Week 4 NFL picks: Can Titans top Dolphins? Will Lions hand Seahawks their first loss?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2024 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their records through Thursday’s game and the rest of their Week 4 picks below.

NOTES:

1. The lines provided by DraftKings are current as of noon ET on Thursday, Sept. 26 unless otherwise noted below.
2. * — Pick flipped after publishing.
3. ** — Final score prediction changed after publishing.

MONDAY, SEPT. 30

Why Gennaro picked the Titans: Last week in this exercise, I “solo YOLO” picked Tennessee over Green Bay. Part of my rationale for straying from the pack: Will Levis couldn’t possibly commit a THIRD soul-crushing turnover in as many weeks.

Welp, Mr. Mayonnaise-In-My-Coffee is full of surprises.

In the wake of two belly-flopping brain farts, Levis stayed on his feet this time around to provide a more conventional snafu, telegraphing a pass that veteran corner Jaire Alexander effortlessly picked and returned for a touchdown in the Packers’ 30-14 win.

Dare I tempt fate once more?? You betcha!!

Am I a masochist? Sure. Nonetheless, thinking about the quarterbacking matchup in this game, what’s behind Door No. 2? At publishing, we don’t know who’ll be starting under center for the Dolphins, but we do know it won’t be Tua Tagovailoa. Currently on injured reserve after suffering his third documented concussion in the NFL, Tagovailoa’s standing in the league’s QB pecking order has long been a topic of debate. One thing is undeniable, though: In Mike McDaniel’s offensive orchestra, Tua is the best conductor we’ve seen — and it’s not even close. In six games without the QB1 during the McDaniel era, the Dolphins are 1-5, averaging just 16.5 points per contest.

So I ride with Levis. Again. When’s the last time Tennessee won a game with him at the helm? Oh, that’s right — on a Monday night in Miami.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: On Saturday, Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel announced that Tyler Huntley will get the start at quarterback against the Titans with Skylar Thompson nursing a rib injury.

Why Tom picked the Lions: The Lions have not yet taken on a defense quite like Seattle’s, whose opponents have been held to a league-low 3.9 yards per play so far, managing just three total touchdowns. Mike Macdonald’s crew has been especially suffocating against the pass, allowing a passer rating of 67.0 (second-lowest in the NFL) and 4.7 yards per throw (lowest), though less stingy against the run, giving up 4.4 yards per carry (14th-lowest). So Jared Goff and Co. are in for a test — but I think the bigger hurdle is facing the Seahawks, who haven’t played a team as imposing as Detroit on either side of the ball. Between Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, the Lions can exploit Seattle on the ground, especially if Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II are out. Aidan Hutchinson, meanwhile, figures to make Geno Smith much more uncomfortable than he was in last week’s romp over Miami. Detroit goes into its Week 5 bye with a second straight conference win.

ALREADY COMPLETED

Why Gennaro picked the Saints: The Saints’ new-look offense owned the first two weeks of this season, producing the kind of fireworks New Orleans hadn’t seen since the salad days of Sean Payton/Drew Brees. Alvin Kamara and Derek Carr rightfully got their flowers, but the real story was the surprising dominance of a much-maligned offensive line suddenly reborn in Klint Kubiak’s scheme.

Then Pro Bowl center Erik McCoy suffered a groin injury on the fourth play of last Sunday’s bout against Philadelphia. Without this keystone, the entire offensive structure collapsed under the pressure of Vic Fangio’s savvy bear fronts. The Saints managed just 219 yards of offense in the 15-12 loss, with Eagles DT Jalen Carter absolutely wrecking the game.

So, with McCoy hitting IR, can Kubiak’s attack overcome a compromised offensive line? Perhaps the better question for this particular Sunday: Can Atlanta’s defense exploit a compromised offensive line? With all due respect to grizzled DT Grady Jarrett, the 2024 Falcons don’t have a Jalen Carter. And despite the August addition of Matthew Judon, this D has the lowest pressure rate in the league, per Next Gen Stats. Not to mention, the Falcons have injury issues of their own on the O-line. And I’m more confident in this Saints defense taking advantage of a flimsy front.

