The Minnesota Twins travel to New York to take on the Mets, and this is the 3rd and final game of this series in which the home team has dominated. The Mets took the Braves for 15 runs on Monday, winning 15-2 and then shut them out last night in a 2-0 victory. While New York is gaining some momentum in the NL East, they are still well behind the Phillies for first place. The Twins are moving in the opposite direction as they are now tied with the Royals for 2nd place in the AL Central.
Both teams are in desperate need of a win, but can the Twins avoid being swept on the road?
Minnesota is just 4-6 since the All Star Break, and they’ve lost 3/5 on this road trip. With an off day tomorrow, I’m sure the Twins are ready to get back home and reset against the White Sox. But today they still have to face Luis Severino and the Mets. Severino’s splits improve drastically at home, with his ERA dropping from 3.58 to 2.88, and he’s had two solid outings since the break. In his last 2 starts, Severino has pitched 11 innings, allowing just 2 runs on 9 hits while sitting down 13 batters. He is 1-0 in those outings, while the Mets have won both games.
His only home loss was back in March in the first series of the year, and it’s tough to ignore his recent performance. Can he keep it up today against the Twins? Or will Minnesota find a way to beat the Mets on the road?
Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets: Pitching Duel This Afternoon
Lopez has 135 strikeouts for the Twins this year
Game Information – Twins vs Mets
- Venue & Location: Citi Field (Queens, NY)
- Date: Wednesday, July 31st, 2024
- First Pitch: 1:10pm Eastern
Twins vs Mets Starting Pitchers
- Minnesota Twins: Pablo Lopez (9-7, 4.73 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
- New York Mets: Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
Betting Odds
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Run Line
- Twins -1.5 (+155)
- Mets +1.5 (-175)
Money Line
- Twins -112
- Mets +102
Total
- Over 8 (-126)
- Under 8 (+106)
Will Severino Shove at Home?
Luis Severino pitched very well in his last 3 starts
Severino’s ERA drops at home, and it also drops in day games as well, hovering just north of 3.00 at 3.07. He is 3-1 in his 9 day time starts this season, and the Twins bats have been slumping. The Twins hit .252 as a team, but .242 on the road and .244 against RHP. Although they have been hitting .262 in the month of July, that number is just .229 since the All Star Break. They are in desperate need of a win, but can their bats come alive at the right time?
On the other side of things, Pablo Lopez is getting the nod for the Twins. Lopez is looking for his 10th win of the season, and his splits actually improve on the road this year. His ERA drops nearly half a run to 4.36, his WHIP down to 1.03, and those improve even more in Day Games. In 10 daytime starts, Lopez has a 3.22 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. He is 6-2 in those 10 starts, so clearly he enjoys pitching in this afternoon matchups.
He’s struck out 7 batters in each of this L2 starts, allowing a combined 3 runs on 10 hits in total innings. The Twins have not lost on the road with Lopez on the mound since June 6th at Yankee Stadium, and I don’t see them starting now. I trust the Twins to avoid the sweep, even with how Severino has been on the mound. Ironically enough, the Mets splits drop drastically at home and during the day. New York hits .250 as a team, but only .246 against RHP. At home they hit .234, and only hit .235 in day games.
With these two studs on the mound, with improving splits in their conditions, my gut is heavily leaning towards the under in this match.
Minnesota Twins vs New York Mets Best Bets
Royce Lewis is back in action for the Twins this season
Twins vs Mets Prediction: Twins Win
Best Bet: MIN/NYM Under 8 (+106) BetOnline
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Once again, plus money and push potential. There are some 8.5’s out there for around (-115), but I see a huge pitching duel tonight. Both these teams bats have been struggling, and I am heavily leaning on the Mets to struggle during the daytime as they have all season long. With Lopez and Severino both enjoying the early afternoon action, I could see hitters on both sides having a tough time at the plate. Both teams have a travel day tomorrow, and I’m sure are looking forward to getting some rest. With that in mind, I see the pitchers dueling today at Citi Field.
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