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You have lineup questions, we have lineup answers — at least we hope so. Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em is here to help fantasy managers make difficult roster decisions. And you know what is a good move? Starting CeeDee Lamb. But that’s too obvious, so you won’t see such simple analysis here. Instead, we’re exploring more debatable situations. And if you can’t find a player you are looking for, please check out the latest NFL Fantasy lineup rankings.
Start ‘Em
Allen might have finished with just four catches for 29 yards in Week 1, but volume is what we care about in fantasy. Of the 29 passes Caleb Williams threw, 11 went Allen’s way. He had 105 air yards, while the other Bears pass-catchers combined for 119. He also logged Chicago’s two end-zone targets. If you’re still not convinced, Allen was Williams’ first read 35 percent of the time, per Fantasy Points Data. That is elite usage and should not be ignored. Rome Odunze‘s MCL sprain could mean an even bigger workload for Allen, presuming we can take DJ Moore at his word that Allen’s own heel issue won’t be a problem. He needs to be started against a Texans secondary that was torched by the deep ball, especially given the potential that the Bears end up chasing points.
The Jamo breakout is happening! If you are new here, I have been a Williams stan since he came out of college. Funny what finally having a normal offseason can do for a player! We have long known Williams is an elite downfield weapon, but what we saw in Week 1 was elite usage. Williams paced Detroit in targets with nine, and his 127 air yards not only led the team, but it was tops by more than 90 yards. Plus, he was Jared Goff‘s first read on 43 percent of his throws, the second-highest such mark in the NFL in Week 1, per Fantasy Points Data. And now he gets to face the Bucs, who allowed the fourth-most yards to receivers last season — and that was with Carlton Davis, who became Williams’ teammate via trade this offseason. Williams needs to be started in Week 2.
Speaking of elite usage, let me reintroduce you to Godwin. He led Bucs receivers in routes (27), targets (eight), catches (eight) and receiving yards (83) in Week 1, while running 44.4 percent of his routes from the slot. He also scored a touchdown and finished with 22.3 fantasy points. He is always going to take a back seat in air yards and end-zone targets, due to Mike Evans‘ presence. But after a down fantasy season in 2023, Godwin was a natural candidate for positive regression with some better touchdown luck. His upside is even higher if his slot usage increases. Godwin brings a safe floor, with a potentially high-scoring indoor game in Detroit providing an additional ceiling.
I know — I had high hopes for Nabers in Week 1, and it did not work out. You had better believe I’m starting him with confidence in Week 2 against the Commanders, though. Nabers is by far the Giants’ best receiver. He created 3.9 yards of separation against the Vikings in Week 1, per Next Gen Stats, and was the only Giants receiver to post a positive EPA when targeted. Second, the matchup is the best a receiver could ask for. Washington allowed the most yards and touchdowns to receivers last year and was just torched by the Bucs for another four scores in Week 1. Plus, Daniel Jones has a track record of success against them. I am not giving up on Nabers.
This one may come as bit of a shock, but Coleman was the Bills’ top pass-catching option in Week 1. He led Buffalo receivers in offensive snaps (73%), routes (22), targets (five), catches (four) and yards (51), and he recorded one of two end-zone targets. He was Josh Allen‘s first read on a third of his throws, per Fantasy Points Data. Coleman also drew a defensive pass interference flag, which might not count for fantasy but should go a long way with a coaching staff. I had concerns the Bills would take it slow with the rookie out of the gate, but they did the exact opposite. That sort of volume is enough to get him in lineups in 12-team leagues that start at least three receivers, especially considering this has the potential of being a very high-scoring game, as well as Allen’s track record of success against Miami. The Bills might try to show off their new toy on a national broadcast like the Chiefs did with Xavier Worthy a week ago. (Khalil Shakir is a deeper flex play, but his usage was far from ideal in Week 1.)
Sit ‘Em
I am a huge fan of Wisconsin Deebo. But if Malik Willis starts in place of Jordan Love for the Packers, you cannot trust any of their receivers, even their top option. Before being traded to Green Bay this summer, Willis started three NFL games and appeared in a handful more with the Titans. He has yet to throw for 100 yards in any game, and his next NFL touchdown pass will be his first. He has also never had a pass-catcher reach 50 yards in any of his starts. I am rooting for Willis, and maybe Matt LaFleur can get the most out of him. But I am not risking my fantasy week on it. Thus, I’m sitting all Packers not named Josh Jacobs.
I love me some Calvin Ridley, but this is not the week to start him. He saw volume in Week 1, and with a couple better throws, he would have had a huge day. QB Will Levis really struggled against a tough Bears defense. Now he gets the Jets, who might have the best defense in the league. Ridley ran about a third of his routes out wide from the left side, which is typically Sauce Gardner territory. While the Jets don’t move Sauce often, my fear is they let him shadow the one clear threat in this passing attack. There is too much volatility for me to trust him in this matchup.
Yes, Johnson was my guy all summer long. No, I am not giving in already. In fact, in leagues where I start three receivers and a flex or two, I am still starting Johnson. But in the leagues where I start just two receivers and a flex, I am getting away from him. The Panthers’ offense looked broken in Week 1, when Johnson recorded six targets for two catches and 19 yards. There is still time for things to change, but until Carolina’s outlook improves, it’s OK to play it safe with Johnson.
Even with Bo Nix having to throw 42 times while the Broncos chased the Seahawks for most of Sunday, Sutton finished with just four catches for 38 yards. He did have a whopping 12 targets, which might have some of you considering plugging him into your lineup. But Nix could be in for a long day against T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh defense, and the game might lend itself to Steelers-brand football: lots of running, lots of field goals and not so many points. That is not the kind of environment I want my starting wide receiver in, regardless of how many targets he saw last week.
The first receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft is still waiting his turn behind the two vets in Seattle. Smith-Njigba played more snaps than Tyler Lockett in Week 1, but he was behind both Lockett and DK Metcalf in terms of targets, finishing with just two, logging 6 air yards. He was the first read on one throw, per Fantasy Points Data. There is no way anyone could succeed, fantasy-wise, with that sort of role. Now he faces a Patriots team that just made life very tough on the Bengals. Seattle-New England could easily become a lower-scoring matchup. There still is long-term upside with JSN, but until we see more signs of progress, he should not be started in fantasy.
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