Why Dan picked the Bengals: I didn’t expect to see better vibes around the Panthers than the Bengals come Week 4 of this season, but that’s where we’re at. At 0-3, Cincinnati is desperate and looking for the kind of slide-stopping victory Carolina earned last week. The one bit of relief coming for a Bengals defense that was completely overmatched against the Commanders on Monday night is Andy Dalton. Yes, I enjoyed the Red Rifle’s Week 3 revival as much as the next guy, but he is not anywhere close to the dynamic dual threat that the Bengals’ Week 3 torturer, Jayden Daniels, is right now. So, DC Lou Anarumo has to find someone who can help Trey Hendrickson — who has accounted for league-high 35.1 percent of the team’s pressures in 2024, per Next Gen Stats — rush the passer and hope that his defensive backs stop getting torched over the top for back-breaking chunk gains. I don’t believe the Cincinnati D is as bad as it looked last time out, so I’m once again riding with Joe Burrow, who is performing at a high level even with so many things, including his offensive line, crumbling around him.

Why Tom picked the Rams: Last week, the Bears scored multiple offensive touchdowns in the same game for the first time in the Caleb Williams era. It is probably not a coincidence that Williams faced the lowest QB pressure rate in that contest (25%, per Next Gen Stats) of his career. The Rams might rank as the NFL’s worst team in yards allowed, but one thing they can do is get after the passer, posting a pressure rate of 38.9 percent (seventh-best). That’s closer to what Williams faced in Weeks 1 and 2 (43.2% pressure rate), when he averaged 4.0 yards per attempt and threw zero TD passes against two picks. Presuming L.A.’s pass rush wrecks another day for the rookie, where will the points come from for Chicago? Barring a mind-body swap between Matthew Stafford and Will Levis, I’m not ready to bank on the defense saving the Bears, not against a Rams offense that has turned the ball over just twice so far and managed to remain functional without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp.

Why Brooke picked the Vikings: This NFC North tilt might be the most fascinating game of the week, with both teams oozing confidence. Jordan Love could make his return after missing the last two contests — both Green Bay wins with Malik Willis under center, which Matt LaFleur deserves a lot of credit for. Standing in the way of three straight wins: Brian Flores and a defense that ranks in the top three in many categories, including points allowed, rush yards yieled, sacks, QB pressures and takeaways. I’m interested to see what Green Bay’s offense — regardless of who is under center — looks like against a defense of this level. Sam Darnold is finding his targets with accuracy and clicking with superstar receiver Justin Jefferson. (Darnold’s 14-of-21 for 273 yards and three touchdowns when targeting JJ.) However, Jaire Alexander and the Packers D, which is averaging three takeaways per game in 2024, could make life tough for Darnold if he slips back into old habits.

As you can probably tell, I am torn here. But I keep coming back to one thing: The Packers’ two victories have come against the Colts and Titans, a pair of flawed teams trying to find their way. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell’s group just took down San Francisco and Houston — two true contenders — in back-to-back weeks. I am going to die on the purple hill until they show me they aren’t the NFC’s best.

P.S. Aaron Jones penned a heartfelt letter this week to Green Bay fans, but make no mistake: He’d love nothing more than to leave Lambeau with a win for the rival Vikings, whom he recently called “a special team.” It feels like Jones will score in this one, and yep, he’s “definitely leaping.” I’m here for it.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Packers QB Jordan Love (knee) is expected to return to the lineup for Sunday’s game against the Vikings, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported Saturday.

Why Ali picked the Texans: After being on the losing end of the two most-lopsided games of Week 3, the Texans and Jags both need to get right — and fast. Despite the 2-1 record, Houston’s offense has disappointed over the past two weeks (against two of the league’s stingier defenses, to be fair), combining for 100 fewer rushing yards and three fewer points than they had in their opener in Indy. Penalties have been absolutely crushing this group, resulting in way too many drive-stalling third-and-long attempts (second-most in NFL). But at least Houston’s atop the division. … The winless Jags have little to hang their hat on right now. They’ve yet to score more than 17 points in a game this season, with Trevor Lawrence posting the third-worst CPOE (-8.9%) and taking the fifth-most sacks of any passer (tied with C.J. Stroud, as it happens). Christian Kirk‘s reemergence in the passing game is the one thing the unit has going for it — that and perhaps the urgency that comes with being 0-3. But I don’t think either will be enough to lead Jacksonville to a win in Houston.

