Happy Monday!
Welcome back after an incredible Sunday! While today’s slate may not be the flashiest, we’re digging deep to uncover some valuable prop bets worth considering. I’ve identified a couple of hitters with outstanding matchup ratings and enticing prop prices that are too good to ignore. Let’s dive in!
Top MLB Prop Bets for Monday’s Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio. Picks are always free.
Yesterday’s write up swept 2-0. Shohei did not homer, but we do not worry about sprinkle plays.
Andres Chaparro 1+ Hit (-150)
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Nationals young stud, Andres Chaparro
The Stank:
WHO!?
Nationals third baseman Andres Chaparro is currently at the top of Batters-Box.com’s default ratings and holds an elite rating for the current season. He also leads the slate in both matchup wOBA and ISO. The 25-year-old is coming off a 1-for-4 performance with a double and a run against the Marlins on Sunday.
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet” data-media-max-width=”560″><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Ryan Borucki's soul left his body when Andrés Chaparro connected on his pitch <br><br>(via <a href=”https://twitter.com/Nationals?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>@Nationals</a>) <br> <a href=”https://t.co/jfOxGIT8lW”>pic.twitter.com/jfOxGIT8lW</a></p>— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) <a href=”https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1832585735888666831?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>September 8, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
Chaparro will face Mets starter Sean Manaea, who recently pitched 109 pitches against the Blue Jays, allowing just three hits and one run. The 32-year-old veteran boasts one of the best sinkers in the game, with a pitch value of 15, one of the highest I’ve seen this season. Manaea’s sinker constitutes 42% of his pitch repertoire among his five-pitch arsenal.
Although Chaparro hasn’t posted the most impressive numbers against sinkers this season, I expect Manaea to come out somewhat sluggish after his extensive outing. Given the value of Chaparro as the top-rated hitter and the favorable odds for him to record a hit, I believe he is a strong play. He should bat in the top four of the lineup tonight, providing him with at least four opportunities to secure a base hit.
Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120)
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The Stank:
Another top-rated hitter today is Astros star Kyle Tucker, who holds the number one matchup rating for the current season on Batters-Box.com. The 27-year-old has been consistent since returning from his injury, batting .250 with an OPS of .783 and an OBP of .367.
Tonight, he faces 38-year-old Yu Darvish, who has struggled in recent outings. Darvish has allowed three home runs over his last two starts and is averaging 6.5 hits allowed per game in his last four starts.
Darvish throws a variety of breaking balls, but none are particularly dominant. Tucker has posted solid numbers against most breaking and off-speed pitches this season.
Given Tucker’s strong matchup rating and his current form, I’m confident in this play. I’ll also be adding his home run to my picks; although he has only one since returning from injury, he’s due for a breakout week.
Sprinkles of the day:
- Kyle Tucker Home Run (+350)
- Andres Chaparro Home Run (+600)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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