Finals Alterations: 3 potential adjustments heading into Game 3

After Denver took Game 1, it was Miami that had to adjust and respond in Game 2, and it did just that.

By adding Kevin Love into the starting lineup, the Heat took away the offensive burst Aaron Gordon provided in Game 1 against smaller defender. By making Jimmy Butler the primary defender on Jamal Murray, the Heat also limited Murray’s offense and thus forced Nikola Jokic to focus more on scoring than creating. The result was a 111-108 Heat win to send the NBA Finals to Miami tied at 1-1. Which team will make the best adjustments to break the tie when the Finals resume Wednesday night (8:30 ET, ABC)?

1. Nuggets can’t lose Heat’s shooters

No team has had a better 3-point shooting glow up in the 2023 playoffs than the Heat, who went from being 27th ranked in the regular season (34.4%) to the best 3-point shooting team in the playoffs (39.2%).

After struggling from beyond the arc in the first three quarters of Game 1 (7-of-27, 25.9%), the Heat caught fire from 3-point range, shooting 23-of-47 (48.9%) over the last five quarters of play.

Miami’s early struggles in Game 1 were more about missing open shots than it was about Denver’s great perimeter defense. In Game 1, the Heat generated 30 3-point attempts that were classified as either open (closest defender 4-6 feet away from the shooter) or wide open (closest defender 6+ feet away from the shooter). Miami shot 6-of-14 on open looks and 5-of-16 on wide-open looks for a combined 11-of-30 (36.7%) on uncontested 3-pointers.

Fast forward to Game 2 and the Heat once again attempted 30 uncontested 3s, but this time the shots fell like they have for this entire postseason run. Miami shot 11-of-20 on open looks and 5-of-10 on wide-open looks for a combined 16-of-30 (53.3%) on uncontested 3-pointers in a game decided by just three points.

Miami Shooting vs. Closest Defender (Shots outside 10 feet only)

Through the first two games of the Finals, 73.4% of Miami’s shot attempts from beyond 10 feet have been either open or wide open, which matches the frequency of open looks that the Heat saw in their first-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks. In that series, the Heat posted a 58.7 effective field goal percentage on those open/wide-open looks. So far against Denver, the Heat have posted a 62.1 eFG%.

Conversely, no team has held the Heat to a lower shooting percentage on contested shots beyond 10 feet than the Nuggets (22.7 eFG%). But that percentage only applies to 14 total shot attempts from the first two games combined.

Of course, Denver’s strategy was not to concede so many open 3-pointers. Instead, it was more about poor defensive execution — particularly the confusion on when to switch or not switch on side pick-and-roll — as Miami got a number of wide-open looks (because two Nuggets defender stayed on the ball while a shooter flared out and was open). Denver coach Michael Malone called numerous timeouts in frustration about the lack of execution, but the message did not translate to the court.

The Nuggets may have to decide to switch everything on the perimeter outside of high post screens from the player Jokic is defending (most frequently Adebayo). The rest of the Nuggets defenders — Murray, Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, Christian Braun, and Jeff Green — must communicate and properly execute all switches to keep Heat players from getting shooting-drill level looks in a Finals game.

2. Make life easier for Murray

A key adjustment from Miami from Game 1 to Game 2 was making Butler the primary defender on Murray after Murray scored 26 points in Game 1.

Murray’s Game 1 Matchups

• Gabe Vincent: 10 points, 2 assists, 5-for-8 FG, 0-for-1 (on 3-pointers) in 4:55 of matchup time
• Haywood Highsmith: 5 points, 4 assists, 2-4 FG, 1-2 (3pt FG) in 3:38
• Caleb Martin: 5 points, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 2-5 FG, 0-2 (3pt FG) in 3:25
• Jimmy Butler: 0 points, 1 assist, 0-2 FG, 0-1 (3pt FG) in 1:29
• Bam Adebayo: 7 points, 2 assists, 3-4 FG, 1-1 (3pt FG)

Butler and Martin were the two best defenders on Murray in Game 1, but guarded him for just 4:54 minutes combined. In Game 2, Butler and Martin combined to guard Murray for 9:22 (63.3%) of Murray’s offensive matchup time.

Murray’s Game 2 Matchups

• Jimmy Butler: 8 points, 4 assists, 3-6 FG, 1-2 (3pt FG), 1 turnover in 6:39
• Caleb Martin: 0 points, 4 assists, 0-3 FG, 0-2 (3pt FG), 1 block in 2:43
• Gabe Vincent: 0 points, 0 assists, 1 turnover in 1:29
• Bam Adebayo: 4 points 3 assists, 2-3 FG, 0-1 (3pt FG) in 1:16

While Murray was still efficient in his shooting percentages against Butler, that Murray only attempted six shots in nearly seven minutes of offensive time is key. And when Butler wasn’t on Murray, Martin held him scoreless in just under three minutes of matchup time.

With Murray dealing with Butler and Martin, the onus fell to Jokic to carry more of the offense — something he’s  clearly capable of — but the numbers have proven leads to less success for the Nuggets: Denver is 0-3 in the 2023 playoffs when Jokic scores 40 or more points.

Denver benefits most when Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are produce offensively.

The Nuggets are at their best when Jokic and Murray share the scoring load as they are 22-8 when both score 20 in the same game and 14-2 when both score 25 or more (as they did in Game 1 of the Finals).

The defensive attention on Murray — he received 10 Heat double teams in Game 2 after only seeing two in Game 1 — also disrupted Denver’s two-man game between Jokic and Murray. In Game 1, Murray passed to Jokic 46 times and received a pass from Jokic 40 times. In Game 2, those numbers dropped to 23 and 27, respectively.

3. Less live-ball turnovers for Heat

The Heat’s defensive adjustment on Murray kept him scoreless for the first 14 minutes of Game 2. He missed his first three shots: a fadeaway jumper from 17 feet against Butler, a pull-up jumper in transition against Strus and a step-back 3-pointer from 31 feet against Martin.

Murray’s first two buckets of the game did not come against Miami’s set defense, but rather in transition off a pair of steals. The first started with a steal by Brown, with Gordon recovering the loose ball and finding a streaking Braun, who dropped it off to Murray for an open corner 3-pointer that splashed with 9:57 left in the first half. The second came off a bad pass from Kyle Lowry, that was deflected by Adebayo and came out beyond the 3-point line, which Murray recovered against Strus, then sprinted down the court for a running dunk and a foul that put the Nuggets up by 10 points.

Both of these plays came during Denver’s 40-14 run that spanned nearly a full quarter of play (from 4:56 remaining in the first quarter to 5:02 remaining in the second quarter) that was fueled by Miami’s mistakes. The Nuggets took advantage of six Miami turnovers — including three live-ball turnovers that directly led to eight points, the six by Murray and two Green free throws — to get out in transition and score easy baskets.

Denver scored 23 points on Miami’s 11 turnovers in Game 2, its second straight game with the points off turnovers advantage. Entering the Finals, the Heat led the playoffs in points off turnovers (19.3 per game) while Denver ranked last at 13.7 ppg. Through two games, Denver has flipped that script with an 18-14 points per game edge.

By limiting their turnovers — especially the live-ball variety — the Heat will be able to set their defense and not have to worry about getting matched up properly in transition. It also allows the Heat to switch up their defense between man-to-man and zone that has been effective all postseason, including the Finals.