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Tuesday’s MLB schedule is jam-packed, featuring a massive clash between the Philadelphia Phillies (45-20) and Boston Red Sox (33-33) at Fenway Park. The oncoming showdown begins at 7:10 p.m. ET and marks the start of a three-game inter-league series.
The Phillies will be on the hunt for revenge after Sunday’s 6-5 loss to the New York Mets ended their winning streak at four games. Conversely, the Red Sox are returning home after preventing a third straight loss with a 6-4 extra-innings win over the Chicago White Sox this weekend.
Can Philadelphia get back on track in Beantown? Or will Boston pull off the upset at home?
Tonight’s Phillies vs. Red Sox game isn’t a stranger to betting opportunities, so let’s highlight some as we dive into my predictions and best bets.
2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 31-22-0 (58.5%)
MLB Betting Today: Phillies vs Red Sox (6/11)
Phillies vs Red Sox Game Information
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (45-20, 18-10 Away) vs. Boston Red Sox (33-33, 14-18 Home)
- Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, MA)
- Date: Tuesday, June 11, 2024
- Game Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- How to Watch Phillies vs. Red Sox: NESN, TBS
Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Probable Pitchers
- Phillies: Zack Wheeler (13 starts — 7-3, 2.23 ERA)
- Red Sox: Kutter Crawford (13 starts — 2-5, 3.51 ERA)
Red Sox vs Phillies MLB Odds & Spread
Red Sox vs. Phillies MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday, June 11 at 10:06 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Phillies vs Red Sox Run Line
- Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-105)
- Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-115)
Red Sox vs Phillies Over/Under
- Over 8 Runs (-112)
- Under 8 Runs (-108)
Phillies vs Red Sox Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (-158)
- Boston Red Sox (+145)
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Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Betting Trends
- Philadelphia is 6-2 straight up in its last eight road games vs. Boston.
- Boston is 3-6 straight up in its last nine games vs. the NL East.
- The total hit the Under in four of Philadelphia’s last five road games.
- The total hit the Over in seven of Boston’s last nine games.
- The total hit the Over in four of the last seven Philadelphia-Boston matchups.
Phillies vs Red Sox Predictions & MLB Picks Today (6/11)
After collapsing against the Mets on Sunday, all eyes are on the Phillies to see if they can bounce back tonight. The good news for them is that the latest loss was a rare one. The National League leaders have been piling up wins throughout the year and the last few weeks are no different, having gone 7-2 SU across their last nine games.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have struggled to surpass the .500 mark throughout the 2024 season. They’ll fill their fans with hope by stringing together a few consecutive wins only to lose just as many games in a row to fall back to where they started.
Even with tonight’s game taking place at home, the Red Sox don’t have an advantage. Not only does their 43.8% winning percentage at home rank eighth-worst in the Majors, but they also dropped seven of their 11 previous outings at Fenway Park while being outscored by a 3.6-run margin in defeat.
The Phillies are 6-2 SU on their last eight trips to Fenway Park. Will that trend continue this evening?
It isn’t shocking to see the Phillies heavily favored on the road given that Zack Wheeler is making his 14th start of the campaign. BetOnline’s 2024 NL Cy Young favorite (+225) is 7-3 with a career-best 2.23 ERA with 91 strikeouts across 80 2/3 innings ahead of tonight. He’s also held each of his last four opponents to two or fewer earned runs while pitching at least six innings in each appearance.
Wheeler is also 1-1 with a 3.55 ERA in two career meetings against Boston, however, he’s yet to pitch at Fenway Park.
In other words, it’s going to take a lot for Kutter Crawford to outperform Wheeler. Although the Red Sox righty’s 3.51 ERA is a noticeable improvement over his 2023 performance (4.04), he’s been struggling to maintain his early-season success lately, allowing 15 earned runs and three homers in 16 1/3 innings in his last three starts — all losses for Boston.
Additionally, Crawford has dropped three consecutive home appearances while allowing four-plus earned runs each time.
Red Sox RHP Kutter Crawford’s performances have trended in the wrong direction lately.
The Phillies are the correct pick to win tonight’s game. The Red Sox just aren’t on the same level as the World Series contenders and their recent play at Fenway Park proves that fact. Philadelphia knows how to get the job done in Boston and that task will be easier to accomplish if Crawford’s struggles continue.
As a result, backing Philly to back the run line is a no-brainer. I just can’t trust the Red Sox with Crawford on the mound. They’re an abysmal 0-6 SU across his last six appearances, losing those games by an average of 4.0 runs. It’s clear that Boston just doesn’t play confidently when he starts.
Considering how the Phillies own the ninth-best ATS success rate as road favorites (52.4%), I see them winning by a decent margin.
Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Prediction: PHI wins
Best Phillies vs Red Sox Bet: PHI -1.5 (-105)
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Best Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Player Prop (6/11)
BetOnline is loaded with solid Phillies vs. Red Sox player props, including Kutter Crawford allowing over 2.5 earned runs (-130).
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After beginning the 2024 campaign with a mind-blowing 0.66 ERA through his first five starts, it’s safe to say Crawford has come back to earth. The 28-year-old hurler pitched to a less-than-inspiring 5.17 ERA in the eight starts that followed, surrendering at least three earned runs in five of those appearances. In fact, the Over is 3-0 in his last three games as well as 4-1 in his five previous home appearances.
Given that the Phillies boast the National League’s best offense, it’s best to keep expectations low regarding Crawford this evening.
Best Phillies vs Red Sox MLB Prop Bet: Kutter Crawford o2.5 Earned Runs (-130)
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