If there was a division as a whole with plenty of bulletin board material to motivate it ahead of the 2024 season, it would be the NFC South.
At least that’s Baker Mayfield‘s take, and he’s probably not wrong.
Gone are the days of Drew Brees and Tom Brady, and with them perhaps went lofty aspirations for those within the division. Mayfield believes the NFC South is on its way up, though.
“This division, obviously it’s going to continue to improve,” Mayfield said Tuesday, via team transcript. “Everybody wants to hate on the NFC South but it’s a competitive division.”
Being competitive and being part of the conference or league hierarchy aren’t one and the same, though.
There’s plenty of statistical evidence as to why the NFC South gets hated on, to paraphrase Mayfield, whose stellar play in 2023 led the Buccaneers to their third straight division title and him to a first-ever Pro Bowl selection, along with a lucrative extension.
Since the 2021 season, the NFC South is still statistically the worst division in the conference and second-worst in the NFL record-wise.
In the winter of 2021, the Buccaneers were on top of the NFL world. Tom Brady and the Bucs won Super Bowl LV to end the 2020 campaign and, as is often forgotten, they didn’t even win the NFC South. It was the New Orleans Saints who claimed the division title.
It was also the last time the division has sent multiple teams to the playoffs.
The Buccaneers are 30-21 since 2021, standing as the only team in the division (Saints, 25-26; Atlanta Falcons, 21-30; Carolina Panthers, 14-37) with a winning record. In that span, the NFC South’s combined 90-114 record equates to a .441 winning percentage, good for second-worst behind the AFC South (85-117; .422), according to NFL Research.
The division also has a combined negative-301 point differential, per NFL Research. That’s also second-worst to only the AFC South.
The Mayfield-led Bucs made some noise with a run to the Divisional Round last season and gave the Detroit Lions all they could handle in their playoff loss.
Still, Tampa, which is vying for its fourth straight division crown, went just 9-8 in the regular season.
“We started to do the little things right and that’s why we’re harping on everybody doing their job and being extremely focused on the details even more so this year,” said Mayfield, who’s headed into his third NFC South season after last year with the Bucs and playing part of the 2022 campaign with the Panthers. “That’s why I think we’ve improved as the offseason and training camp goes on. That’s why I feel like we can say we have an identity. It’s different when you go out there and run plays and you see what you’re really good at against other defenses, but we feel like we know who we are at this point.”
In 2023, the Bucs had a promising start in the early going, producing a 3-1 record, but then lost six of their next seven, before a strong finish. That finish, in which the Buccaneers won five of six, came with three victories against division adversaries.
That was last year, though, and Mayfield is predicting a much tougher division in 2024.
“Atlanta has made some big splashes free agency-wise, and everybody is excited about it, but everybody was excited about the Saints doing the same thing last year, as well,” Mayfield said. “For us — [head coach] Todd [Bowles] mentions it almost every day — compete against yourself, try to get better each day, take care of the small things one step at a time and see where you’re at in the end.
“It’s not just about the division, it’s about the big thing at the end. But you’ve got to start there [in the division] and build up from there. Obviously, our schedule is what it is, but our division is improving so we’ve got to be prepared week-in and week-out, and that’s just the nature of this league anyway. I’m excited about the improved competition that we have.”
