Nikola Jokic and Serbia form just one potentially high-caliber obstacle for Team USA.
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The biggest threat to the USA in the men’s Olympic basketball knockout round appears to be … the USA.
That’s a commentary on how powerful the Americans have shown to be in this tournament — and also on the overall perceived threat of the remaining seven teams in the Olympics.
There’s no Argentina with Manu Ginobili, or Spain with the Gasol Brothers, or obviously the former Soviet Union from long ago which at least gave the USA (then without professional players) something to think about.
Also, in the past, most of the great basketball countries outside the US brought mature and cohesive teams to the Olympics, with players who were very familiar with one another, who were national team ‘mates since they were teenagers. That’s not necessarily the case with this collection of countries.
The other seven remaining teams do have certain assets and strengths, yet they’re also flawed enough to make this week very clear — the gold medal is Team USA’s to lose.
Here’s a look at the seven teams that’ll join the USA in the quarterfinals and how they measure up in what looks like a race to grab silver and bronze:
Canada
The folks from Up North are digging in their sneakers and poised to make a stand. The Canadiens believe they have a solid shot at a medal, and who is anyone to argue when such team is led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
Quite honestly, if they don’t medal, it would be disappointing. This 2024 team is the direct result of the growth of basketball in Canada over the last few decades, fueled by the NBA’s Toronto Raptors franchise. Either their current players — Shai, RJ Barrett (who’s averaging 21.7 points in this tournament) and Jamal Murray — grew up watching Vince Carter and Tracy McGrady or their fathers did. Credit also goes to the Steve Nash effect.
There are 10 NBA players on the roster, more than anyone except the USA. And here they are, looking to upgrade the bronze medal they won last year in the World Cup.
Canada has taken care of business for the most part, sweeping its way through group play with big efforts from Barrett and Gilgeous-Alexander. They’re in a tough bracket this week, with France on tap next. Murray hasn’t looked like Playoff Jamal Murray yet. Still, this team has a medal mindset. And please, for drama’s sake, give us Dillon Brooks vs. LeBron James in the gold medal game.
Germany
What country is the world’s reigning title holder? If you guessed the US, take another swing at the plate. It’s Germany, winner of last summer’s World Cup, and a country that still hasn’t lost a game since the start of that tournament. Unbeaten then, unbeaten now.
The Germans are getting used to winning, and that’s a good thing to carry into the knockout phase. Better to believe you’re the favorite even if you’re not.
Speaking of swagger, this team has all the drip. It starts with Dennis Schroder (19.7 points per game), whose tricky dribble and change-of-pace game poses a problem for opposing guards. There’s also Franz Wagner (21.7); maybe you saw his hand-switching dunk over Victor Wembanyama in group play?
Germany was never taken very seriously in international play, even during the Dirk Nowitzki years. That has changed abruptly. Schroder, the Wagner Brothers and even Daniel Theis are aiming to introduce a new conversation and rewrite Germany’s chilly Olympic medal history.
France
Sacre bleu, there’s a sense of angst permeating through the land because France … might … could … miss out on a medal! Let’s just say it’s iffy right now for the home team, if only because the French already lost a game (to Germany), appeared vulnerable at other times (needing overtime to beat Japan) in group play and are locked in the tough side of the bracket with Canada and Germany.
Just the same, France could put it all together this week and spare itself the potential embarrassment. With Wembanyama on board and the boisterous French fans supplying an emotional boost, sure, France does have some advantages.
But France needs to find a rhythm, or else. Of all the decent medal favorites, the French seem the shakiest. The Wemby-Rudy Gobert combo has yet to send a chill through the opposition, and guard play seems inconsistent.
Serbia
This team has yet to assemble a performance against a quality team that would give anyone the belief that it can cause trouble. Nikola Jokic is a very convincing argument by himself, but that’s the problem — he seems by himself.
The Serbs are bringing decent players, but none that are keeping opposing coaches sleepless. Even their narrow win over South Sudan was aided (according to South Sudan) by some generous officiating.
Anyway, Serbia has a potentially tough quarterfinal against Australia, then what would be a third game this summer against the USA, in the semifinals, where Joe Embiid, Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo would be waiting for Jokic.
Australia
The Boomers are fortunate to make it this far after losing two out of three in group play. They then had to sweat out Canada’s win over Spain that allowed the Aussies to qualify on point differential.
That’s a long-winded way of saying this team, despite a rich international basketball history, has its work cut out for it — although it did draw Serbia in the quarters, a team just as so-so.
At least Josh Giddey is following the footsteps of Patty Mills, Shane Heal and Andrew Gaze by giving the Boomers solid all-around play. For someone who was tossed overboard by Oklahoma City this summer, this experience could be a wakeup for Giddey, who’s averaging 15 points, 8.7 rebounds and 6.7 assists.
Greece
The most dominant player in these Olympics? That would be Giannis Antetokounmpo, the leading total points scorer in this tournament. The Greek superstar terrorized everyone who stood before him in group play — and mostly that was two and three players in his face.
But impactful? No disrespect, but Giannis has only been able to do so much for a team hurting for talent. Poor Giannis is carrying the Greeks on his shoulders, and even a former MVP has his limits in these knee-buckling situations.
Greece labored last month just to qualify Greece for the Olympics, and the chore has only gotten tougher. But Greece and Giannis did make it through group play. So that’s a victory, and a big one all things considered.
Brazil
Not only is Brazil thrilled just to make it this far, but the Brazilians’ reward is a date with Team USA in the quarterfinals. Their stay could be short.
Brazil has spunk, though, and is hardly short on effort. What the Brazilians lack in NBA talent, they compensate with energy. Also, if Vitor Benite gets hot, the Americans will be forced to adjust. He’s shooting 59% from the floor and 56% from deep.
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Shaun Powell has covered the NBA for more than 25 years. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
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