Two World Series contenders face off tonight at Citizens Bank Park as the Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Yankees. The visitors got the best of the hosts last night, as New York secured a 14-4 victory over the NL East leaders. Now just half a game back on the Orioles in their own division, the Yankees will look to win this series tonight and gaining ground in the AL East. While the Phillies are running away with their own division, they have dropped 4 of their last 5 and are just 3-7 since the All Star Break. A win is much needed for the Phillies, and luckily they’ve got Aaron Nola on the mound.
The Phillies are 38-19 at home this year, and with Nola on the mound, I do like their chances. There isn’t much change between his home and away splits, and he’s tied for 5th in wins this season. His WHIP does drop below 1.00 at home this year but it will be tough against the Yankees’ bats.
The Yankees have won three straight games, all on being on the road. They are 36-22 away from home this season, and hits .251 overall, .258 on the road and .257 against RHP. New York has scored 33 runs in their past 3 games, and are hitting .291 as a team since the All Star Break. Gerrit Cole is still coming back from injury, and he lost his last start, giving up 3 home runs to the Mets.
Can he bounce back against this tough Phillies lineup? Or will the home team secure a victory over the Yankees?
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies: Two Contenders Face Off
Aaron Nola has a sub 1.00 WHIP at home this season
Game Information – Yankees vs Phillies
- Venue & Location: Citizens Bank Park (Philadelphia, PA)
- Date: Tuesday, July 30th, 2024
- First Pitch: 6:40pm Eastern
- Broadcast: TBS
Yankees vs Phillies Starting Pitchers
- New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole (3-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Aaron Nola (11-4, 3.44 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)
Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Yankees +1.5 (-198)
- Phillies -1.5 (+173)
Money Line
- Yankees +103
- Phillies -113
Total
- Over 9 (-115)
- Under 9 (-105)
Will Phillies Find a Way to Win?
Can the Phillies turn things around tonight against the Yankees?
Like I said, the Phillies are struggling right now. The team is just 3-7 post All Star Break, yet they still lead the NL East by 8.5 games over the Braves. But, there is still plenty of baseball left, and the Braves just acquired Jorge Soler from the Giants. Atlanta may be pushing to catch the slumping Phillies. They have no easy task as they face a Yankees squad that is hitting nearly .300 over the past 10 games.
Two Studs on the Mound
Aaron Nola is coming off two no decisions since the break, but had won two straight games prior to that. He has allowed 7 earned runs in his L3 home outings, but there are some Yankee batters who love hitting his stuff. Juan Soto bats .278 with 36 at bats against Nola, Giancarlo Stanton hits .313 on 16 at bats, and even Aaron Judge hits .333 off of 6 at bats. Some of those are part of a smaller sample size, but regardless, New York has been seeing the ball well.
The same cannot be said for the Phillies. They hit .256 as a team, but jump up to .260 at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies hit just .251 against RHP, and they are hitting just .229 in 10 games since the break. They are scoring just 3.9 runs in their L10 games, which is down from 4.87 over the course of the season. Gerrit Cole is coming off a loss in which he allowed 6 runs on 8 hits in just 5.2 innings. He allowed 3 home runs and walked 2 batters as the Yankees lost, 12-3.
Despite a rocky first road outing, Cole has had two solid outings away from home since. He allowed just 2 runs on 8 combined hits in 11 innings against the Orioles and Blue Jays, both on the road. But like Nola, he faces some hitters who have great history against him. Nick Castellanos hits .389 in 18 at bats, J.T. Realmuto hits .550 in 20 at bats, and new Phillie Austin Hays hits .294 over 17 at bats against Cole. Ultimately, we have two very good pitchers facing very tough lineups, however the Yankees are hitting much better than the Phillies currently.
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets
Can the Yankees make it 4 straight wins on the road?
Yankees vs Phillies Prediction: Yankees Win
Best Bet: NYY/PHI Over 9 (-120) BetOnline
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Look, the Yankees have been clearing this line by themselves recently, and I don’t necessarily trust either pitcher. They haven’t been up to standard the past few starts, and you cannot deny the way New York is hitting the ball. With Philadelphia being at home, I think this helps their offensive firepower as well, although that has not been the case recently. Now is as good a time as ever to turn things around, and the Phillies want to be a well oiled machine going into the MLB Playoffs. This over is my best bet of the night, as I think both offense are able to produce plenty of runs tonight at the Bank.
Who doesn’t love rooting for an over?
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