Why Ali picked the Steelers: On Sunday, the Steelers offense is going to run the ball, maintain possession, take a few select shots down field and be comfortable punting on fourth-and-short (even when the analytics might advise otherwise). Defensively, they’re going to control the line of scrimmage, eliminate the big play and use four-man pressure to force Anthony Richardson into quick, unwise decisions. We know this is their plan. They know we know. They do not care. Against a Colts defense that had given up 474 total yards on the ground prior to an advantageous Week 3 meeting with the anemic Bears rushing attack (if you can even call it that), the Steelers should be able to play their brand of ball: pick up just enough first downs and points to keep the defense rested (it’ll need to be, with Alex Highsmith out) and playing with the lead. If Justin Fields continues to take care of the football, Pittsburgh moves to 4-0 for the second time during Mike Tomlin’s tenure.

Why Dan picked the Jets: Aaron Rodgers looked a lot like a quarterback in his prime last Thursday night, and giving him the longest average time to throw (2.59 seconds) of his brief Jets career helped in that regard. It could be a different story on Sunday, when the team with the league’s highest blitz rate (50%) and third-highest QB pressure rate (44.8%) visits the Jets, who are down their starting right tackle. All eyes will be on Morgan Moses‘ replacement at the position, Olu Fashanu. If the first-round pick can hold up to everything DC Vance Joseph throws at him, New York could open the season at 3-1 for the first time since 2015. But that Denver heat pressured Baker Mayfield on nearly half of his dropbacks last week, resulting in seven sacks. The Jets can’t have a repeat of that, and they might not be able to afford another clean outing from Bo Nix. The Broncos looked quite frisky in the rookie QB’s first game without turning the ball over. That said, I can’t overlook the fact that Gang Green is one of the two teams with a higher QB pressure rate than Denver (45.6%) while blitzing about half as often (27.2%).

Why Tom picked the Eagles: As temperamental and finicky as the 2024 Eagles have seemed at times, they showed the ability to dominate two meat-and-potatoes aspects of the sport in their win over the Saints: rushing the passer from the interior and running the football. Even if DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson all miss this one, Jalen Hurts will have Dallas Goedert to throw to. More importantly, he’ll be able to hand off to Saquon Barkley, who should have a decent shot to hit his per-game rushing average of 117 yards against the NFL’s 25th-ranked run defense (although getting Vita Vea back would help Tampa slow him down a little). I will never totally discount Baker Mayfield, but after watching Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis get in Derek Carr‘s face last week, it’s too easy to picture them pressuring the Bucs passer into drive-killing mistakes, even if Luke Goedeke returns.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: The Eagles listed Smith as out on Friday’s injury report; Brown and Johnson were listed as questionable. On Saturday, the team downgraded Brown to out. Vea and Goedeke were listed as questionable on the Bucs’ injury report.

Why Tom picked the Commanders: No one wants to be a prisoner of the moment — but in the case of this blurb, lock me up and throw away the key, baby! Actually, the process behind my decision was more nuanced (or tortured?) than that. Immediately following Jayden Daniels‘ electrifying performance on Monday, I was ready to roll with the Commanders. But after thinking about the likelihood that a rookie QB could pull off a second consecutive road upset on a short week, I was set to make the sober-minded switch to Arizona. Then I thought about it more, and I was tempted back to the fun side by the Cardinals’ difficulty stopping the other dual-threat QB they’ve faced so far this season: Josh Allen, who scored twice on the ground in Week 1. I don’t think Washington can slow Kyler Murray, but if Daniels can emulate Allen’s previous success, this could become a sprint for points. And in that case, I might as well make the reasoned, rational prediction that Daniels will follow up his Week 3 jaw-dropper with another high-flying win.

Why Brooke picked the 49ers: The Patriots come into the Bay Area having totaled just 139 yards in a lopsided defeat on Thursday Night Football, while the 49ers blew a two-score, fourth-quarter lead to the Rams and have been absolutely decimated by injuries. Yet, even without several studs on offense, San Francisco still boasts a top-tier unit, averaging 24.3 points (T-ninth in the NFL) and 407.3 total yards (third) per game, thanks to Brock Purdy‘s impressive start and Jauan Jennings and Jordan Mason stepping up. This also poses as a timely get-right game — the Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots rank dead last in total and pass offense — for a 49ers defense that has taken a sizable step back in 2024 after switching coordinators (Nick Sorensen replaced Steve Wilks). A year after ranking third in points per game allowed and seventh in yards per play allowed, the 49ers sit 21st and 30th in those categories through three games. Even without Pro Bowl DT Javon Hargrave, who was lost to a torn triceps, I expect Fred Warner and Co. to lock in and take care of business in their return home.

