Smith Jr. (left) and Paolo Banchero on NBA League Pass tonight as the Rockets visit the Magic to open the 2023-24 season.
After a great opening-night doubleheader to get 2023-24 underway, Wednesday marks the official start of League Pass Season. While there are two good games on ESPN with Victor Wembanyama’s debut set for 9:30 ET, the 10 games on NBA League Pass include debuts for Chet Holmgren (the No. 2 pick last year), Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller, along with the returns of Zion Williamson and Ben Simmons.
To celebrate, we’re highlighting five players to keep a close eye on as you fire up League Pass over the next six months. Yes, every player — including Stephen Curry and LeBron James — will have more than half of their games on League Pass. But this list is reserved for players on the 10 teams that have fewer than 10 national TV appearances (including those on NBA TV). Those teams are Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, Orlando, Portland, Toronto, Utah and Washington.
We’re also going to skip over guys featured on our All-League Pass Team a year ago and a couple of key acquisitions — Bruce Brown and John Collins — that were highlighted in our preseason Film Study series.
1. Future top-10 player? — Paolo Banchero
Breaking news: Size matters in basketball.
Banchero is a big dude, 6-foot-10 and 250 pounds. And he’s big dude with skills.
There are not many guys that big/heavy who play pick and roll as the ball-handler. Most of the ones that do (guys named Giannis Antetokounmpo, James and Nikola Jokic) are multiple-time Kia MVPs.
Banchero has a tight handle, where he can shake the Kia Defensive Player of the Year out of his shoes…
And he can finish with strength or finesse…
With his size, Banchero can see the floor well from the perimeter, from the post, or on the move, with the savvy to look off a defender in mid-air.
Banchero was a near-unanimous pick for Kia Rookie of the Year, receiving 98 of 100 first-place votes. And he should be better in his second season with a year of experience and a summer of work. That potential, along with further development from another 6-10 forward with skills (Franz Wagner), has the Magic a popular pick to make a leap this season.
They’ll get things started by hosting the Rockets on Wednesday (7 ET), then hitting the road for a four-game trip that begins in Portland on Friday (10 ET).
2. Professional scorer — Anfernee Simons
With Damian Lillard in Milwaukee, the Portland Trail Blazers can hand the keys of their offense to Henderson. But they don’t need Henderson to carry a huge load, because they already have a 24-year-old who averaged 21.1 points per game last season, including 27.9 ppg in the 11 games he played without Lillard.
Simons is a bucket-getter with a lot in his bag. He can pull up from deep if he’s given space (35.5% on pull-up 3-pointers last season). While he doesn’t shoot a lot in the paint, his finishing has improved over the last few years.
He’s unafraid to attack a rim protector. He’ll keep defenders off balance with wrong-foot takeoffs and the occasional left-hand finish…
In the preseason, Simons scored 32.6 points per 36 minutes, sixth most among players who played at least 50 total minutes.
He could have an elite defender in front of him when the Blazers open their season in L.A., facing the Clippers on Wednesday (10:30 ET). They’ll come home to host the Magic on Friday (10 ET) before heading out on a three-game trip.
3. Defensive menace — Alex Caruso
If defensive energy is your thing, Caruso is your guy.
Here’s a possession from a Bulls game against the Clippers last season. With Patrick Williams guarding Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell (defended by DeMar DeRozan) comes up to set a screen. Caruso then calls DeRozan off, pre-switching onto Powell, so he can be the guy who switches onto Leonard…
Leonard backs Caruso down and tries to get to his step-back, only to have Caruso strip him on the way up…
Leonard wins a brief tug of war, because he does not lose competitions of strength. But Caruso is able to contest another short, step-back jumper. And when Ivica Zubac appears to have the rebound, Caruso makes one more effort to tip the ball to a teammate…
Last season, Caruso averaged 5.2 deflections per 36 minutes, most among 263 players who played at least 1,000 minutes. And the Bulls, who ranked fifth defensively overall, allowed 6.0 fewer points per 100 possessions with him on the floor (106.5) than they did with him off the floor (112.5).
Caruso will likely be asked to guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander when the Bulls open their season against Oklahoma City on Wednesday (8 ET). After hosting Toronto on Friday, they’ll head out on a three-game trip.
4. Hoping for a second-year breakout — Jabari Smith Jr.
The No. 3 pick in the 2022 Draft received just one All-Rookie first team vote after averaging 12.8 ppg and 7.2 rpg last season. For a 6-foot-11 big man, Smith was not a very efficient scorer. His true shooting percentage of 51.4% ranked 172nd among 180 players (11th among 12 rookies) with at least 500 field goal attempts last season.
Two things need to happen with Smith on offense…
- He needs to get more shots close to the basket. Last season, he took just 37% of his shots in the paint, with that rate landing right between those of CJ McCollum and Monte Morris, two small guards.
- He needs to shoot better from the outside, because 37.7% from mid-range and 30.7% from 3-point range isn’t good enough if you’re mostly a jump-shooter.
There’s a lot more hope for the latter to occur. Smith has a super-smooth mid-range jumper and his 3-point stroke looked stronger in the preseason. But only 18 (35%) of his 51 preseason shots came in the paint. He plays most of his minutes alongside Alperen Sengun, who’s the Rockets’ primary screen-setter and roll man, putting Smith in the role of floor-spacer. Sengun set 48 ball-screens per 100 possessions last season, while Smith set only 14 per 100.
Smith is also a little too eager to shoot from the outside, and should probably seek better shots instead of settling for step-back, mid-range jumpers with 18 seconds left on the shot clock…
Looking to attack more would be preferable…
The Rockets could be a much-improved team this season, and not just because they added some vets and changed their coach. Their young guys can get a lot better, with Smith maybe having the most potential when it comes to both ends of the floor.
The Rockets begin their season with games against two more teams with intriguing youth. They’ll visit the Magic on Wednesday (7 ET) and the Spurs on Friday (8 ET).
5. The All-Star — Lauri Markkanen
Markkanen had his breakout last season, earning the Kia Most Improved Player award with huge leaps in both per-game and per-36-minute numbers as he moved from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Utah Jazz.
He scored his 25.6 points per game efficiently and in a variety of ways. He doesn’t handle like Banchero, but few players (and maybe none that are seven feet tall) are better at moving without the ball.
Markkanen is a willing screener, in part because he knows his own screens can get himself open…
Markkanen quickly flaring to the perimeter after setting a screen is a go-to action for the Jazz. And if he’s not open on the catch, the 26-year-old can attack with size and strength…
Markkanen saw a bigger jump (from 2021-22 to ’22-23) in his effective field goal percentage from outside the paint than he did in the paint. But his paint shots were still worth more and he saw a huge jump in the percentage of his shots that came in the paint, from 40% in his one season with the Cavs to 49% last season. The Fin is a finisher.
The Jazz’s first five games are against each of the top-five seeds from the Western Conference last season. First up are home games against the Kings on Wednesday (9 ET) and Clippers on Friday (9:30 ET).
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John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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