After an elongated break, the Stanley Cup Final is upon us. The matchup between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers promises to be one for the ages, featuring some of the NHL’s brightest stars. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will play for the Stanley Cup, a moment fans have anticipated for nearly a decade. Their speed and skill are expected to attract a wide audience, including those who may not typically follow hockey.
Florida Panthers: Depth and Defense
The Florida Panthers come into the series as slight favorites. They have made it to their second consecutive Stanley Cup Final not by relying on an extraordinary goaltending performance, but by being the better team in every series. Florida excels at keeping pucks out of dangerous areas, defending well, and playing a versatile game that allows them to win both physical and skill-based battles.
The Panthers depth is their strength. General Manager Bill Zito has built a formidable team by making several key trades and acquisitions. Bringing in players like Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Sam Reinhart has been crucial, while the defensive additions of Gustav Forsling and Brandon Montour have solidified the blue line. The bold move to hire Paul Maurice as head coach has also paid dividends, leading to back-to-back Finals appearances. At every key turn, Zito has hit a home run.
Edmonton Oilers: Star Power
The Edmonton Oilers, led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, have been a force to be reckoned with, particularly on special teams. This postseason, it has not been solely those two. Four of the top five scorers in the post season are Edmonton Oilers. Three Oilers, McDavid, Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard are averaging more than 1.5 points per game. Anyone averaging 1.5 points per game in the playoffs is incredible, but three?! That’s outrageous. Bouchard has been brilliant in the playoffs and I have a long shot Conn Smythe ticket on him at +6000. His odds are +1000 now, but if the Oilers win the Cup, Connor McDavid may be the easy pick. At +200, there isn’t much value there.
Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have been reliable contributors for the Oilers all season. Like McDavid and Draisaitl, they have elevated their play in the postseason. Zach Hyman to be the top goalscorer in the series at +370 is fun bet to take and one with some value. He leads the postseason in goals with 14 and is averaging 0.78 goals per game. That is unlikely to continue in the Cup Final, but it is conceivable that we scores 3 or 4 in the series and that would likely make him the leading goal scorer of the Final.
Special Teams Matchup
Their combined special teams percentage is an impressive 131.2%, and they have not allowed a shorthanded goal since Game 3 of the second round, boasting a streak of 28 consecutive penalty kills. Florida’s powerplay has been middle of the pack in the playoffs, but they present more offensive weapons and a different style that may cause Edmonton some trouble.
The Oilers’ power play is unlike any other, with multiple weapons that can capitalize on even the slightest mistake. The Panthers penalty kill penalty kill has been a key area of success, maintaining an 88.2% success rate in the postseason. This will be crucial against the Oilers, whose power play is operating at an astounding 37.3% efficiency in the playoffs. Florida’s penalty killers will need to be at their best, applying pressure in the neutral zone and making smart reads to disrupt Edmonton’s rhythm. The Panthers have players who can hound the Oilers on bobbled pucks, disrupt zone entries and make the Oilers more uncomfortable than the Kings, Canucks or Stars did.
Key Matchup: McDavid vs. Barkov
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of the series is the matchup between Connor McDavid and Sasha Barkov. Barkov, known for his elite two-way play, will be tasked with containing McDavid, who is the best player in the world. McDavid’s speed and skill require a five-man defensive effort, and no one has successfully shut him down in his career.
For Florida to succeed, Barkov will need to keep McDavid at bay. To do so, he will need to get to McDavid before he gains full speed, alter his path, and preventing him from dictating the game through the neutral zone. If Barkov can limit McDavid’s impact, he will be a strong candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy, awarded to the playoff MVP (+380). McDavid leads the playoffs in scoring with 31 points, 11 more than the highest scoring Florida Panther (Matthew Tkachuk). Keeping him at less than a point per game is a tall task, but an important one to Florida’s hopes of a first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
How To Bet
Most analysts and fans have the Panthers as favorites, but the betting lines suggest a much closer series. The sportsbooks have the Panthers with a slight edge, giving them a 51.7% chance to win the series. This near-even split reflects the unpredictable nature of the matchup. The series is expected to be tightly contested, with the potential for many one-goal games. A short series with close scores could easily swing in favor of either team, depending on who gets the better bounces.
A few bets to keep an eye on for the series. Florida to lead 2-1 after Game 3 (+200) as they hold home ice advantage in the series. Each team to score 2+ goals in each game of the series at (+1050) has lots of value. Given the special teams, the star power and the goaltending in the series, this is worth a sprinkle. Series to end in 6 game (+200) is the most likely outcome in my model at 36%, giving this line 3% value.
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A Tale of Two Outcomes
The series will likely come down to a few key factors: the performance of the top centers and defensemen, and the play of the goalies. If the Panthers’ depth prevails, it will be a testament to their consistent excellence throughout the season. On the other hand, if McDavid and Draisaitl lead the Oilers to victory, it will underscore the impact of having two of the best players in the game.