Why Brooke picked the Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert often presents one of the most exhilarating games of the week. Unfortunately, the Chargers QB is dealing with an ankle injury that led to an early exit last week and has his status for Sunday up in the air. He (or Taylor Heinicke) will also be without both starting offensive tackles (Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater), likely leading Jim Harbaugh’s team to being even more one-dimensional with the run game. Steve Spagnuolo, whose defense is so-so statistically but has made timely plays over the first three games, has to be licking his chops. Not having Derwin James (suspended) and potentially Joey Bosa (hip) also doesn’t bode well for Los Angeles against a Chiefs team that is 3-0 but has yet to play even close to its potential. This will be Mahomes’ 100th career start, and despite already owning basically all the NFL records in a player’s first 100 games, it looks like this is shaping up to be a memorable game for the league’s best player.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: Chargers QB Justin Herbert (ankle) is expected to start against the Chiefs barring a pregame setback, NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport, Tom Pelissero and Mike Garafolo reported Saturday.

Why Gennaro picked the Browns: In a matchup of underwhelming offenses, the major selling point would presumably be two of the most disruptive defenders in football: Cleveland’s Myles Garrett and Las Vegas’ Maxx Crosby. Unfortunately, both are hurting. Garrett has been hobbling around on balky feet, and Wednesday’s injury report added two more leg parts (Achilles, thigh) to his pain stew. Meanwhile, Crosby is dealing with the dreaded high ankle sprain. Both edge menaces are hell-bent on playing through their ailments. In fact, following last week’s disappointing loss to the previously winless Panthers, Crosby put it bluntly to reporters: “If I’m 100 percent or 50 percent, it doesn’t affect if I’m gonna go out there.” But alas, Crosby appears to be closer to that latter percentage, with his play suffering the consequences of injury more than Garrett’s. You see, despite noticeably limping this past Sunday, Garrett still posted a league-best nine pressures last week, per PFF’s charting. Meanwhile, Crosby’s presence was hardly felt — a striking departure from his typical hair-on-fire demolition.

In a game that feels destined to be defined by the defenses, I’ll back the more-talented unit with the less-compromised star.

EDITOR’S UPDATE: On Friday, Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce announced that DE Maxx Crosby (ankle), WR Davante Adams (hamstring) and TE Michael Mayer (personal) will not play in Sunday’s game.

Why Dan picked the Ravens: The last time the Ravens played at home, they blew a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the Raiders, a team that was shellacked by the once-lowly Panthers the next week. Baltimore nearly coughed up an even bigger fourth-quarter lead in Week 3 against the Cowboys. For a squad that tends to run the ball down the opposition’s throat, Lamar Jackson and Co. are having a lot of trouble closing out games. It would help if Justin Tucker was making his kicks. Anyhow, maybe the script starts to flip on Sunday night. The Bills have been dominant the last two weeks, but the only team that gave them any trouble this season was the Cardinals, who held a 17-3 lead late in the second quarter of what turned into a 34-28 loss at Buffalo in the opener. Jackson can put the Bills’ defense on its heels like Kyler Murray did in Week 1, and perhaps a Ravens team learning from its mistakes will finish the job at home this time.

Why Ali picked the Cowboys: It’s been feast or famine for the Giants’ blitz-happy defense this season, with the unit generating 11 of its 14 total sacks when bringing the heat (five more than the next-closest team) while also allowing the seventh-highest passer rating (130.9) and ninth-highest completion percentage (69.7%). Dak Prescott‘s performance against extra rushers has been similarly hit or miss, with the veteran throwing for three TDs against zero picks but completing just 13 of 29 passes for a -12.0 percent CPOE (sixth-worst). The Cowboys must find a way to establish the run, which they’ve failed to do thus far this season, or New York’s star-studded D-line could make things very unpleasant for the Star’s three-time Pro Bowl passer. But unless that group is able to absolutely dominate Dallas’ front, I fear the injuries to the Giants’ already-susceptible secondary will allow the league’s highest-paid player to cash in multiple times en route to his 13th straight win over his division rival. Malik Nabers is a legit game-changer, but he doesn’t play both ways (yet).

Visit ResponsiblePlay.org to learn more about responsible betting.